Veknoid_Outcast said: I guess I just don't get why some folks constantly hammer home the viewpoint that Switch (or any Nintendo system) is dead in the water without "AAA" third-party games. There's just no precedent for that notion. If anything, there's precedent for the opposite. When Nintendo tried to accommodate AAA third-parties and/or count on them to fill gaps in its software line-up, it was typically unsuccessful. See GCN, WiiU. When Nintendo creates a platform designed to succeed in the absence of AAA third-party support, it usually flourishes. See GBA, DS, Wii, 3DS, and now Switch. |
You're joking, right? All of those you mentioned (we'll see how the Switch continues in this regard) as successes had GREAT 3rd party support, especially in Japan. The only one that is questionable is the Wii. But, that is only because it got shovelware, not because it lacked 3rd party games. Which could explain its sales nosediving after its 3rd year.
@ OP
I'm on the fence on this one. The Switch has had a really good start. It didn't quite match the PS4's first Nov NPD after launch, even with being $100 cheaper and having plenty of stock, but it was still close. Of course, that was the year PS4 had stock issues in Nov, leading to a XBO victory, so it could have been worse for the Switch.
The real problem for Nintendo comes in 2019. It'll be a full year of people realizing that AA and AAA studios aren't porting all, or most, of their games to the Switch. Its launch hype will have faded and it will be still be competing in the very competitive mobile market. And, more importantly, we will be approaching the announcement of the PS5. When the Switch is mostly sitting still (I do expect a slightly upgraded model, eventually), home consoles will be yet another generation ahead of the Switch. This is going to make the port situation even more sketchy, unless it greatly outpaces the 3DS, which I don't see happening.
Of course, it's not all doom and gloom. The Switch will still continue to do great in Japan and get plenty of support there. Everywhere else it will still do OK/good. The real problem is how fickle the mobile market is. Ever since it went mainstream, it cut the handheld market in more than half. We went from the PSP and DS selling more than 230M units, to the 3DS and Vita not even hitting 100M. I think it will shrink a little bit more this gen, too.
We'll just have to wait and see how things settle in 2018. I could see the Switch continuing strong and matching the sales of the 3DS, but I could also see how it could falter in the years to come and not hit 50M.