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Forums - Sales Discussion - November 2017 NPD Thread! PS4 > XBO > Switch

SWORDF1SH on 11 December 2017

We need to stop trying to justify the sales because all 3 did great. Some people put unrealistic expectations on Switch sales and some people are treating 900k like it's a poor figure. To put things into perspective, the PS4 did 850k in November after launch with no discount.
We also have to consider this is the Switch's first holiday while the 850k was PS4's second holiday at rrp.
Judging by everything I've seen, there were Switch stock issues but minor stock issues. It would of certainly had an affect on sales but I'm guessing Switch probably still wouldn't hit 1M.
PS4 also had stock issues with the $199 bundle but that was almost certainly managed by Sony.



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tbone51 on 11 December 2017
Lawlight said:
zorg1000 said:

I believe they were 1.65 million

So that’s the benchmark for the Switch. Will be an interesting fight to see.

Here we go, now we kno what 10+ pages will be about next month xD



tbone51 on 11 December 2017
quickrick said:
JSG87 said:

I've seen enough of this to just say that all these people saying that Switch Interest is declining because it lost November is absolute BS. Sure Switch is my preferred platform but I'm glad all three did well.

It's totally clear to me that losing November is because of the Switch's price. Once Nintendo hit that sweet spot of sold shipped consoles to retailers, whatever that may be, they will lower the price. Next November they will most likely cut the price for BF too.

it not because it lost november, but because got destroyed being outsold 2:1.

What do you say about japan sales when its 4:1?



Intrinsic on 11 December 2017
tbone51 said:
Lawlight said:

The majority of people knew that it would do well simply because it is the 3DS’s successor while also being a cheap console. Sure it is doing better than most expected. And no matter what you say price makes a big difference. Also, the PS4 is one of the fastest selling when you consider WW sales, not just US when it’s actually not selling that fast. Ask yourself - how would the Switch sales in the US have compared to the PS4’s if the latter was released at $299?

Alot of ifs. What if switch launched at $250 instead? How about $150? How about $400? 

 

And your wrong, majority thought it wouldnt do well at all back in the beginning of the year. All you do is need to find the threads back in jan/feb

I think your attempt to disprove his argument is just reinforcing it.

All he's saying is that pricing matters. So its weird comparing sales of  something that released at $399 to something that released at $299. I don't get how that concept is so hard to accept unless you just don't wanna accept it. 

Then the bolded part in your post... just goes to prove what I am saying, cause it means you actually get it.

If the PS4/NS sold 800k at $400/$300 respectively, then common sense dictates that if they were $300/$200 respectively at that same time they would have sold more. Which means that if the argument is that both are performing the exact same or similar, then you cannot ignore the one major differentiating factor which is the price.

And this goes in all directions. At $299 in it first holiday PS4 would have sold more than it did. In its first holiday at $199 PS4 would be expected to sell more than the NS at $299. When the NS drops its price it would be expected to do better than it has done now. 

All points to one thing.... price is important.



Aeolus451 on 11 December 2017
Playstation_awaiter said:
If Sony has no deals for Dec, then it confirms they only wanted to win Nov NPD since winning on Xbox X launch is a huge or win for them.

You really think  that sony wouldn't do some kind of deals for december?



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Intrinsic on 11 December 2017
tbone51 said:
quickrick said:

it not because it lost november, but because got destroyed being outsold 2:1.

What do you say about japan sales when its 4:1?

This one is easy though.....

Japan obviously is moving away from the "traditional" console. Just look at sales of the WiiU and PS4 over there. Don't forget that the PS4 has been out there for almost 4 years. Obviously dedicated home consoles are not showing anywhere near the same amount of adoption that other regions are showing compared to japan.

But lets even take this further.

So it won japan by 4:1..... yay. What are those numbers? You would be surprised to know that 4:1 may not be as good as 2:1. Kinda the same way how in one month, with one 2:1 win, all the wins the NS has had in NA this year was just negated.



Lawlight on 11 December 2017
tbone51 said:
quickrick said:

it not because it lost november, but because got destroyed being outsold 2:1.

What do you say about japan sales when its 4:1?

You mean the one country moving away from consoles and whose devs are focusing more and more on the west.



jason1637 on 11 December 2017
Shadow1980 said:
zorg1000 said:
zorg1000 said: 
quickrick said: 

i said for all we know, i think it's possible. i'm pretty sure 2018 it won't sell as much as 2017 in US, and europe. 3ds peaked it's first year.

