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Forums - Movies & TV - The Fans Have Spoken, Last Jedi Drops A Massive 68%

Insidb on 21 March 2018
Soundwave said:
Insidb said:

TFA completely invalidates this argument, which is why people aren't taking this seriously anymore. Most of your points have been picked apart by very credible arguments. You can't just say, "but episodes 1-3" and have it justify your other points. TFA, RO, and TLJ all won their box office years. TFA is the #1 domestic film OF ALL TIME. It's the #2 film OF ALL TIME. You can't talk about originality, when most of Cameron's works have apparently been lifted from other source material. You can't talk cultural phenomenon, when Star Wars has been part of culture for over 40 YEARS.

ALL of Cameron's films have made about $6.5B, while the Star Wars films have made nearly $9B. You know what, though, that's just the films: Star Wars, as a franchise, has made nearly $45B. It's clearly not "failing" or "crapping the bed," because 8 more films are slated and it's been making billions since the prequels.

In the context of this thread, my points are fair. Star Wars is not some "never miss" franchise that hasn't had multiple previous entries that have been poorly received by large groups of people. It has been over shadowed multiple times by other film properties too. I'm not saying Star Wars isn't popular (obviously it is), but this notion put forth by the OP that it's always been this holy, unsurmountable, infallible IP until The Last Jedi is laughable. 

There really probably hasn't been a truly great Star Wars films since the early 1980s, The Force Awakens is probably the best of the bunch since then and I'd say it's no better than something like Avatar, probably a tad worse. 

Also if you look at Star Wars film box office post 1977, TFA and TPM are outliers because they have a decade+ of pent up hype/build-up you look at other Star Wars films without benefit of that and there's a steep drop off in box office, so that's been happening for years now, The Last Jedi is if anything just falling into line with that. 

Just for the record, while (predictably) a large step down from the OT, I do think the Disney Star Wars films are still a good deal better than the prequels. The Disney movies at least recapture much of the grittier feel of the original Star Wars films whereas the prequels had gone full cartoon/cheese/kiddie tone that didn't feel like the originals at all. The acting, dialogue, scene staging doesn't feel like an embarrassing junior high play. At least the characters in these new movies feel like real people in a lived in universe and not some kid's toy box come to life, for that I'll give them credit. 

This man likes to hedge his bets, folks: the less Lucas is involved in directing, the better.

I think their takes tend to be parabolic and not simply decreasing, but the first entry tends to gross the highest.



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haxxiy on 21 March 2018

It's hard to say how the SW are performing on an overall trend and how it's going to be. Any comparison between movies and trilogies has to take into account dozens of different factors which make every movie, and the ones before and after it, quite unique, so any trend here is more likely to be coincidence rather than a pattern. There is no pattern, anyway, can be derived from a sample of two, such as it is the case of the following SW trilogies after the first one.



 

 

 

 

 

Mandalore76 on 23 March 2018
Soundwave said:
Insidb said:

TFA completely invalidates this argument, which is why people aren't taking this seriously anymore. Most of your points have been picked apart by very credible arguments. You can't just say, "but episodes 1-3" and have it justify your other points. TFA, RO, and TLJ all won their box office years. TFA is the #1 domestic film OF ALL TIME. It's the #2 film OF ALL TIME. You can't talk about originality, when most of Cameron's works have apparently been lifted from other source material. You can't talk cultural phenomenon, when Star Wars has been part of culture for over 40 YEARS.

ALL of Cameron's films have made about $6.5B, while the Star Wars films have made nearly $9B. You know what, though, that's just the films: Star Wars, as a franchise, has made nearly $45B. It's clearly not "failing" or "crapping the bed," because 8 more films are slated and it's been making billions since the prequels.

In the context of this thread, my points are fair. Star Wars is not some "never miss" franchise that hasn't had multiple previous entries that have been poorly received by large groups of people. It has been over shadowed multiple times by other film properties too. I'm not saying Star Wars isn't popular (obviously it is), but this notion put forth by the OP that it's always been this holy, unsurmountable, infallible IP until The Last Jedi is laughable. 

There really probably hasn't been a truly great Star Wars films since the early 1980s, The Force Awakens is probably the best of the bunch since then and I'd say it's no better than something like Avatar, probably a tad worse. 

Also if you look at Star Wars film box office post 1977, TFA and TPM are outliers because they have a decade+ of pent up hype/build-up you look at other Star Wars films without benefit of that and there's a steep drop off in box office, so that's been happening for years now, The Last Jedi is if anything just falling into line with that. 

Just for the record, while (predictably) a large step down from the OT, I do think the Disney Star Wars films are still a good deal better than the prequels. The Disney movies at least recapture much of the grittier feel of the original Star Wars films whereas the prequels had gone full cartoon/cheese/kiddie tone that didn't feel like the originals at all. The acting, dialogue, scene staging doesn't feel like an embarrassing junior high play. At least the characters in these new movies feel like real people in a lived in universe and not some kid's toy box come to life, for that I'll give them credit. 

"Revenge of the Sith" is light years better than any of the Disney Star Wars films.  While "The Phantom Menace" and "Attack of the Clones" weren't great, at least they weren't carbon copies of the original series locations and plots.  "The Force Awakens" was practically a shot for shot remake of the original Star Wars.  I get it that, that's what sells these days.  But if I want to see a movie about a novice force user orphaned on a desert planet looking for some secret schematics at the same time an evil empire is searching for them while getting aided by a smuggler and his Wookie companion with an escape from said secret empire's planet destroying base complete with trench scene battle climax, I'm going to just watch "A New Hope" again, not "The Force Awakens".  "Rogue One" was okay, but really only memorable for the Darth Vader fan service at the end.  "The Last Jedi" was a hot mess that felt more like a Seth McFarlane spoof than an actual Star Wars movie.   You don't think that movie had kiddy, cheesy dialogue?  Seriously?  There were entire scenes that felt like they were lifted from the "Blue Harvest" episode of Family Guy and the Robot Chicken Star Wars parodies.



Jumpin on 23 March 2018
Insidb said:
Jumpin said:

Ever notice how Avatar is the only major film that is called unoriginal, despite being more original than the vast majority of blockbusters? I wonder why that is?

TROLOLOLOLOLOL:

https://www.cinemablend.com/new/Your-Guide-James-Cameron-Many-Avatar-Lawsuits-Which-Might-Actually-Work-36439.html

https://io9.gizmodo.com/a-history-of-plagiarism-claims-against-james-cameron-690974718

 

Also, "there remains a nagging suspicion that the plot of Avatar borrowed more surreptitiously from less litigable source material: the epic Kevin Costner western Dances With Wolves or the animated musical FernGully: The Last Rainforest, for instance, both of which feature native tribes who come under threat from outsiders and a central romance between a local female and a sympathetic member of the invading race:"

https://www.theguardian.com/film/filmblog/2017/jun/06/avatar-why-no-one-cares-about-a-sequel-to-the-worlds-most-successful-movie

Ever see a movie that features a superhero battling a super villain?
Are you saying that story is less common and therefore more original than Avatar?

You've fallen into the trap of confirmation bias. You believe something, and you find an article that points out something that you think proves your belief; then you ignore the abundance of widely available evidence that disproves your belief.

Last edited by Jumpin - on 23 March 2018

I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

VGPolyglot on 23 March 2018
haxxiy said:

It's hard to say how the SW are performing on an overall trend and how it's going to be. Any comparison between movies and trilogies has to take into account dozens of different factors which make every movie, and the ones before and after it, quite unique, so any trend here is more likely to be coincidence rather than a pattern. There is no pattern, anyway, can be derived from a sample of two, such as it is the case of the following SW trilogies after the first one.

It'll be much easier to determine once Episode IX comes out, I want to see if that will perform better or poorer than Episodes VII and VIII.



