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Forums - Sales Discussion - November 2017 NPD Thread! PS4 > XBO > Switch

Megiddo said:
I'm curious, what was the library of games like for the PS4 in November 2014, since that's what keeps getting brought up?

Switch has two of Nintendo's most popular icons leading the charge and the follow-up to its best selling new IP in its first year. There is no question that this has been an absolute killing of year in terms of iconic releases for Switch. I don't recall PS4 having nearly as good of an opening year in terms of the BIG releases, but is that just cause I can't remember that far back?

Zelda BotW, Splatoon 2, and Mario Odyssey are all huge must-own games for the Switch, so why would people put off purchasing one during the holidays this year if not for price aversion?

February-Thief, Plants vs Zombies: Garden Warfare

March-Infamous: Second Son, Metal Gear Solid: Ground Zeroes

April-MLB 14: The Show, Final Fantasy XIV

May-Wolfenstein: The New Order, Watch Dogs

June-EA Sports UFC, Sniper Elite III

July-The Last of Us

August-Infamous: First Light, Madden 15

September-Destiny, FIFA 15

October-The Evil Within, Alien: Isolation, WWE 2K15, NBA 2K15, DriveClub, Nathan Drake Collection

November-Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare, Assassin's Creed: Unity, Grand Theft Auto V, Dragon Age: Inquisition, Far Cry 4, LittleBigPlanet 3

December-The Crew

 

PS4 had a ton of huge games in 2014. Nov alone had Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed & Grand Theft Auto, thats huge.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 said:
gcwy said:
I think this is a clear indication of the interest in Switch dropping. It had no supply issues in this region, the $299 was still considerably less than the Pro or Xbox One X and it also had Mario and Zelda going for it this year, something that won't be true for next year. I don't see 2018 being a good year for Switch. It has no interesting big name exclusive, I don't think either Metroid or Pokemon will make it to 2018. I hope it pulls through and succeeds, though. With the Wii U failing, at least Nintendo had the 3DS to rely on.

You're really jumping the gun here.

Switch did right about the same amount as PS4 did in Nov 2014, did you think interest in PS4 was dropping then?

I dont know how anyone can comment on Switch's 2018 lineup when we know next to nothing about it yet. At this point last year Zelda was the only 1st party game Nintendo had announced. If we get a Nintendo Direct next month and the 2018 lineup still looks lackluster than you will have a point but at this moment it is way to soon.

Sure 2018 could see a big drop in sales but there is literally nothing to support that argument yet.

I forgot about the Jan Direct, but there's absolutely nothing to suggest that either Metroid or Pokemon will see a 2018 release except for the 3DS Pokemon port rumour we got a few months back. I guess I was trying to say that we will see a significant decrease in YOY sales next year.

zorg1000 said:
gcwy said:
I think it will do around slightly less than GameCube numbers. I wouldn't say it will 'fail'. But the momentum is sure to drop like a brick after the holiday months.

I'm curious, how long did the Wii U keep its sales momentum going?

You really need to do some research before commenting on sales.

Wii U momemtum lasted 6 weeks, not months, WEEKS.

Switch is on track to sell more in 10 months than Wii U did in 4 years.

Even if Switch sales next year drop 50%, it will outsell GC lifetime numbers by the end of next year.

Im not trying to be a jerk but this site has alot of great data to look through so please do some research before commenting on anything sales related.

That's interesting. Do you have a source for this? I was under the impression the Wii U sold well for at least 3 months before Nintendo considered it wasn't doing as well as the Wii.

Mr.GameCrazy said:
gcwy said:
I think this is a clear indication of the interest in Switch dropping. It had no supply issues in this region, the $299 was still considerably less than the Pro or Xbox One X and it also had Mario and Zelda going for it this year, something that won't be true for next year. I don't see 2018 being a good year for Switch. It has no interesting big name exclusive, I don't think either Metroid or Pokemon will make it to 2018. I hope it pulls through and succeeds, though. With the Wii U failing, at least Nintendo had the 3DS to rely on.

Way too early to assume that considering it was best month of sales for the Switch since launch month (that is iirc).

I'm pretty sure it sold almost a million in it's launch month. If you're excluding March, Nov would obviously have the highest sales of any preceding month.



