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Forums - Sales Discussion - My prediction: PS4 will outsell Switch lifetime

 

Who will win?

PS4 will dominate (more than 30M difference) 53 40.46%
 
PS4 34 25.95%
 
both end up similar (less... 20 15.27%
 
Switch 11 8.40%
 
Switch will dominate (mor... 6 4.58%
 
XBox One 7 5.34%
 
Total:131
Barkley on 21 November 2019
Manlytears said:
Barkley said:
I said over 30m back in 2017, but now I think the PS4 will win by anywhere from 15m-20m.

I think ya prediction of 30M is kinda solid, why change it?

Imho, switch isn't going to pass 100M, it will match 90M (maybe a little more) and even if momentum is good right now, in the end sales will fall harshly, like Wii. That said, ps4 will most likely die close to 120M, so yeah, 25M-30M in favor of ps4 is a good guess.

Just look at 3DS, switch sales are not going to beat it by much, and than add that new consoles are coming and mobile gaming is evolving faster than ever! (Looking at you 5G gaming)

Because I disagree that Switch won't pass 100m, I think it's got a very good chance of doing that.



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Manlytears on 21 November 2019
RolStoppable said:
Manlytears said:

I think ya prediction of 30M is kinda solid, why change it?

Imho, switch isn't going to pass 100M, it will match 90M (maybe a little more) and even if momentum is good right now, in the end sales will fall harshly, like Wii. That said, ps4 will most likely die close to 120M, so yeah, 25M-30M in favor of ps4 is a good guess.

Just look at 3DS, switch sales are not going to beat it by much, and than add that new consoles are coming and mobile gaming is evolving faster than ever! (Looking at you 5G gaming)

I think you are the one who should look at 3DS sales.

75M sales, and most likely not crossing 80M. Based on this, and other factors, i predict that switch isn't going to pass 100M, but sure there is a good chance it ends very close to 100M, but  that is it.

Switch user base isn't that different from 3ds base, i see no reasons for 1 console to sell over 25% more than the other.



JRPGfan on 21 November 2019
Barkley said:
I said over 30m back in 2017, but now I think the PS4 will win by anywhere from 15m-20m.

The switch's success has surprised me.
It might be more reasonable to expect there to end up being around a ~20m differnce now.

I still have a hard time imagineing the Switch going over 100m though,
And expect the PS4 ends up atleast going over 120m.



Barkley on 21 November 2019
JRPGfan said:
Barkley said:
I said over 30m back in 2017, but now I think the PS4 will win by anywhere from 15m-20m.

The switch's success has surprised me.
It might be more reasonable to expect there to end up being around a ~20m differnce now.

I still have a hard time imagineing the Switch going over 100m though,
And expect the PS4 ends up atleast going over 120m.

2017 - 13.1m (13.1m)
2018 - 16.5m (29.6m)
2019 - 18.8m (48.4m)
2020 - 22m (70.4m)
2021 - 16.5m (86.9m)
2022 - 13m (99.9m)
2023+ - ~10m (110m)

This is what I roughly see happening, with a Switch successor launching March 2023. I may have underestimated 2019 and overestiamted 2020 though so it may be more flat those two years, with both getting around 20m.



Manlytears on 21 November 2019
RolStoppable said:
Manlytears said:

75M sales, and most likely not crossing 80M. Based on this, and other factors, i predict that switch isn't going to pass 100M, there is a good chance it ends very close to 100M, but  that is it.

Switch user base isn't that different from 3ds base, i see no reasons for 1 console to sell over 25% more than the other.

If Switch pulled away from the 3DS in a launch-aligned comparison by more than 20m units within the first five years, would that change your mind?

Nope, cause i don't put that much faint in early sales momentum and launch aligned comparassions, these factors can't paint the entire picture of life time sales, i mean if that were true then wii should have been able to beat ps2 and ps4, and ps4 should be able to beat ps2 and than xbox one should be able to beat xbox 360.

