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Forums - Sales Discussion - My prediction: PS4 will outsell Switch lifetime

 

Who will win?

PS4 will dominate (more than 30M difference) 53 40.46%
 
PS4 34 25.95%
 
both end up similar (less... 20 15.27%
 
Switch 11 8.40%
 
Switch will dominate (mor... 6 4.58%
 
XBox One 7 5.34%
 
Total:131
ThisGuyFooks on 12 December 2017
thismeintiel said:
Lol, it's always hilarious to see people try and use the DVD excuse over and over.  The fact is, as I proved in a thread of mine, the DVD had little to absolutely nothing to do with the success of the PS2.  DVD players were available for much cheaper than the $299 the PS2 launched for in 2000.  If I remember correctly from that thread, you could get one for $99-$149 that year, and the following year you could get one for $49-$69. 

The reality was that the PS2 helped DVD sales, not the other way around.  DVD sales went up AFTER the PS2 launched in pretty much every region.  They weren't doing great and then the PS2 launched and people were like, "Hey, these DVDs are great, let's get a PS2 that can play them and game."  It was gamers buying the PS2 saying, "Hey, the PS2 can also play DVDs, I guess we should pick up a couple to test them out."

Just like the PS3 helped the Blu-Ray sales.

We should remember that there was a format war between the Blu-Ray and HD-DVD, which Blu-Ray won of course.

If it wasn't for the PS3, maybe we would have a different format standard nowadays.



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exclusive_console on 12 December 2017

That is not a difficult prediction. Switch did amazing this year but I am not sure there is enough support for it to compete with PS4 WW. IMO it will do well to compete with xbox though

Last edited by exclusive_console - on 12 December 2017

 

poroporo on 12 December 2017

Voted Xbox One.



Mnementh on 12 December 2017
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Normchacho said:

What makes you think the Switch will peak late?

It is true that Nintendo home consoles usually peak early, but the question is "why".  Why do their home consoles peak early?

The answer is that the release schedule of their games is front loaded.  They release a bunch of games for say, a home console, for a couple of years and then they focus their resources on handheld games to prepare for their next handheld launch.  Back and forth their developers go making home games for 2-3 years, then handheld games for a couple of years.

The Switch is different, because all of their developers are making games for one console.  They will have a steady stream of games for the console's lifetime, so it is not unreasonable to think that the Switch will not be front loaded like Nintendo's other home consoles.  (Of course Nintendo's handheld consoles are never front loaded, because they always have lots of 3rd party games too.  Don't be surprised if the Switch has plenty of 3rd party games.)

That's actually a pretty reasonable explanation. Still much speculation, but that comes from everyone in this thread.

I actually missed the handheld-games in the reveal of the Switch. I see now they didn't wanted to cannibalize 3DS, and seeing it has still problems with supply, it was the right decision from Nintendo. Still I hope we see later games like Etrian Odyssey or Professor Layton on the Switch.



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NintendoPie on 12 December 2017
StreaK said:
I don't know, 25 and 24 million in ONE year??? They just seem waaaaay too high for me. I mean, PS4 hasn't even seen a 20+ million year yet. Sorry, I'm against it and I almost wanna bet on it! :)

So the Switch couldn't possibly sell 24+ million in a year just because you are against it, or do you have a real reason? If not, you need to set down your blinders because they are obscuring your reality. 



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quickrick on 12 December 2017
Ryng_Tolu said:
Barkley said:
Sure PS4 will win, and likely by over 30m.

Nah. both will likely be in the 100-120m range. I don't think one will have a big advantage in another one.

keep dreaming.



vivster on 13 December 2017
ThisGuyFooks said:
vivster said:
Can we really call 30m difference "dominating" when it ends like 110m to 80m?

Some people here declared the 7th Gen as a Dominant Win for the Wii, but the difference between the Wii and PS3 lifetime sales was only 14.74m (VgChartz Numbers).

If 14.74m is dominant, 30m is an ass kicking!

I vote "PS4 will dominate".

Some people are morons.



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Miyamotoo on 13 December 2017
StokedUp said:
The fact the PS4 has consistently outsold the Switch WW weekly except on several occasions this year even when the Switch is its its first year and the PS4 is its its 5th-6th Goes to show just how well the PS4 is doing this gen and that your prediction will more than likely be true.
Will the Switch be selling aswell as the PS4 is after 5-6 years!? Somehow I doubt it especially as Sony and Microsoft will both have thier new consoles in the market by then.

What you wrote dont make sense because this is peak PS4 year until now (its selling best this year in 4. years) and 1st year are very rarely peak years for any console, especially with fact that most of this year Switch had stock problems and still have them in Japan.

 

StreaK said: 
Ryng_Tolu said: 
My NSW prediction.

2017 - 14m - 14m
2018 - 25m - 39m
2019 - 24m - 53m
2020 - 20m - 72m
2021 - 16m - 88m
2022 - 14m - 102m
2023 - 7m - 109m / New Nintendo console year
2024 - 3m - 112m
2025 - 1m - 113m

The Switch will NOT sell over 20 million consoles in ANY given year. That's my prediction. :)

Well Nintendo predicted they will ship 17m Switch consoles in first 13 months, and that's with huge stock problem in most part of this year, so over 20m is definatly realistick posibilite for future years.