KLAMarine said:
Tulipanzo said:
Just goes to show how big Black Friday is that Nintendo is so far behind despite winning the last couple months

What do you mean?

In sales for this month vs. their competition, admittedly worded poorly. 
There is clearly interest in the Switch, but a lot of people tend to go for discounted items, like PS4 for instance 



gcwy said:
zorg1000 said:

You're really jumping the gun here.

Switch did right about the same amount as PS4 did in Nov 2014, did you think interest in PS4 was dropping then?

I dont know how anyone can comment on Switch's 2018 lineup when we know next to nothing about it yet. At this point last year Zelda was the only 1st party game Nintendo had announced. If we get a Nintendo Direct next month and the 2018 lineup still looks lackluster than you will have a point but at this moment it is way to soon.

Sure 2018 could see a big drop in sales but there is literally nothing to support that argument yet.

I forgot about the Jan Direct, but there's absolutely nothing to suggest that either Metroid or Pokemon will see a 2018 release except for the 3DS Pokemon port rumour we got a few months back. I guess I was trying to say that we will see a significant decrease in YOY sales next year.

zorg1000 said:

You really need to do some research before commenting on sales.

Wii U momemtum lasted 6 weeks, not months, WEEKS.

Switch is on track to sell more in 10 months than Wii U did in 4 years.

Even if Switch sales next year drop 50%, it will outsell GC lifetime numbers by the end of next year.

Im not trying to be a jerk but this site has alot of great data to look through so please do some research before commenting on anything sales related.

That's interesting. Do you have a source for this? I was under the impression the Wii U sold well for at least 3 months before Nintendo considered it wasn't doing as well as the Wii.

Mr.GameCrazy said:

Way too early to assume that considering it was best month of sales for the Switch since launch month (that is iirc).

I'm pretty sure it sold almost a million in it's launch month. If you're excluding March, Nov would obviously have the highest sales of any preceding month.

You are correct that Metroid & Pokemon could miss 2018 but looking at their track record of making announcements close to release we could easily get some major games at the Jan Direct & E3. Some examples include Smash Bros, Animal Crossing or 2D Mario which are all capable of selling over 10 million.

And NPD January 2013 (3rd month on market) has Wii U at 57k while Media Create had it dropping to under 10k shortly after launch.

Switch did more last month than Wii U did in Nov 2013+2013+2015 combined.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

This may actually be a good thing for Nintendo, though their stock may drop and some developers still on the fence might lose confidence.

This was an uphill battle, everyone knew that.  PS4 and XBX have been seasoned for a lot longer, so when these new versions and price cuts hit, nothing was stopping this onslaught.  PS4 at $200?  Heck yeah.  Nintendo probably should have had a 2 day price drop on the Switch to $250, but in the end it probably won't be needed.

Key points:

1) With strong Black Friday numbers, Sony puts off creating a portable version to combat Switch, thinking interest in the product may be waning

2) Nintendo still has all the plans for next year that have yet to be revealed and new 3rd party dedications to help push the console

3) Pokemon plans will probably be more robust than some expect

4) This is the primary PS4 push before the end of the lifecycle - those who have stayed away from PS4 are getting their systems now

5) Tortoise and hare scenario where Nintendo represents the tortoise.  Month on Month average better than the Black Friday discounted rush.

6) Word of mouth will spread with more systems purchased, more games launched

7) Switch has already won Japan

In short, Nintendo has to fight hard yet another year and exceed the industry's expectations again to pull off full market penetration.



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OfficerRaichu15 said:
When your console sells 900k in November with no deals like the other two and your now considered as losing interest. Then you look at online retailers and the console is in the top 10 everywhere..

 

Acevil said:
OfficerRaichu15 said:
When your console sells 900k in November with no deals like the other two and your now considered as losing interest. Then you look at online retailers and the console is in the top 10 everywhere..

What I find amusing, is they would use ZhugeEx information to downplay one, when he highlights all three did amazing well.

Are we all going t just pretend that the switch isn't only like 6 months old an "competing" with 4 year old consoles? 

Or that its being compared to a first holiday of other consoles that came over a year after they had released and that while one of those consoles saw discounts they were still both more expensive than the $300 asking price of the switch.

