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Forums - Sales Discussion - My prediction: PS4 will outsell Switch lifetime

 

Who will win?

PS4 will dominate (more than 30M difference) 53 40.46%
 
PS4 34 25.95%
 
both end up similar (less... 20 15.27%
 
Switch 11 8.40%
 
Switch will dominate (mor... 6 4.58%
 
XBox One 7 5.34%
 
Total:131

I think it can happen



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vivster said:
Can we really call 30m difference "dominating" when it ends like 110m to 80m?

Some people here declared the 7th Gen as a Dominant Win for the Wii, but the difference between the Wii and PS3 lifetime sales was only 14.74m (VgChartz Numbers).

If 14.74m is dominant, 30m is an ass kicking!

I vote "PS4 will dominate".



ThisGuyFooks said:
vivster said:
Can we really call 30m difference "dominating" when it ends like 110m to 80m?

Some people here declared the 7th Gen as a Dominant Win for the Wii, but the difference between the Wii and PS3 lifetime sales was only 14.74m (VgChartz Numbers).

If 14.74m is dominant, 30m is an ass kicking!

I vote "PS4 will dominate".

This



My prediction is that the Switch will beat the PS4 by at least 30m (and likely much more than that). I say this believing that the PS4 lifetime will be 125m +/-20%.

In fact, this year's sales for the Switch will actually appear low once we see how it does over its lifetime. And 2018 sales will be even lower than this year's. Then in 2019 the Switch's hardware sales chart will look like a rocket taking off, and it will continue to sell impressively for several years after. The Switch will be the best selling console yet, easily outselling even the PS2.



The fact the PS4 has consistently outsold the Switch WW weekly except on several occasions this year even when the Switch is its its first year and the PS4 is its its 5th-6th Goes to show just how well the PS4 is doing this gen and that your prediction will more than likely be true.
Will the Switch be selling aswell as the PS4 is after 5-6 years!? Somehow I doubt it especially as Sony and Microsoft will both have thier new consoles in the market by then.



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gentii said:
i dont know how ps4 will sell but switch will surpass Nintendo DS

 

The_Liquid_Laser said:
2018 sales will be even lower than this year's. Then in 2019 the Switch's hardware sales chart will look like a rocket taking off, and it will continue to sell impressively for several years after. The Switch will be the best selling console yet, easily outselling even the PS2.

Two people in one thread predicting over 155m for the switch? :|

I'm not sure how you can think the Switch will sell less in 2018 than 2017 but somehow still sell over 155m lifetime xD. What does your rough year-by-year look like in your head?

Something like this?

2017 - 13m (13m)
2018 - 12m (25m)
2019 - 30m (55m)
2020 - 35m (90m)
2021 - 30m (120m)
2022 - 20m (140m)
2023 - 16m (156m)

It just doesn't look right, my current predictions for both are 70-80m for Switch and 110-120m for PS4.



A not very bold thread... but sure we can be surprised in the future.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Barkley said:
gentii said:
i dont know how ps4 will sell but switch will surpass Nintendo DS

 

The_Liquid_Laser said:
2018 sales will be even lower than this year's. Then in 2019 the Switch's hardware sales chart will look like a rocket taking off, and it will continue to sell impressively for several years after. The Switch will be the best selling console yet, easily outselling even the PS2.

Two people in one thread predicting over 155m for the switch? :|

I'm not sure how you can think the Switch will sell less in 2018 than 2017 but somehow still sell over 155m lifetime xD. What does your rough year-by-year look like in your head?

Something like this?

2017 - 13m (13m)
2018 - 12m (25m)
2019 - 30m (55m)
2020 - 35m (90m)
2021 - 30m (120m)
2022 - 20m (140m)
2023 - 16m (156m)

It just doesn't look right, my current predictions for both are 70-80m for Switch and 110-120m for PS4.

Kep in mind thats Switch is something thats one family will have 4 time ? You need better calculator ?? Yes Switch will beat DS easy



gentii said:

Kep in mind thats Switch is something thats one family will have 4 time ? You need better calculator ?? Yes Switch will beat DS easy

So what do you think the Switch will sell in it's peak year?



Mnementh said:
Normchacho said:

I don't know...the Switch has 12 weeks left of it's first year. In the last 12 weeks of its first year the PS4 sold 4 million units. The Switch would need to outpace the rest of it's life so far which included it's launch and it's first November. That's going to be a big ask for 3 weeks in December and then January/February 2018...

I referenced two threads above. This is launched alike the movement so far:

As you can see Switch moves above 3DS and can also match the new momentum of the 3DS post-pricecut (the pricecut is visible). Switch also launched around the same time, will enter the holidays around the same time. As you can see with the holidays boost the 3DS pulls ahead. It seems unlikely the Switch will not do that, even if the holiday-boost isn't that big for it.

The problem with that theory is that VGC has the comparison up to week 33, but we know what the gap is at week 40 now. We know that the gap between the Switch and the 3DS shrinks from 2.1 to 1.5 million units in those 7 weeks. Then you need to account for the fact that December 2011 was the best month the 3DS ever had by a huge margin. It sold 4.76m units and I have no idea why 3DS sales spiked so sharply, but there's no evidence to suggest the Switch will have a December anywhere near that strong.

If the Switch ends 2017 with 12.5m units sold, which I think is very doable, but not a lock, then it will need to average 870K a month to match the PS4s first year. Between April and October the Switch averaged 785k a month. That's the only data we have for the Switch that's outside the launch or the holidays. It's doable, but not likely.



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I bet that on launch the Nintendo Switch will have no built in in-game voice chat. He bets that it will. The winner gets six months of avatar control over the other user.