DonFerrari on 13 December 2017
thismeintiel said:
DonFerrari said:

Why use the misconcept of the DVD?

Was the DVD function that made it sell that much even after X360 released? Was the DVD functionality that made it sell more SW than any other system?

PS2 HW was great for the pricepoint and time of release. It was released for small loss as usual, and GC+XB were only stronger because they launched later and could use more advanced tech.

PS2 had Dreamcast, GC and Xbox to compete against, but even so it didn't even considered them competition when it smoked they out.

If you want to use DVD to justify the sales why not use netflix and BD for PS4?

Lol, it's always hilarious to see people try and use the DVD excuse over and over.  The fact is, as I proved in a thread of mine, the DVD had little to absolutely nothing to do with the success of the PS2.  DVD players were available for much cheaper than the $299 the PS2 launched for in 2000.  If I remember correctly from that thread, you could get one for $99-$149 that year, and the following year you could get one for $49-$69. 

The reality was that the PS2 helped DVD sales, not the other way around.  DVD sales went up AFTER the PS2 launched in pretty much every region.  They weren't doing great and then the PS2 launched and people were like, "Hey, these DVDs are great, let's get a PS2 that can play them and game."  It was gamers buying the PS2 saying, "Hey, the PS2 can also play DVDs, I guess we should pick up a couple to test them out."

Sure PS2 having DVD may have had some impact for people that wanted a console and had a DVD as bonus or for fathers that could gift their children with a console and avoid buying a DVD for himself... but considering the total sales of DVD players WW, the sale of the games and etc it makes 0 sense to attribute the sales of PS2 to it...

But in VGC is always like this... when Sony have success it is either because they were lucky, there were outside advantages or the adversaries made blunders, Sony can never have any merit on their success, just on their shortcomings... because PS3 selling almost 90M is a flop while other consoles reaching 50M are fantastic.

ThisGuyFooks said:
thismeintiel said:
Lol, it's always hilarious to see people try and use the DVD excuse over and over.  The fact is, as I proved in a thread of mine, the DVD had little to absolutely nothing to do with the success of the PS2.  DVD players were available for much cheaper than the $299 the PS2 launched for in 2000.  If I remember correctly from that thread, you could get one for $99-$149 that year, and the following year you could get one for $49-$69. 

The reality was that the PS2 helped DVD sales, not the other way around.  DVD sales went up AFTER the PS2 launched in pretty much every region.  They weren't doing great and then the PS2 launched and people were like, "Hey, these DVDs are great, let's get a PS2 that can play them and game."  It was gamers buying the PS2 saying, "Hey, the PS2 can also play DVDs, I guess we should pick up a couple to test them out."

Just like the PS3 helped the Blu-Ray sales.

We should remember that there was a format war between the Blu-Ray and HD-DVD, which Blu-Ray won of course.

If it wasn't for the PS3, maybe we would have a different format standard nowadays.

Yep, they use DVD to say PS2 sold well, but then use BD high price to make PS3 fail... but certainly PS3 could have had a different sales curve if they were able to launch for 399 without BD and Cell... still I'm happy with what my PS3 was and the sales were good.

NintendoPie said:
StreaK said:
I don't know, 25 and 24 million in ONE year??? They just seem waaaaay too high for me. I mean, PS4 hasn't even seen a 20+ million year yet. Sorry, I'm against it and I almost wanna bet on it! :)

So the Switch couldn't possibly sell 24+ million in a year just because you are against it, or do you have a real reason? If not, you need to set down your blinders because they are obscuring your reality. 

And Switch will hit over 24+M because you want?

Miyamotoo said:
StokedUp said:
The fact the PS4 has consistently outsold the Switch WW weekly except on several occasions this year even when the Switch is its its first year and the PS4 is its its 5th-6th Goes to show just how well the PS4 is doing this gen and that your prediction will more than likely be true.
Will the Switch be selling aswell as the PS4 is after 5-6 years!? Somehow I doubt it especially as Sony and Microsoft will both have thier new consoles in the market by then.

What you wrote dont make sense because this is peak PS4 year until now (its selling best this year in 4. years) and 1st year are very rarely peak years for any console, especially with fact that most of this year Switch had stock problems and still have them in Japan.

 

StreaK said: 

The Switch will NOT sell over 20 million consoles in ANY given year. That's my prediction. :)

Well Nintendo predicted they will ship 17m Switch consoles in first 13 months, and that's with huge stock problem in most part of this year, so over 20m is definatly realistick posibilite for future years.

So no more 30M shipped in 2018?



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Miyamotoo on 13 December 2017
DonFerrari said:

Miyamotoo said:

What you wrote dont make sense because this is peak PS4 year until now (its selling best this year in 4. years) and 1st year are very rarely peak years for any console, especially with fact that most of this year Switch had stock problems and still have them in Japan.

 

Well Nintendo predicted they will ship 17m Switch consoles in first 13 months, and that's with huge stock problem in most part of this year, so over 20m is definatly realistick posibilite for future years.

So no more 30M shipped in 2018?

That's also possibility but definatly less likely than around 20m.