3DS got such slow start, damn it only pick gas after price cut, on the other hand switch started the generation on fire whit major reales and great appeal! I still keep my point, switch got a extremily fast start, but it will get a major drop in sales at some point, just like wii, and it will not be that much ahead of 3DS.



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Nautilus on 21 November 2019
Manlytears said:
RolStoppable said:

If Switch pulled away from the 3DS in a launch-aligned comparison by more than 20m units within the first five years, would that change your mind?

Nope, cause i don't put that much faint in early sales momentum and launch aligned comparassions, these factors can't paint the entire picture of life time sales, i mean if that were true then wii should have been able to beat ps2 and ps4, and ps4 should be able to beat ps2 and than xbox one should be able to beat xbox 360.

3DS got such slow start, damn it only pick gas after price cut, on the other hand switch started the generation on fire whit major reales and great appeal! I still keep my point, switch got a extremily fast start, but it will get a major drop in sales at some point, just like wii, and it will not be that much ahead of 3DS.

all indicates that the Switch will end at around 50 million units sold by March, and its very difficult that it wont sell around the same quantity it did this year in 2020, which would put the system around the 70 million mark.Even if the 9th gen consoles from Sony and MS magically ate all the Switch momnetum, I ifnd it extremely hard that the Switch "just" end up selling 80-85 million units in the end.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Manlytears on 21 November 2019
RolStoppable said:
Manlytears said:

Nope, cause i don't put that much faint in early sales momentum and launch aligned comparassions, these factors can't paint the entire picture of life time sales, i mean if that were true then wii should have been able to beat ps2 and ps4, and ps4 should be able to beat ps2 and than xbox one should be able to beat xbox 360.

3DS got such slow start, damn it only pick gas after price cut, on the other hand switch started the generation on fire whit major reales and great appeal! I still keep my point, switch got a extremily fast start, but it will get a major drop in sales at some point, just like wii, and it will not be that much ahead of 3DS.

A timespan of five years isn't early sales momentum for consoles, that's way past the halfway mark of being a manufacturer's flagship console. Five years paint a pretty good picture of where things are going, including all of your examples.

Out of interest, where do you see Switch's LTD sales at the end of 2019, 2020 and 2021? Something like 45m, 60m, 70m?

I see great sales for 2019 and 2020, ~49M 2019, ~68M 2020, than starts a harsh slowdown, ~80M 2021, ~90M 2022, ~95M 2023.

Also, 5 years? The switch is not even 3 years old! Are you speaking about the fact that 3 years of switch is going to sell better than 5 years of 3DS?

Last edited by Manlytears - on 21 November 2019

Manlytears on 21 November 2019
RolStoppable said:
Manlytears said:

75M sales, and most likely not crossing 80M. Based on this, and other factors, i predict that switch isn't going to pass 100M, there is a good chance it ends very close to 100M, but  that is it.

Switch user base isn't that different from 3ds base, i see no reasons for 1 console to sell over 25% more than the other.

If Switch pulled away from the 3DS in a launch-aligned comparison by more than 20m units within the first five years, would that change your mind?

You mean, 5 years of switch pulling ahead 5 years of 3DS by 20M? If that's is the case, than no. I still belive switch will face a major slowdown and that it will sell under 100M, but yeah, it will surpass 90M and chances for it selling extremily close to 100M are great.



Leynos on 21 November 2019

I think Switch ends with a 103 million sold. I think PS4 ends with 125 or so.



Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

The_Liquid_Laser on 21 November 2019

I still hold that Switch will become the best selling console of all time. Having said that the PS4 seems to be having better legs than I would have originally thought, because of Europe. I think PS4 is going to have significant drop offs in Japan and NA next year like in the 30-50% range. However, I think it will still go strong in Europe and have a more mild 10-30% decline. It will be interesting to see just how close PS4 can get to the PS2 lifetime total in the end.

Either way though, Switch will still sell the most. This year is not even the peak year.



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