So it's wrong now to hope that your predictions happen? Some people...

The conclusion you guys come to seems the most likely. Switch is already at $299, which I think will hurt its legs in the long run as it will have less room to drop and therefore sustain momentum, and also the PS5 and Xbox 8K X - 3 are likely going to come out in 2 or 3 years which could also impact its trajectory a slight bit, but as a happy ps4 and Switch owner, I don't see why Nintendo doing well is a bad thing in any way. The two companies seem to cater to slightly different audiences (Ninty has more pull with family gamers, Sony with gamers in my age range) and one doing well doesn't influence the other too much (except in Japan, where there clearly is only still room for portables to perform exceptionally well). I typically prefer Sony's games, but there's plenty of room for Nintendo as an equal. Hell, MS can join too, if they ever get their exclusives situation sorted out. 

Exactly, Nintendo will actually managed Switch similar to 3DS with more different type of revisions and iterations and long life. That will be huge advantage over Wii.

Well you need to consider that Switch will definitely have couple different types and revisions of hardware with difrent price points, smaller and cheaper Switch Mini is almost certain, maybe even Switch just for home play. Nintendo will managed Switch in that way similar to 3DS.

I'm just happy both consoles are doing great and the gaming market is growing again. We now have two very different sales juggernauts with very different games and philosophies behind them. All these arguments with people jumping at each other over which console sells best are totally useless: The PS4 is currently outselling the Switch and the Switch will soon overtake PS4 launches aligned with the holidays coming up - both statements are true.

As for the future? We simply can't tell. Will the PS4 have a 7 year life cycle and the Switch be replaced after 5 years? Will the macro-economics in the western world and Japan improve further over the next few years? Things like that will have a big effect on console lifetime sales and are way more important than arguing over semantics or saying "But the Switch didn't have a holiday yet!" "But the PS4 was supply constrained!" "But the PS4 was only $199 and the Switch didn't have promotions", etc.

It had a great year for 1st party. If Nintendo can launch a Zelda, Mario, cart, Splatoon, every year then they will compete with ps4.
Realistically, no way they drop 1st party bombs like they did in 2017 every year. 3rd party most likely won’t sustain them during the 1st party lulls.
Nintendo did a great job with Switch launch year, thy had the 1st party software lined up with its launch. Let’s see how the Switch operates in between 1st party launches.

2018 will be interesting. The PS4 will have one a hell of a year with both first and third party games. Hope the Switch can hold its own against it.

Again you making things up, i just gave you proof that Sony themselves said it sold 8.5 million from August to the end of December in 2014.

Official shipment data is also 6.4 million from Oct-Dec that year.

Sony did not sell 8 million or even close to it that holiday.

Number of days to sell through 10 million units-

PlayStation 4: 268 Days
Nintendo Switch: 275 Days
Sega Dreamcast: 6,955 days and counting https://t.co/yukjqimvxG

— Daniel Ahmad (@ZhugeEX) December 12, 2017

Nah, the test is how it fares on its first 12 months against PS4. This way both will have faced the same months (holidays) nas I bet Switch will come on top. 

Doesn't work exactly like that due to launching in march. Launching in the holidays is like having your birthday at christmas, you'll never get as many presents as you would if they were seperate days. A launch boost and a separate holiday boost is bigger then just a single holiday launch. meaning comparing PS4's Nov13-Oct14 and Switch's March17-Feb18 isn't fine either.

We'll know as soon as one starts dropping behind by a large amount. If Switch consistently falls behind in 2018 to the point that the holidays looping round won't be enough to recover the gap. Then we'll know.