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Forums - Sales Discussion - My prediction: PS4 will outsell Switch lifetime

 

Who will win?

PS4 will dominate (more than 30M difference) 53 40.46%
 
PS4 34 25.95%
 
both end up similar (less... 20 15.27%
 
Switch 11 8.40%
 
Switch will dominate (mor... 6 4.58%
 
XBox One 7 5.34%
 
Total:131
Pillertriller on 13 December 2017

Of course it will, Switch wont get over 50 millions. In two years the PS5 is coming, any maybe a new xbone, and they will kill the switch hype even more. Maybe Switch already had its peak year. Why should the Switch have its peak year like the ps4, in the 4th year? Had the xbone its peak this year too? This is a funny and petty nintendo fan logic

Last edited by Pillertriller - on 13 December 2017

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Miyamotoo on 13 December 2017
Pillertriller said:

Of course it will, Switch wont get over 50 millions. In two years the PS5 is coming, any maybe a new xbone, and they will kill the switch hype even more. Maybe Switch already had its peak year. Why should the Switch have its peak year like the ps4, in the 4th year? Had the xbone its peak this year too? Petty Nintendo Fans Logic

Actually you have quite petty logic, consoles very rarely have peak year in its 1st year, especially when most of that 1st year console had huge stock problems and still have them in Japan for instance.



betacon on 13 December 2017
NintendoPie said:
StreaK said:
I don't know, 25 and 24 million in ONE year??? They just seem waaaaay too high for me. I mean, PS4 hasn't even seen a 20+ million year yet. Sorry, I'm against it and I almost wanna bet on it! :)

So the Switch couldn't possibly sell 24+ million in a year just because you are against it, or do you have a real reason? If not, you need to set down your blinders because they are obscuring your reality. 

Just because you hope/love the switch to sell 24+ million doesn't mean it's realistic either, it's sold extremely well but nothing suggest it will sell that well.



LethalP on 13 December 2017
Ryng_Tolu said:
My NSW prediction.

2017 - 14m - 14m
2018 - 25m - 39m
2019 - 24m - 53m
2020 - 20m - 72m
2021 - 16m - 88m
2022 - 14m - 102m
2023 - 7m - 109m / New Nintendo console year
2024 - 3m - 112m
2025 - 1m - 113m

You could be right, but it could also be true that the Switch is simply performing par for course with other Nintendo handhelds like the 3DS and GBA, since both of them reached 10 million in their 9th month also. It could well have 20+ mill years, but the chances of it sustaining past 100 million are low based on historical data. The DS had a different demographic, as did Wii.

That said, it's not impossible either. I'd just love to know exactly the demographic who would be buying them, because it's not the same people who took the DS to 154 million. The DS was the only console my mother ever owned, and she had 4 of them.



Mnementh on 13 December 2017
Pillertriller said:

Of course it will, Switch wont get over 50 millions. In two years the PS5 is coming, any maybe a new xbone, and they will kill the switch hype even more. Maybe Switch already had its peak year. Why should the Switch have its peak year like the ps4, in the 4th year? Had the xbone its peak this year too? This is a funny and petty nintendo fan logic

Only Vita peaked in the first year. Logic and history says that you should assume third year without further data.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

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PotentHerbs on 13 December 2017

PS4 will dominate the Switch in sales. No doubt at all!



Lauster on 13 December 2017
Mnementh said:
Pillertriller said:

Of course it will, Switch wont get over 50 millions. In two years the PS5 is coming, any maybe a new xbone, and they will kill the switch hype even more. Maybe Switch already had its peak year. Why should the Switch have its peak year like the ps4, in the 4th year? Had the xbone its peak this year too? This is a funny and petty nintendo fan logic

Only Vita peaked in the first year. Logic and history says that you should assume third year without further data.

According to this site, WiiU too

Y1 : 3,643,090
Y2 : 3,524,181
Y3 : 3,403,503
Y4 : 2,655,749
Y5 : 299,287 (to September 2017)



DonFerrari on 13 December 2017
Mnementh said:
Pillertriller said:

Of course it will, Switch wont get over 50 millions. In two years the PS5 is coming, any maybe a new xbone, and they will kill the switch hype even more. Maybe Switch already had its peak year. Why should the Switch have its peak year like the ps4, in the 4th year? Had the xbone its peak this year too? This is a funny and petty nintendo fan logic

Only Vita peaked in the first year. Logic and history says that you should assume third year without further data.

Besides WiiU as provided, Nintendo systems also have more second year peaks than others. And their consoles peak earlier than competition.

Anyway we can't really expect 30M peaks and also being a late peak with also long tail.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Pillertriller on 13 December 2017
Lauster said:
Mnementh said:

Only Vita peaked in the first year. Logic and history says that you should assume third year without further data.

According to this site, WiiU too

Y1 : 3,643,090
Y2 : 3,524,181
Y3 : 3,403,503
Y4 : 2,655,749
Y5 : 299,287 (to September 2017)

Ohoh Nintendo Fanatics will downplay this somehow



NintendoPie on 13 December 2017
DonFerrari said:

NintendoPie said:

So the Switch couldn't possibly sell 24+ million in a year just because you are against it, or do you have a real reason? If not, you need to set down your blinders because they are obscuring your reality. 

And Switch will hit over 24+M because you want?
betacon said:

Just because you hope/love the switch to sell 24+ million doesn't mean it's realistic either, it's sold extremely well but nothing suggest it will sell that well.

The obvious is lost on both of you. I never stated in my post that I absolutely do think the Switch will sell 24+ million in any given year, just that it's ridiculous and short-sighted of the poster I quoted to only believe it won't because it's unfathomable to him. Besides, there's more evidence to the idea that it can rather than that it can't, but that wasn't even my point.