There is a massive difference between peak and fall off a cliff.

3DS sales dropped from 13.95 to 13.51, which is like a 3% drop, hardly falling off a cliff.

yea falling off a cliff is unlikely, but slowing down in us and europe is very likely, but japan will make up for it.


Heres the post, you agreed that it wont fall off a cliff but will drop somewhat in the west which will be cancelled out by Japan.

What part of that post was him and which was you? I'm really confused by the lack of quote boxes.

jason1637 said:

Do you have a chart for the best Novembers for the console market?

As a matter of fact I do:


As we can see, the list is utterly dominated by the Wii, 360, PS4, & XBO. The only other system to show in the list was the PS2 and PS1, with its 1.3M sold in Nov. 2002 ranking at #5 and it's second-best November being all the way down at #15, with the PS1's best November placing #14. The 360 takes the #2, #4, and #9 positions for 2011, 2010, and 2012, respectively.

Not only does this show how freakishly popular the Wii was, it also shows how important November has become in recent years for PlayStation & Xbox. Prior to 2011, November was a much smaller portion of overall Q4 sales for the two brands. 2011 was when we really started to see aggressive Black Friday promotions, notably the temporary price cuts that are now the norm. While it's hard to say if November's growing importance has come at the expense of December, there's no doubt that November has been on the rise.

Wow November has been really strong this this gen and Switch should be #19 when we get numbers. Not bad for their first November.



tbone51 on 11 December 2017
Intrinsic said:
tbone51 said:

What do you say about japan sales when its 4:1?

This one is easy though.....

Japan obviously is moving away from the "traditional" console. Just look at sales of the WiiU and PS4 over there. Don't forget that the PS4 has been out there for almost 4 years. Obviously dedicated home consoles are not showing anywhere near the same amount of adoption that other regions are showing compared to japan.

But lets even take this further.

So it won japan by 4:1..... yay. What are those numbers? You would be surprised to know that 4:1 may not be as good as 2:1. Kinda the same way how in one month, with one 2:1 win, all the wins the NS has had in NA this year was just negated.

 

Lawlight said:
tbone51 said:

What do you say about japan sales when its 4:1?

You mean the one country moving away from consoles and whose devs are focusing more and more on the west.

Look what i was quoting, he said because ps4 did 2:1 agaisnt switch in Nov he thinks switch now is losing interest aka it will heavily decline next year. I said japan to say that even if ps4 gets outsold 4:1 doesnt mean ps4 is just all of a sudden decline (overall WW)



tbone51 on 11 December 2017
Intrinsic said:
tbone51 said:

Alot of ifs. What if switch launched at $250 instead? How about $150? How about $400? 

 

And your wrong, majority thought it wouldnt do well at all back in the beginning of the year. All you do is need to find the threads back in jan/feb

I think your attempt to disprove his argument is just reinforcing it.

All he's saying is that pricing matters. So its weird comparing sales of  something that released at $399 to something that released at $299. I don't get how that concept is so hard to accept unless you just don't wanna accept it. 

Then the bolded part in your post... just goes to prove what I am saying, cause it means you actually get it.

If the PS4/NS sold 800k at $400/$300 respectively, then common sense dictates that if they were $300/$200 respectively at that same time they would have sold more. Which means that if the argument is that both are performing the exact same or similar, then you cannot ignore the one major differentiating factor which is the price.

And this goes in all directions. At $299 in it first holiday PS4 would have sold more than it did. In its first holiday at $199 PS4 would be expected to sell more than the NS at $299. When the NS drops its price it would be expected to do better than it has done now. 

All points to one thing.... price is important.

I explain things bad, anything with a lower price will sell more than it did with a higher price. That is true. That said if ps4 was 299 then it wouldnt be a powerful console (launch) and things would pan out very differently.

 

Second because Lawlight keeps bringing it up he is basically saying that we cannot make fair comparisons to any HW because its not the same price. Like its not fair to compare x1 to ps4 as that was $100 difference at launch.

 

Its not fair to compare switch to 3ds because they had a $50 price difference at launch and a $130 difference 1st holiday.

 

Look Lawlight just said again to zorg switch bench mark is 1.65mil because that is what 3ds did in dec 2011. But for the ps4 all of a sudden its not a fair comparison because it was a $100 difference