By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Gaming Discussion - "The Nintendo Switch Is Selling Exactly As Fast As Sony's PS4" - Forbes

 

Do you agree with the article?

Yes, Switch will KILL the PS4! 18 12.95%
 
No, PS4 will remain champion! 74 53.24%
 
Hard to tell right now, time will only tell. 47 33.81%
 
Total:139
NPCmates said:
HoangNhatAnh said:

Exactly, GBA/DS/3DS all failed to sell 40 million while PSP/Vita sold gangbuster. Wish DS/3DS can reach a fraction of PSP/Vita sales

Clearly you are being sarcastic but it also shows you don't research this stuff much, psp did around 80mil while competing with the DS so yes it did well but Vita not very well so your statement is kinda hard to understand haha either way no one said they didn't do well?? not sure what you on about to be honest.

Yeah 80 or 100 million doesn't change the fact Nintendo is king in handheld. Thank you for confirm psp number. And you know DS is 154 million so none can stop Nintendo in handheld unless you want to mention smart phone?



Around the Network
Alby_da_Wolf said:
DonFerrari said:

Don't say that loud, I learned in VGC that Nintendo didn't kill Wii early, that the sales had declined too much AND THEN Nintendo started to shift dev time to WiiU.

 A winning choice! I can still see stellar WiiU sales along the y-axis of the complex plane!   

NPCmates said:

Clearly you are being sarcastic but it also shows you don't research this stuff much, psp did around 80mil while competing with the DS so yes it did well but Vita not very well so your statement is kinda hard to understand haha either way no one said they didn't do well?? not sure what you on about to be honest.

The simplest thing we get from PSP nice sales competing with the giant DS and PSV failing against the greatly weaker selling 3DS is that making a prediction in the portable market is anything but linear and easy. I see big analysis and prediction fails both in the Ninty fans and Ninty haters fields. The biggest fails I saw up until now, anyhow, aren't in subjective analyses and predictions, in those cases most of the times you can simply say a certain prediction is very unlikely, but in doing even very simplified and quick maths based on current available data (for example, with an average 100k weekly lead, it would take almost 11 years to fill a 57M gap).

No one ever accused Nintendo of making good choices on WiiU, right?

mZuzek said:
tbone51 said:

Im irrelevant confirmed

I guess you don't quite need an avatar to be relevant, but it makes it a lot easier. I can't even recall a prominent user without an avatar other than you and Soundwave.

Also, about the whole debacle earlier, I'm sorry if I offended anyone. I was only having fun with the first comment about avatars, so maybe I shouldn't have explained the whole mental process when asked about it, because I didn't actually mean it. Maybe I'm really a prick then, but whatever.

@PillerTriller lol, good one. I see the quality of your posts haven't improved with your new avatar.

Seriously though, this kind of stuff isn't an opinion. An opinion is saying you really like a certain game or think a certain movie is trash or whatever, not "I think this is going to sell under 50m". That's a prediction, not an opinion, and as I've already stated, when it comes to the Switch it's a wrong one. I'm sorry to break it down to you but the Switch is seriously, absolutely not going to sell below 50m unless some crazy scenario happens like Nintendo HQ being struck by a meteor or something. It's not exactly rocket science, it's called analysis (a process in which you look at previous trends to predict the future, it's very much a natural human quality) and right now if you analyse sales data for pretty much any previous console it is beyond obvious that the Switch will sell at the very least 60m. No console just starts off with 10m in 9 months (and no holiday season yet) and then suddenly drops down to 7m yearly sales or something, it's simply dumb to think something like that can happen.

If you're offended because I'm calling you dumb, I'm sorry but that's what you're bringing into yourself. Either dumb, or blinded by hate, or both - it's the only conclusion one can come to, really. But all human beings have the potential to improve, so I'm going to believe in you and hope that one day you won't be as toxic.

The same predictions based on historic data that put Wii as a flop and WiiU as a success?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

mZuzek said:
DonFerrari said:

The same predictions based on historic data that put Wii as a flop and WiiU as a success?

No, because this sort of prediction doesn't have enough concrete data to back it up. When a product has already been released, however, it's quite a lot easier to see how it's going to sell in the long run by analysing sales curves.

