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My prediction: PS4 will outsell Switch lifetime

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Who will win?

PS4 will dominate (more than 30M difference) 46 44.66%
 
PS4 28 27.18%
 
both end up similar (less... 9 8.74%
 
Switch 7 6.80%
 
Switch will dominate (mor... 6 5.83%
 
XBox One 7 6.80%
 
Total:103

I remember when people were claiming the WiiU would do big numbers and I was too low predicting 40m.

The NS is what the WiiU should have been. Properly bridging the gap between home and handheld console. With the handheld market continuing to see greater competition from phones I expect the NS to do roughly what the 3DS has. Which I would consider a huge success.

PS4~110m
NS~70m



 

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DonFerrari said:

Miyamotoo said:

What you wrote dont make sense because this is peak PS4 year until now (its selling best this year in 4. years) and 1st year are very rarely peak years for any console, especially with fact that most of this year Switch had stock problems and still have them in Japan.

 

Well Nintendo predicted they will ship 17m Switch consoles in first 13 months, and that's with huge stock problem in most part of this year, so over 20m is definatly realistick posibilite for future years.

So no more 30M shipped in 2018?

That's also possibility but definatly less likely than around 20m.



Of course it will, Switch wont get over 50 millions. In two years the PS5 is coming, any maybe a new xbone, and they will kill the switch hype even more. Maybe Switch already had its peak year. Why should the Switch have its peak year like the ps4, in the 4th year? Had the xbone its peak this year too? This is a funny and petty nintendo fan logic

Last edited by Pillertriller - on 13 December 2017

Pillertriller said:

Of course it will, Switch wont get over 50 millions. In two years the PS5 is coming, any maybe a new xbone, and they will kill the switch hype even more. Maybe Switch already had its peak year. Why should the Switch have its peak year like the ps4, in the 4th year? Had the xbone its peak this year too? Petty Nintendo Fans Logic

Actually you have quite petty logic, consoles very rarely have peak year in its 1st year, especially when most of that 1st year console had huge stock problems and still have them in Japan for instance.



NintendoPie said:
StreaK said:
I don't know, 25 and 24 million in ONE year??? They just seem waaaaay too high for me. I mean, PS4 hasn't even seen a 20+ million year yet. Sorry, I'm against it and I almost wanna bet on it! :)

So the Switch couldn't possibly sell 24+ million in a year just because you are against it, or do you have a real reason? If not, you need to set down your blinders because they are obscuring your reality. 

Just because you hope/love the switch to sell 24+ million doesn't mean it's realistic either, it's sold extremely well but nothing suggest it will sell that well.



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Ryng_Tolu said:
My NSW prediction.

2017 - 14m - 14m
2018 - 25m - 39m
2019 - 24m - 53m
2020 - 20m - 72m
2021 - 16m - 88m
2022 - 14m - 102m
2023 - 7m - 109m / New Nintendo console year
2024 - 3m - 112m
2025 - 1m - 113m

You could be right, but it could also be true that the Switch is simply performing par for course with other Nintendo handhelds like the 3DS and GBA, since both of them reached 10 million in their 9th month also. It could well have 20+ mill years, but the chances of it sustaining past 100 million are low based on historical data. The DS had a different demographic, as did Wii.

That said, it's not impossible either. I'd just love to know exactly the demographic who would be buying them, because it's not the same people who took the DS to 154 million. The DS was the only console my mother ever owned, and she had 4 of them.



Pillertriller said:

Of course it will, Switch wont get over 50 millions. In two years the PS5 is coming, any maybe a new xbone, and they will kill the switch hype even more. Maybe Switch already had its peak year. Why should the Switch have its peak year like the ps4, in the 4th year? Had the xbone its peak this year too? This is a funny and petty nintendo fan logic

Only Vita peaked in the first year. Logic and history says that you should assume third year without further data.



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3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter

PS4 will dominate the Switch in sales. No doubt at all!



Mnementh said:
Pillertriller said:

Of course it will, Switch wont get over 50 millions. In two years the PS5 is coming, any maybe a new xbone, and they will kill the switch hype even more. Maybe Switch already had its peak year. Why should the Switch have its peak year like the ps4, in the 4th year? Had the xbone its peak this year too? This is a funny and petty nintendo fan logic

Only Vita peaked in the first year. Logic and history says that you should assume third year without further data.

According to this site, WiiU too

Y1 : 3,643,090
Y2 : 3,524,181
Y3 : 3,403,503
Y4 : 2,655,749
Y5 : 299,287 (to September 2017)



Mnementh said:
Pillertriller said:

Of course it will, Switch wont get over 50 millions. In two years the PS5 is coming, any maybe a new xbone, and they will kill the switch hype even more. Maybe Switch already had its peak year. Why should the Switch have its peak year like the ps4, in the 4th year? Had the xbone its peak this year too? This is a funny and petty nintendo fan logic

Only Vita peaked in the first year. Logic and history says that you should assume third year without further data.

Besides WiiU as provided, Nintendo systems also have more second year peaks than others. And their consoles peak earlier than competition.

Anyway we can't really expect 30M peaks and also being a late peak with also long tail.



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