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Forums - Sales Discussion - Bold Prediction : PS4 goes over 130m Lifetime.

 

PS4 > 130m lifetime?

yes 43 48.31%
 
no 40 44.94%
 
see results. 6 6.74%
 
Total:89
loy310 on 01 December 2017
JRPGfan said:
Mbolibombo said:

You are expecting it to double it sales from now? :O

Its end of november.... PS4 is probably around 73m (its 4th year)?

Yeah Im expecing it to almost double, from now on.

I think 2020 (3years from now) is when the PS5 launches, and I think PS4 will be really cheap when that happends, and keep selling.

Imagine this:

2018 : ~18m year (about same as 2017)

2019 : ~16m year

2020 : ~13m year

= 127m

It keeps selling after PS5 launches too, because at this point its really cheap.

I think people are projecting too big of a drop off once ps5 launches. In my opinion a media device/game console like the ps4 offer a lot of value once the gen ends. The ps4 can be used for way more than playing current games. So in my opinion ps4 will have stronger legs than ps3 did. So hitting 130 after ps5 launches is very possible. Sony will certainly have to offer some type of ps4 backwards compatibility to get people to move on from the ps4 otherwise folks might hang on to their ps4 well into next gen. With my ps4 I feel compelled to not trade it in to upgrade, think I might keep it hooked up to a tv till it stops working even if I buy a ps5.

Hell, I still have my ps3 hooked up in another room, when people come over they can use it to watch Vue or Netflix.



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loy310 on 01 December 2017
kazuyamishima said:
If Sony put the price at $199 starting in January, they could do that, BF 2018 $149 and BF 2019 $99.

No way ps4 is profitable below $199, Sony most likely end production before dropping below $199.



JRPGfan on 02 December 2017
loy310 said:
kazuyamishima said:
If Sony put the price at $199 starting in January, they could do that, BF 2018 $149 and BF 2019 $99.

No way ps4 is profitable below $199, Sony most likely end production before dropping below $199.

If they shrink it to 7nm.... it might be possible to not lose anything on a 149$ model.



GribbleGrunger on 02 December 2017

Dreams won't be releasing in 2019, it will be releasing in 2018. I'm not sure about 130m though. ... It IS 'bold'. I'll give you that.



 

The PS5 Exists. 


zorg1000 on 02 December 2017
Lawlight said:
zorg1000 said:
I think 130m is certainly possible but things like Yakuza & Fist of the North Star are definitely not the reason.

They’re not the sole reason.

I dont think they are even part of the reason.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Barkley on 02 December 2017
VideoGameAccountant said:

I do think projections for PS4 are overly aggressive anyway. Sony projected a decline in shipments which means a decline in sales going forward. 2017 will likely be about 2016 and then decline thereafter. 2018 will not see 20 million sold (18m would be good).

It could probably break 100 million over the next two years, but I think it will end up right around there.

Huh? Am I misunderstanding something?

You think they could ship 18m in 2018, you then follow this with saying you think it'll finish with around 100m sold?

You do realise that 2017 shipments are forecast for 19m, so 79m shipped total, add on the 18m you think it may get for next year brings us to 97m. But you expect it to "end up" around 100m sold.

Nice. As for the Third Parties focusing on Switch over ps4/xbo/pc. Well it's not worth the time to address.



WhatATimeToBeAlive on 02 December 2017
VideoGameAccountant said:
It's to bolds, and it's for a simple reason: the PS5 will come out sooner than everyone is expecting.

Sony has already stated that the PS4 Pro was a defensive move against PC, as they noted consumers move to PC in a console's midlife. The PS5 will be another half-step to keep players on PlayStation. With more revenue coming from PSPlus, they want to keep consumers on as long as possible. This means Sony has a greater incentive to keep people on PS and not migrating. There is also the reality of Nintendo Switch which will absorb a lot of Sony's software pipeline. Because Sony is dependent on third-party companies to bring the software, they can't let Nintendo remain unchallenged. If Sony waits to long, all of the new projects that are starting could be Switch focused or a Switch exclusive. The big driver is PC, but I think Sony will move as Switch gets more and more software (removing Sony's competitive advantage over Nintendo).

I do think projections for PS4 are overly aggressive anyway. Sony projected a decline in shipments which means a decline in sales going forward. 2017 will likely be about 2016 and then decline thereafter. 2018 will not see 20 million sold (18m would be good).

It could probably break 100 million over the next two years, but I think it will end up right around there.

What kind of (Nintendo) mushrooms have you been eating? Did you even read what you wrote?

"PS4 sales will be 18m in 2018 and after that it will sell 2m." "All of the new projects that are starting could be Switch focused or a Switch exclusive."

You must be living in some alternative Nintendo-universe. 



"The rumours of my death have been greatly exaggerated."

- Single-player Game

zygote on 02 December 2017

I have a feeling that PS4 numbers will drop off much more than we expect this next year. I'm not saying the drop off will be dramatic, but numbers will not be as high and will signal the coming end of the generation. I think VR has added some extra legs to the PS4. It is still left to see if Switch eats away huge chunks from the market, if VR will replace a portion of that gap given the bundle pushes this season, or if the numbers will be low enough to influence next gen console launches for 2019.

Personally, I think that the increasing Switch adoption rate with the lower platform sales this next year will push for new console releases in 2019.

To your prediction though, it is quite possible given the situation.

Last edited by zygote - on 02 December 2017

WhatATimeToBeAlive on 02 December 2017

How do you think that VR has added any significant legs to PS4 when it has sold around 1,5m units?



"The rumours of my death have been greatly exaggerated."

- Single-player Game

StreaK on 02 December 2017

PS4 = 130-140 million. I almost GUARANTEE that!