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Forums - Gaming Discussion - "The Nintendo Switch Is Selling Exactly As Fast As Sony's PS4" - Forbes

 

Do you agree with the article?

Yes, Switch will KILL the PS4! 18 12.95%
 
No, PS4 will remain champion! 74 53.24%
 
Hard to tell right now, time will only tell. 47 33.81%
 
Total:139
Miyamotoo on 20 December 2017
DonFerrari said:
Miyamotoo said:

You specifically wrote "3 years ago", I started posting here in February 2014. only few months after PS4 launch, but I was reading threads few months before that. In any case, if PS3 sold around 85m and PS4 from start was selling much better than PS3 and actually had of one best start and first year ever, its logical that 100m PS4 will sell at least around 100m.

I agree it was logical, but still there were a lot of criticism for people expecting over 100m.

Well you even now have some people that saying that Switch will fail.



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DonFerrari on 20 December 2017
Miyamotoo said:
DonFerrari said:

I agree it was logical, but still there were a lot of criticism for people expecting over 100m.

Well you even now have some people that saying that Switch will fail.

It isn't impossible for Switch to fail yet. But from all we have so far, it is more likely for Switch to go over 80M than below 50M, and even 50M being lower than WiiU+3DS it isn't a fail, Nintendo can still make plenty sales on this size of userbase.

But I agree it's crazyness to predict fail for Switch at this moment.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

peachbuggy on 20 December 2017
quickrick said:
peachbuggy said:

Again, pointless only in your eyes. Whilst there may be a few anomalies on the way ,launch aligned is the ONLY way to compare consoles, especially in retrospect, hence why they are used so frequently. Now i know you don't use logic to any degree in here but perhaps we could do a graph especially cherrypicked for you on here, 1 that would of course meet with your agenda, one which only you would see any fairness or logic in. Provided it "proved" your nonexistent point though and of course fitted your criteria.

what ever you say. look i already owned you once, you compare all you want but next year the gap will widen when the comparisons start being fair, ps4 will widen the gap, i stated good reasons why the switch is close, and when we look at 2018 for switch, vs say 2015 ps4, the gap will be in favor of ps4 in a huge way.

Ahhh, you are making a prediction? How cute! Well at least we won't have to wait too long for you to end up with egg on your face, spectacularly.  So,  now you want to compare year 2 of Switch with year 3 of PS4? More cherrypicking i presume. Incidentally, Japan is a good indicator of trends. Have you seen the latest numbers from MC? Another 175k+  in the bank.



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

Fuzzybearstead on 20 December 2017

Hate the poll, surely it's great to have two big selling consoles, why does one need to die?



Gamer147 on 20 December 2017

All 3 systems are flourishing and will continue to do well.



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DonFerrari on 20 December 2017
SpokenTruth said:
DonFerrari said:

Will take time for Switch to be 100M, but next year we will have a better view of how likely is it to happen.

Sure 130 and 155M isn't the same. But 3 years ago even 100M was hardly accepted as a LT to PS4.

He does make an interesting point.

PS4 sold a tremendously respectful ~70 million in 4 years.  Can it really sell ~80 million more in the next 3 years before PS5 launches?  That's a rate of almost 27 million per year. This is PS4's best year and it will be hard to even hit 20 million.

PS2 enjoyed a massive amount of expanded territory growth after PS3 launched.  I don't see PS4 getting that same kind of territory growth after PS5 releases. PS3 fell off sharply after PS4 released and now PS4 is already available in China and India. It won't have that untapped market potential that drove PS2 to 150 million. 

120 million is the zone. That's an average of 13.3 million over the next 3 years before PS5. It may push to 130 million but that will be tough.


Of course, this is all based on common console generation cycles.  They could release a PS4 Super Pro in 2019 for all we know.

Well PS4 won't stop selling after PS5 releases, but yes, by current situation I expect PS4 to reach 120Mm at most 130M. PS3 died quicker after PS4 released because its gen was very long and it never got to the 100-150 pricepoint really. PS4 may achieve that. PS1 and PS2 both sold very large amounts after successor release.

But I agree with you that Sony launching on others territories later in the lifetime than they do now will probably make the tail smaller as well.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

peachbuggy on 20 December 2017
DonFerrari said:
SpokenTruth said:

He does make an interesting point.

PS4 sold a tremendously respectful ~70 million in 4 years.  Can it really sell ~80 million more in the next 3 years before PS5 launches?  That's a rate of almost 27 million per year. This is PS4's best year and it will be hard to even hit 20 million.