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Insidb on 24 March 2018
Jumpin said:
Insidb said:

TROLOLOLOLOLOL:

https://www.cinemablend.com/new/Your-Guide-James-Cameron-Many-Avatar-Lawsuits-Which-Might-Actually-Work-36439.html

https://io9.gizmodo.com/a-history-of-plagiarism-claims-against-james-cameron-690974718

 

Also, "there remains a nagging suspicion that the plot of Avatar borrowed more surreptitiously from less litigable source material: the epic Kevin Costner western Dances With Wolves or the animated musical FernGully: The Last Rainforest, for instance, both of which feature native tribes who come under threat from outsiders and a central romance between a local female and a sympathetic member of the invading race:"

https://www.theguardian.com/film/filmblog/2017/jun/06/avatar-why-no-one-cares-about-a-sequel-to-the-worlds-most-successful-movie

Ever see a movie that features a superhero battling a super villain?
Are you saying that story is less common and therefore more original than Avatar?

You've fallen into the trap of confirmation bias. You believe something, and you find an article that points out something that you think proves your belief; then you ignore the abundance of widely available evidence that disproves your belief.

I've shared several articles that verify my point that many other posters have stated; that's not confirmation bias: it's called, "consensus," and I'm sorry it disagrees with you.

My point is LITERALLY the opposite of your ridiculous argument: Avatar VERY CLOSEY mimics other films, not very generally. By manufacturing a argument and dismissing the evidence, you're not showing confirmation bias. That would require that you provide selectively-chosen evidence; you're just running with ignorance, willful or otherwise.

It's not a good look.



thismeintiel on 25 March 2018

Weekend estimates are in. TLJ did $107K. This is 76.1% lower than RO's $447K for the same weekend. For the past 10 days, TLJ has underperformed RO by 66.7%. From now until it left theatres, RO made $862.8K. If the 66.7% holds, than TLJ will make just $287.3K. This would bring the final DBO total to $620.3M. If the FBO precentage of 53.5% holds, final WW will be $1.334B.

Just a few points that help illustrate how poor its legs have been (all numbers pertain to DBO):

- By the end of Week 3, Day 21, TLJ had been outperforming RO, outside of opening weekend, by 9.6%. That performance has fallen to 6.3% in the following weeks.
- By the end of Week 3, TLJ had dropped 28.7% (-$221.4M) below TFA. It currently is 33.6% (-$313.7M) below TFA and is looking to end up ~33.8% (-$316.4M) down.
- By the end of Week 3, TLJ was $21.7M ahead of Jurassic World. It is currently $29.9M behind it and is looking to end up ~$32M behind it.
- By the end of Week 3, TLJ was $72.3M ahead of Avengers:AOU. It is currently $2.68M ahead of it and is looking to end up ~$3.06M behind it.
- TLJ has lost 96.5% of its screenings by Weekend 15. At this point in time, TFA had lost 86.6% and RO had lost 93.6% (it actually gained some theaters on this week.) JW had lost 82.4% and Avengers had lost 94.9%.
- On Day 69, TLJ already had a take below $60K ($58K). It wasn't until Day 74 that RO dropped below $60K. Day 109 for TFA. Day 102 for JW. And after Day 84 (info for Day 85-119 is missing) for Avengers.



 

thismeintiel on 25 March 2018

As I pointed out in my BP thread, it is on track to hit $1.347B WW. This means it will actually outdo TLJ not just at the DBO, which it already has by $10.9M, but WW, as well.



 

Insidb on 25 March 2018
thismeintiel said:
As I pointed out in my BP thread, it is on track to hit $1.347B WW. This means it will actually outdo TLJ not just at the DBO, which it already has by $10.9M, but WW, as well.

Fire. Rian. Johnson.



Mr.GameCrazy on 25 March 2018
Insidb said:
thismeintiel said:
As I pointed out in my BP thread, it is on track to hit $1.347B WW. This means it will actually outdo TLJ not just at the DBO, which it already has by $10.9M, but WW, as well.

Fire. Rian. Johnson.

I honestly don't think he should be fired. I think it would be better if he had a co-writer like Lawrence Kasdan to help him create his trilogy and to make sure he doesn't end up having problems with his writing that could end up dividing the audience over them like The Last Jedi.

Last edited by Mr.GameCrazy - on 25 March 2018