Also, pardon me for saying analysis is a human quality. A lot of animals can do it too.

During the first 6 months of both consoles mentioned there was no level of certainty that one would go 100M and the other 15M.

Current Switch sales data is insufficient to say it won't sell less than 50M, it is quite improbable, but not impossible yet.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

HoangNhatAnh said:
NPCmates said:

Clearly you are being sarcastic but it also shows you don't research this stuff much, psp did around 80mil while competing with the DS so yes it did well but Vita not very well so your statement is kinda hard to understand haha either way no one said they didn't do well?? not sure what you on about to be honest.

Yeah 80 or 100 million doesn't change the fact Nintendo is king in handheld. Thank you for confirm psp number. And you know DS is 154 million so none can stop Nintendo in handheld unless you want to mention smart phone?

Just commented on another guys saying smart phones really fucked the handheld console market also if you notice DS did 150mil but then 3DS did around 70mil and DS hit big with nostalgia, price point not to mention brain age and nintendogs it just seems like Nintendo fans are dipping or getting older and moving on and unless they hit with a gimmick casual crowd leave and Hardcore just go to another console or PC.



Damn....... this thread.

I am almost scared to imagine how this forum was when the Wii was the market leader.



Around the Network
SpokenTruth said:
DonFerrari said:

They don't need, still they release TLOU and GT6 at the very end of the PS3 life and start of PS4. That isn't what Nintendo usually do with their major IPs.

Wii major ips got dropped before the yearly sales were even below what would probably be the peaks of GC. And considering games would have between 2-3 years of dev time, if they aren't releasing games after the 4th year of the console, then they shifted the dev to the next console while still on the middle of the current gen.

N64 Year 4 (1999):
Super Smash Brothers
Pokemon Snap
Mario Golf
Jet Force Gemini
Donkey Kong 64

N64 year 5 (2000):
Excitebike 64
Perfect Dark
Kirby 64
Mario Tennis
Pokemon Puzzle League
Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask
Hey You Pikachu
Banjo-Tooie

N64 year 6 (2001 - year the GC launched):
Paper Mario
Conker's Bad Fur Day
Pokemon Stadium 2
Dr Mario 64
Mario Party 3

GC year 4 (2004):
Pokemon Colosseum
WarioWare Inc
Custom Robo
LoZ: Four Swords
Pokemon Box: Ruby and Sapphire
Pikmin 2
Donkey Konga
Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door
Mario Power Tennis
Metroid Prime 2
Mario Party 6

GC year 5 (2005):
Star Fox: Assault
Donkey Kong Jungle Beat
Donkey Konga 2
Geist
Mario Superstar Baseball
Battalion Wars
Pokemon XD: Gale of Darkness
Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance
Mario Party 7
Super Mario Strikers

GC year 6 (2006 - year the Wii launched):
Chibi-Robo
Odama
LoZ: Twilight Princess

Wii year 4 (2009):
ExciteBots: Trick Racing
Punch-Out!!
Wii Sports Resort
Metroid Prime Trilogy
Wii Fit Plus
ExciteBike: World Rally
New Super Mario Bros Wii
Pokemon Rumble

Wii year 5 (2010):
Super Mario Galaxy 2
Sin & Punishment: Star Successor
Metroid: Other M
Wii Party
Kirby's Epic Yarn
PokePark Wii
Donkey Kong Country Returns
Super Mario All-Stars: 25th Anniversary Edition

Wii year 6 (2011):
Mario Sports Mix
Wii Play: Motion
Kirby's Return to Dream Land
LoZ: Skyward Sword
Fortune Street

Wii year 6 (2012 - year the Wii U launched):
Rhythm Heaven Fever
PokePark 2
Mario Party 9
Xenoblade Chronicles
Project Zero 2
The Last Story
Kirby's Dream Collection

Does not include Virtual Console or New Play Control releases.

But please, tell me again how they don't support their console after the 4th year.

I liked that you included every single game even smaller ones and that you consider 2009 as year 4 of Wii using the couple months of 2006 as full year, meaning your whole table is likely having one year added. But thanks for the list and for showing the Heaviest Hitters were on the first half of the consoles life and not the second half.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Intrinsic said:
Damn....... this thread.

