killeryoshis said:
RolStoppable said:
I think launch-aligned Wii and Switch are pretty close. Wii stopped being sold out in its first fall, but Wii also launched three months farther away from fall. Wii had a baseline of around 60k before fall while Switch had ~25k in May and June and later on ~45k; so yeah, launch-aligned the total amount of Switches sold might still be lagging behind Wii.
That being said, Switch is bound to take the lead and afterwards maintain better momentum during its second year. Japanese third parties treated Wii like an outcast, but since then the market has changed so much. Back then there was a choice between Wii, DS, PS3, PSP and 360 (Microsoft was throwing cash around, so it wasn't about installed base alone); now it's only PS4 and Switch.
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You bring up a good point. The Wii had to compete with 4 other platforms for support but the Switch only has 1. If the Switch continues the trend of Nintendo getting more 3rd party support then it would really help. Now I wonder if Sony letting the Switch have such a big headstart will hurt the PS5 by any big degree in Japan. Japanese developers don't care about power as much as western ones do so we might be in some more surprises in the next few years.
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In Japan, the PS5 is going to do poorly regardless (unless its a hybrid like Switch, which I doubt). But as far as Japanese development goes, I would say yes.
The DS was the go to system for both Japanese consumers and developers. The system got tons of games and numerous exclusives from major third-party developers. This was with numerous competing systems (as Rol points out). With the 8th Generation, there was a general decline in the market. The 3DS didn't do as well as the DS, the Vita fizzled out and home consoles don't do well. I believe this is ultimately promoted developers to make console games. If you've seen any discussion about Monster Hunter Worlds, the argument is "They have to make games on the PS4/XBone so they can sell overseas." I think's that's true, and it was prompted by a contracting console market in Japan. In 2008, 12.4 million hardware units were sold in Japan. In 2016, that's down to 4.9 million. That number has declined almost every year and sales have been driven by the 3DS. This year, hardware sales are looking to be up after consistent declines over the last few years. This is why Japanese developers are already trying to get games on the system. Also, with the Switch as a hyrbid, there is no long the "handheld" game and the "console" game. It's just one, so Switch may also suck of console development that would have otherwise gone to Sony. I expect Japanese developers will become exclusively (or at least primarily) Switch.
What Sony doesn't understand is that cross-generational systems don't affect one another. This is why the PS2 was the best selling console for Holiday 2005 despite the XBox 360 launching. Sony assumes that because PS4 is doing well despite the Switch's launch means Switch doesn't affect Sony when it actually, Switch doesn't affect PS4. It WILL affect PS5, and that's what Sony may be ignoring.
Sony's biggest problem coming into Gen 9 is the software pipeline. You can already see the issue. Every game Sony shows off at these events isn't coming out for a year or two. That new Samurai game from Sucker Punch isn't coming out until 2019. God of War was announced back in 2016. Death Standing has basically been concept trailers with no release date in sight. Sony's focus on 4K and VR are going to split their software pipeline essentially reverting back into the problem Nintendo had in Gen 8. Sony has succeeded by attracting developers to their platform. Having "no games" is going to hurt them far worst than it ever affects Nintendo. Gen 9 will be interesting to see.
