thismeintiel said:
jason1637 said:
The PS4 is still selling really well and the Pro came out last year. Its very possible 2018 could be the peak year and I don't know why Sony will cut the PS4s sales by going with a PS5 in 2019. I think the PS5 is a 2020 thing. Or even 2021.
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You could ask yourself that same question for any of their consoles, really. The answer is, they aren't cutting their sales short. They are making sure the PS momentum continues. As soon as interest starts to wane in the old console, then BAM! here's the new one. Not only do the new systems sell well, but the old ones continue to sell well, too. The PS1 still sold ~30M after the PS2 launched. The PS2 sold 50M+ after the PS3 launched. Again, the only outlier was the PS3.
The reasons it didn't sell so well after the PS4 launched are many fold. First, it wasn't quite the force the other PS systems were (which the PS4 is, again.) Second, they weren't able to drop the price to $199 until after the PS4 launched, while the PS1 was $99 and the PS2 $129 when their successors were launched (the PS4 should at least be able to get down to $149.) And third, the PS3 had an extended time on the market before the PS4 launched. If you the PS4 launched in 2012, and sales for the PS3 stayed similar, it would have done ~20M after the PS4 launched, as opposed to ~8M (I think Sony is going back to the model that worked best for them, a 6 year gen length.)
The fact is the people waiting to buy a PS4 at ~$149 are not the same people willing to buy a PS5 at $399. I could see the PS4 easily hitting 20M+ after the PS5 launches, even if its in late 2019.
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Not sure if the 5-6 year model is really better or not than 7 years, even more when we look at PS4Pro and PSVR to increase duration of the gen. PS3 was able to push a lot of SW even on its late life. So if PS3 being weaker than the other by having an extended life managed almost 90M LT and like 1B in SW, perhaps if it had a strong momentum and selling power as PS4 it would be even better and benefiting from longer life. This gen may answer that.
Noobie said:
DonFerrari said:
Yep, I believe on a roughly 2 years after decline start for the next gen to launch... so 2020-2021 is my expectation as well, it will depend on how shap the decline become.
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I believe Sony needs to fix the launch date before designing the components for their PS5. They can't build a system on components coming out in 2021 and then release the system in 2020 after a sudden drop in PS4. or build a system on components of 2018 and then delay it by a year or two if they find PS4 doing pretty well.
Definitely they have some flexibility in extending the design by lot of things get built around the specification of the hardware like compilers, IDEs, debugging units, game engines. So we can all argue on when Sony will be launching the PS5 but i m quite certain that Sony by now must have finalized the release year and components of the system.
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Let me break it down a little since I didn't developed my point here as I done in other threads that were more about it.
The 2-3 years cycle to release after noticing a decline is like, PS5 have been under development ever since PS4 or at least PS4Pro released that is how it happens every single gen. They go for some years making some general aspects and power level they want for the next gen. When they have a precise perception of decline is when they will set the "final specs" that they will pass the next 12-18 months designing the the HW over, and on the next 12-18 months producing prototypes, dev kits, sending the specs to the devs to work on the next gen game, etc.
The reason we have games on the start of the gen even if it takes 2-3 years to dev a game is because they start deving a game before even knowing the spec of the next gen, but "gambling" on the likely ballpark of a system around 400-500USD (based on the price of PC components and the savings console makers do, and of course some dev for high level PC so that would be just a port) and when they get the dev kit is more final touchs and debbuging that they need to do to release.