I am not saying the thing is failing or going to fail. I am saying that  all things considered I saw no reason why it wouldn't have sold more even at the current pricing. Which is why I predicted it comes second in november with over 1300K sales.

I mean, two of the biggest IPs on any nintnedo platform have already made a showing on the hardware.... and say next year nintendo drops the price to what? $250 and include a game? (which is something i don't see nintendo doing to be honest) are people here really suggesting that going from $299 to $249 is all the push that is needed?



RolStoppable said:
Why is this thread is so big before actual numbers have arrived? I am not going to skim through the thread, I'll simply assume that many people aren't able to connect the dots.

Switch shipments for the holiday quarter are going to be ~6m of which ~2.5m go to the Americas, ~1.7m to Japan and ~1.8m to Others. The USA aren't the only country of America, so slash off 10% of the 2.5m and you are left with ~2.2m. 400k October, 900k November and 900k December. Those are roughly the sales that could be expected in the USA, +/- 100k in every month.

There originally were estimated numbers for each console.



RolStoppable said:
VGPolyglot said:

There originally were estimated numbers for each console.

I saw as much earlier this week when I read the first page of the thread. But apparently the estimate for Switch was debunked early and the actual number was hinted at being around 900k.

Well, another reason why there are so many comments is because the Switch is in 3rd place, behind the PS4 and XB1.



Intrinsic said:
OfficerRaichu15 said:
When your console sells 900k in November with no deals like the other two and your now considered as losing interest. Then you look at online retailers and the console is in the top 10 everywhere..

 

Acevil said:

What I find amusing, is they would use ZhugeEx information to downplay one, when he highlights all three did amazing well.

Are we all going t just pretend that the switch isn't only like 6 months old an "competing" with 4 year old consoles? 

Or that its being compared to a first holiday of other consoles that came over a year after they had released and that while one of those consoles saw discounts they were still both more expensive than the $300 asking price of the switch.

I am not saying the thing is failing or going to fail. I am saying that  all things considered I saw no reason why it wouldn't have sold more even at the current pricing. Which is why I predicted it comes second in november with over 1300K sales.

I mean, two of the biggest IPs on any nintnedo platform have already made a showing on the hardware.... and say next year nintendo drops the price to what? $250 and include a game? (which is something i don't see nintendo doing to be honest) are people here really suggesting that going from $299 to $249 is all the push that is needed?

To the first line, Isn't the 3rd or 4th year the prime years for majority of consoles. The fact it is actually able to compete is some what impressive, this was the same DOA console that actually seemed to get things right and hitting its stride, and now people are saying 800,000 in November is bad?

To the second line, Can also go the other way, since it is hybrid, the fact it actually beating 3DS/Vita at higher price point shows that it is indeed healthy.

It is all about value in the end, if consumers perceive value. For example: I thought PS4 at 399.99 has/had more value than 299.99 Switch, I bought both at launch. I think the Switch is tad bit overpriced, while I had no issue 399.99 PS4 pricing at the time. Also note Xbox One had games bundled in to also sweeten the pot with the price tag of 329.99, only reason it beat PS4 at 399.99 in my eyes. 

The thing is, these consoles are priced competitively to their value. We live in age where $1,000 Phone can easily beat $500 Phones, because of perceived value, and we still compare there market shares both unit and revenue. 

Third Line, I thought it might do more as well (My prediction was 1 million), however I do not remotely consider 800,000 bad numbers or failing. The issue is a lot of people in this thread are treating like switch is just going to disappear it this stage. One person even said it would do less than the gamecube (posted in another thread, but also posted in here similar lines). 

Fourth line, while I do not know if can keep up full momentum of being or beating 14 million in FY 2018-2019. I think it should still have healthy 10-12 million, Yes I do expect a price cut, and I do expect more solid games. The biggest title for it has yet to come out, which is Pokemon.  Also just going for $299.99 to $249.99 alone will not cut it, it will need solid library as well, which I believe it will have. 

Last edited by Acevil - on 10 December 2017

 

RolStoppable said:
VGPolyglot said:

There originally were estimated numbers for each console.

I saw as much earlier this week when I read the first page of the thread. But apparently the estimate for Switch was debunked early and the actual number was hinted at being around 900k.

where was it stated switch was 900K? you're making things up now.