I am almost scared to imagine how this forum was when the Wii was the market leader.

Yeh..the threads and some of the users in those times were outright ridiculous .imagine the npd thread the month mario kart wii n gta4 released with wii outselling both ps3 n 360



DonFerrari said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:

 A winning choice! I can still see stellar WiiU sales along the y-axis of the complex plane!   

The simplest thing we get from PSP nice sales competing with the giant DS and PSV failing against the greatly weaker selling 3DS is that making a prediction in the portable market is anything but linear and easy. I see big analysis and prediction fails both in the Ninty fans and Ninty haters fields. The biggest fails I saw up until now, anyhow, aren't in subjective analyses and predictions, in those cases most of the times you can simply say a certain prediction is very unlikely, but in doing even very simplified and quick maths based on current available data (for example, with an average 100k weekly lead, it would take almost 11 years to fill a 57M gap).

No one ever accused Nintendo of making good choices on WiiU, right?

 

I remember that once I wrote that maybe Ninty would have better made an entry-level WiiU version with a 5" display tablet controller, making it easier to handle and a lot cheaper to build (back then 5" displays already were dirt cheap), and at least one person answered me that the tablet was perfect as it was.    



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


Alby_da_Wolf said:

DonFerrari said: 

No one ever accused Nintendo of making good choices on WiiU, right?

I remember that once I wrote that maybe Ninty would have better made an entry-level WiiU version with a 5" display tablet controller, making it easier to handle and a lot cheaper to build (back then 5" displays already were dirt cheap), and at least one person answered me that the tablet was perfect as it was.    

Sorry then, I was wrong. Seem like someone approved all Nintendo decisions =p

SpokenTruth said:
DonFerrari said:

I liked that you included every single game even smaller ones and that you consider 2009 as year 4 of Wii using the couple months of 2006 as full year, meaning your whole table is likely having one year added. But thanks for the list and for showing the Heaviest Hitters were on the first half of the consoles life and not the second half.

Guess you missed years 5 and 6 on those lists too.  And EVERY platform holder puts more of their biggest titles in the first 3 years compared to the last 3. ALL of them.

But that's beyond what you said. 
You said Nintendo drops support in 4th year.  I just proved they do not. 
You said Sony puts big titles like GT6 and TLOU at the end.  I just proved to you that Nintendo also puts big titles at the end.

This is a narrative that needs to stop because it's false.  I told you previously that demand drops earlier for N consoles than Sony which is prolonged by long term 3rd party support. 

No man, I said Nintendo put more games on the first half (Sony does in the second case you haven't noticed). But I'll conced that MS is the one that really drops support very early.

What I also said was that Nintendo left Wii before it was really dropping and moved to WiiU and similar on the others, that is seem on the biggest hitters of Nintendo showing on release, like Zelda and Mario for Switch, Mario 64 on N64 and several others if you go look.

But I'll conced I wasn't aware Ninty had released so many games on the second half of the console cycle. I saw the other years, but I was pointing that all of they needed to exclude at least 1 year on the count



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

pokoko said:
mZuzek said:

How the hell does the launch being aligned have anything to do with anything, really? The Switch launched in March of all things, so it shouldn't really make much of a difference, if anything it gives the PS4 the advantage since it had a holiday season much closer to launch.

I don't want to get involved in this argument but I would like to point out that the quarter a console launches in is basically irrelevant when demand clearly exceeds supply.  For example, the Switch would not have sold more if it launched in November and the PS4 had shortages into the next year despite a staggered release.  There is little value in that differentiation unless you're talking about software sales.  Overall (and I said this before the Switch launch) I think it's better to release in the early part of the year if you know that you're going to have production issues because you're not going into the Holidays with nothing to sell.  

Really, "launch" has always been a terrible comparison for consoles.  It's not until supply exceeds demand consistently that we can really see what's going on.  

Mostly true

However, since the Holiday season is the biggest selling season anyway, console manufacturers generally keep a higher stock at hand when launching during this season. I'm sure Nintendo would have had 2.5-3.5M planned for a launch during early December compared to the 2M for the March launch window. So does have an effect, but not directly on the sales, but rather more on the planning and preparation of a launch.