PS2 enjoyed a massive amount of expanded territory growth after PS3 launched.  I don't see PS4 getting that same kind of territory growth after PS5 releases. PS3 fell off sharply after PS4 released and now PS4 is already available in China and India. It won't have that untapped market potential that drove PS2 to 150 million. 

120 million is the zone. That's an average of 13.3 million over the next 3 years before PS5. It may push to 130 million but that will be tough.


Of course, this is all based on common console generation cycles.  They could release a PS4 Super Pro in 2019 for all we know.

Well PS4 won't stop selling after PS5 releases, but yes, by current situation I expect PS4 to reach 120Mm at most 130M. PS3 died quicker after PS4 released because its gen was very long and it never got to the 100-150 pricepoint really. PS4 may achieve that. PS1 and PS2 both sold very large amounts after successor release.

But I agree with you that Sony launching on others territories later in the lifetime than they do now will probably make the tail smaller as well.

Well i did say PS2 was the ceiling. I was pretty certain shortly after launch that 100m was certain. I think we can all agree it's now pretty much a lock. It seems to be trending above the PS2 atm and i'm sure it will continue to sell pretty well after the PS5 is launched. Although i wasn't aware PS2 entered into untapped markets after PS5 release. Markets which are now not untapped. So maybe reaching PS2 numbers may be unattainable but i would guess 130m+  is entirely possible. Especially after these surprising sales at the back end of this year!



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

DonFerrari on 20 December 2017
peachbuggy said:
DonFerrari said:

Well PS4 won't stop selling after PS5 releases, but yes, by current situation I expect PS4 to reach 120Mm at most 130M. PS3 died quicker after PS4 released because its gen was very long and it never got to the 100-150 pricepoint really. PS4 may achieve that. PS1 and PS2 both sold very large amounts after successor release.

But I agree with you that Sony launching on others territories later in the lifetime than they do now will probably make the tail smaller as well.

Well i did say PS2 was the ceiling. I was pretty certain shortly after launch that 100m was certain. I think we can all agree it's now pretty much a lock. It seems to be trending above the PS2 atm and i'm sure it will continue to sell pretty well after the PS5 is launched. Although i wasn't aware PS2 entered into untapped markets after PS5 release. Markets which are now not untapped. So maybe reaching PS2 numbers may be unattainable but i would guess 130m+  is entirely possible. Especially after these surprising sales at the back end of this year!

130 imho is possible but unlikely.

10-15y ago the landscape was very different so to go for developing country they wait for the price to be rock bottom to have enough market.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

GOWTLOZ on 20 December 2017
SpokenTruth said:
DonFerrari said:

Will take time for Switch to be 100M, but next year we will have a better view of how likely is it to happen.

Sure 130 and 155M isn't the same. But 3 years ago even 100M was hardly accepted as a LT to PS4.

He does make an interesting point.

PS4 sold a tremendously respectful ~70 million in 4 years.  Can it really sell ~80 million more in the next 3 years before PS5 launches?  That's a rate of almost 27 million per year. This is PS4's best year and it will be hard to even hit 20 million.

PS2 enjoyed a massive amount of expanded territory growth after PS3 launched.  I don't see PS4 getting that same kind of territory growth after PS5 releases. PS3 fell off sharply after PS4 released and now PS4 is already available in China and India. It won't have that untapped market potential that drove PS2 to 150 million. 

120 million is the zone. That's an average of 13.3 million over the next 3 years before PS5. It may push to 130 million but that will be tough.


Of course, this is all based on common console generation cycles.  They could release a PS4 Super Pro in 2019 for all we know.

PS4 costs $400 for the slim system and $600 for Pro in India. There is a huge untapped sales potential in India, as lots of people are waiting for it to go down in price.

There is also the fact that Sony could make PS Plus non mandatory later in the PS4's lifecycle and that would boost sales a lot. Many of my PC gamer friends aren't buying a PS4 for that reason.

There is also the fact that PS4 Pro has made PS4 relevant to 4K TV owners, and as the adoption rate for 4K TV's increase so will PS4 Pro sales even to existing customers. 

There is also PSVR which has made gamers who are looking for new experiences interested in the PS4 Pro. Its not stated often on forums but its making lots of ripples in the market and many customers see PS4 as the best place for quality VR gaming at an affordable price.



Technarchy on 21 December 2017
V-r0cK said:
So it means that the PS4 will continually stay 50-60M ahead of the NS?

That's going to greatly depend on how perception of the Switch continues to evolve, and how much growth slows for PS4 over the next 2 years.

The Switch taps into the handheld and home console market, and this will impact Sony on some level, especially in Japan.