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My prediction: PS4 will outsell Switch lifetime

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Who will win?

PS4 will dominate (more than 30M difference) 53 40.46%
 
PS4 34 25.95%
 
both end up similar (less... 20 15.27%
 
Switch 11 8.40%
 
Switch will dominate (mor... 6 4.58%
 
XBox One 7 5.34%
 
Total:131

EDIT: Well, two years later I am not so sure anymore.

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Well, after seeing the Switch perform for the first year (or less) I think I wager a prediction about the lifetime sales. I say, PS4 will in the end have sold more than Switch.

My reasoning: We have two threads comparing sales from launch in different ways:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=228581

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=231512

Switch and PS4 perform similar. Well PS4 is in front, but PS4 had already an christmas in this statistics. Switch will pull in front soon with with it's first holidays, then PS4 will come back with it's second. But overall momentum lokos pretty similar. So I assume this will hold in the future too.

But PS4 had a weakness in Japan around launch. Sony neglected in the beginning the japanese customers too much, and it showed. But since Sony has worked to remedy this error.Many japanese oriented games were released and recently Dragon Quest and soon Monster Hunter show more effort in this direction.

Switch has a similar weakness in europe. But while Sony remedied the problem for Japan, I think it will be pretty hard to do for Nintendo to pull something similar in europe. I might be wrong, but I don't see much what Nintendo could do. Europe has no specific exclusive that pull much of a platform (it's more about multiplats like FIFA). Exclusives that work in europe usually do that worldwide. And Nintendo had these already, these are selling the system in america and Japan. So I don't know how Nintendo could fix that.

That means, that in the long term the momentum of the PS4 will outdo that of the Switch. Not by much, but enough to be in front. I guess PS4 sells way past 100M while Switch will stop there.

But that is my opinion, what do you think?

Last edited by Mnementh - on 21 November 2019

3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter

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Can we really call 30m difference "dominating" when it ends like 110m to 80m?



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

Sure PS4 will win, and likely by over 30m.



Predictions (Made July 2019)

LTD: PS4 - 130m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 52m       2019 : PS4 - 15m, Switch - 18.8m, XBO - 4.8m        2020: Switch - 22m (Peak Year)

Switch lite really screwed up my Switch prediction this year! Looks like it's going to be about 19.5m-20m for the Switch in 2019, 14.3m for PS4.

Tagged. This will be fun to bump in a year or two.



"You should be banned. Youre clearly flaming the president and even his brother who you know nothing about. Dont be such a partisan hack"

i dont know how ps4 will sell but switch will surpass Nintendo DS



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Everything is possible.



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Number ONE Zelda fan in the Universe

DKCTF didn't move consoles

Prediction: No Zelda HD for Wii U, quietly moved to the succesor

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Before the switch lauched i predicted switch to sell 40-50m lifetime but now Im thinking switch could do 3ds number so probably around 70-80m. Ps4 will sell at least 120m



gentii said:
i dont know how ps4 will sell but switch will surpass Nintendo DS

Is that a typo?

I mean it wouldn't surprise me if it wasn't. Just making sure.



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

PS4 120M
Switch 85M

I suck at predictions but ahh what the hell.



vivster said:
Can we really call 30m difference "dominating" when it ends like 110m to 80m?

Well, dominating might have been a bit exxagerating.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter