You’ll have no luck with that. Switch has good chances to catch up with X1 early 2019 already. It shows no signs of slowing down and why would it?! It’s library is only going to get bigger and the more people buy it the more companies will support it.

How much out of 101 million vs. how much out of 7.6 million?

I don't know, hardcore is an arbitrary term in the first place, but with 101 million it's probably a lot higher than a console with 7.6 million.

As usual, it's pointless to argue if Switch will be a success or failure without talking actual numbers.

Because otherwise, anyone will ultimately claim that his prediction came true:
"It sold more units than the WiiU, so I was right claiming it was a success!"
"It sold less units than , so I was right claiming it was a failure!"

So here we go, let's talk some meaningless bullshit:
As a home console, it will be a failure - but as a portable console/NDS successor, it will be a success.

Like a month, maybe a month an a half. The idea that the Wii u was a switch level success at launch is a myth. In reality it did ok at launch then sales tanked and never recovered

It's a fad? WIIU had terrible first party support. This has great support and it's still about games and they are still on top of their game. I think the op is kinda dum...or short sited

I remember sales jumping to like 33k the week of Lego City Undercover and that being a cause for minor celebration.  

Also, the Wii U was rarely sold out during the holidays.  It was in and out of stock, but most times you could find one.

If i remember correctly, June 2014 (Mario Kart month) was the only non-holiday month over 100k according to NPD.

On the other hand, Switch has only gone under 200k once and that was due to stock shortages.

Yeah.  The Wii U was clearly in trouble from basically the beginning.  There was initially some hope of it rebounding, but E3 2013 showed that there was no real savior on the horizon.  Unless an asteroid hits Japan in the next few months, the Switch will definitely surpass the Wii U.

Although, don't home consoles have a lower bar than handhelds in terms of successfulness? The worst selling Nintendo handheld is at around 70 million and still counting, while on terms of home consoles you've got the Wii U at around 13 million, Gamecube around 20 million and N64 around 30 million. Xbox also did around 30 million and Dreamcast did 8 million. The only major handhelds to do poor numbers were the GameGear and PSVita at around 10 million and 15 million.

I'd say a home console for Nintendo it only needs to sell around 50 million to be a success, but as a portable console and especially if calling it an NDS successor it should really be aiming for at least 60-70 million.