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Forums - Sales Discussion - My prediction: PS4 will outsell Switch lifetime

 

Who will win?

PS4 will dominate (more than 30M difference) 53 40.46%
 
PS4 34 25.95%
 
both end up similar (less... 20 15.27%
 
Switch 11 8.40%
 
Switch will dominate (mor... 6 4.58%
 
XBox One 7 5.34%
 
Total:131

140 M ps4
130 M switch.



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gentii said:
Barkley said:

 

Two people in one thread predicting over 155m for the switch? :|

I'm not sure how you can think the Switch will sell less in 2018 than 2017 but somehow still sell over 155m lifetime xD. What does your rough year-by-year look like in your head?

Something like this?

2017 - 13m (13m)
2018 - 12m (25m)
2019 - 30m (55m)
2020 - 35m (90m)
2021 - 30m (120m)
2022 - 20m (140m)
2023 - 16m (156m)

It just doesn't look right, my current predictions for both are 70-80m for Switch and 110-120m for PS4.

Kep in mind thats Switch is something thats one family will have 4 time ? You need better calculator ?? Yes Switch will beat DS easy

You mean like every handheld? 



Bet with Adamblaziken:

I bet that on launch the Nintendo Switch will have no built in in-game voice chat. He bets that it will. The winner gets six months of avatar control over the other user.

It really depends on how long both sell for.
In example one, the PS4 ends at 100m after 6 (2019) years and the Switch carries on for another 7 years at 110m.
In example two, the PS4 ends up like the PS2 and sells for 10 (2023) and the Switch stops around 2021 and there is just not enough time for the Switch to catch up.

Does anyone realize that the PS3 can still be purchased new? That 4 years into the PS4... so, if you want we can necro bump this thread in 10 years and check... but that the same thing as me saying that the PS4 wins.



Mnementh said:

Well, after seeing the Switch perform for the first year (or less) I think I wager a prediction about the lifetime sales. I say, PS4 will in the end have sold more than Switch.

My reasoning: We have two threads comparing sales from launch in different ways:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=228581

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=231512

Switch and PS4 perform similar. Well PS4 is in front, but PS4 had already an christmas in this statistics. Switch will pull in front soon with with it's first holidays, then PS4 will come back with it's second. But overall momentum lokos pretty similar. So I assume this will hold in the future too.

But PS4 had a weakness in Japan around launch. Sony neglected in the beginning the japanese customers too much, and it showed. But since Sony has worked to remedy this error.Many japanese oriented games were released and recently Dragon Quest and soon Monster Hunter show more effort in this direction.

Switch has a similar weakness in europe. But while Sony remedied the problem for Japan, I think it will be pretty hard to do for Nintendo to pull something similar in europe. I might be wrong, but I don't see much what Nintendo could do. Europe has no specific exclusive that pull much of a platform (it's more about multiplats like FIFA). Exclusives that work in europe usually do that worldwide. And Nintendo had these already, these are selling the system in america and Japan. So I don't know how Nintendo could fix that.

That means, that in the long term the momentum of the PS4 will outdo that of the Switch. Not by much, but enough to be in front. I guess PS4 sells way past 100M while Switch will stop there.

But that is my opinion, what do you think?

ps4 is dominating in monthly sales. ps4 launch holiday shouldn't be counted as a real holiday it was sold out the whole holidays in europe and US, in reality ps4 first holiday offer a very light boost at best, ps4 real holday came in 2014 where they shipped like 8 million units compared to launch holiday where it shipped 4.2, i think could have sold 4.2 in any quarter where it launched just due to pent up demand.  



The_Liquid_Laser said:
My prediction is that the Switch will beat the PS4 by at least 30m (and likely much more than that). I say this believing that the PS4 lifetime will be 125m +/-20%.

In fact, this year's sales for the Switch will actually appear low once we see how it does over its lifetime. And 2018 sales will be even lower than this year's. Then in 2019 the Switch's hardware sales chart will look like a rocket taking off, and it will continue to sell impressively for several years after. The Switch will be the best selling console yet, easily outselling even the PS2.

Wow, that is bold. Currently Switch seems to go the way to 100M or so. That includes obvious increases in year two and three. But you predict more like 150M. This is the territtory of the most popular consoles of all time: PS2 and DS. I might be interesting, but I don't share at this point your confidence.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

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StokedUp said:
The fact the PS4 has consistently outsold the Switch WW weekly except on several occasions this year even when the Switch is its its first year and the PS4 is its its 5th-6th Goes to show just how well the PS4 is doing this gen and that your prediction will more than likely be true.
Will the Switch be selling aswell as the PS4 is after 5-6 years!? Somehow I doubt it especially as Sony and Microsoft will both have thier new consoles in the market by then.

Well, you have it actually wrong. Looking at the launch-time it can be seen that the PS4 sold on similar levels back then. Console-sales increase to a peak, you expect the first year to be weaker.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Ok, Who voted Xb one?



You're doing predictions wrong, you're meant to predict something unlikely
whats your next thread
PS4 will outsell Xbox One lifetime?



I'm currently going trough one of the most unlucky periods of my entire life, and with that in mind I predict PS4 will outsell the Switch



Normchacho said:

The problem with that theory is that VGC has the comparison up to week 33, but we know what the gap is at week 40 now. We know that the gap between the Switch and the 3DS shrinks from 2.1 to 1.5 million units in those 7 weeks. Then you need to account for the fact that December 2011 was the best month the 3DS ever had by a huge margin. It sold 4.76m units and I have no idea why 3DS sales spiked so sharply, but there's no evidence to suggest the Switch will have a December anywhere near that strong.

If the Switch ends 2017 with 12.5m units sold, which I think is very doable, but not a lock, then it will need to average 870K a month to match the PS4s first year. Between April and October the Switch averaged 785k a month. That's the only data we have for the Switch that's outside the launch or the holidays. It's doable, but not likely.

If the Switch has 12.5M at the end of 2017 (around week 45 or so) it is 1.5M ahead of PS4 at the same time. Also you average from April to October, while early on the Switch was supply-constrained and is even now in Japan. Even if you ignore that: second year is for basically every console much better than the first. Selling an extra 100K seems very conservative, usually consoles have more like 30-50% more in the second year.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]