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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Switch Is Succeeding Without Blue Ocean Casuals, Nintendo Should Not Forget This.

TheMisterManGuy said:

The problem with Soundwave's entire theory is the notion that a console can sustain itself on hardcore fans alone. That's never the case. Most of the most successful consoles of all time like the PlayStation and DS, reached those insane 100m+ numbers because they appealed to audiences outside of what we consider "gamers". So this notion that Nintendo can banish all of their casual series, even games like Animal Crossing to just smartdevices is unhealthy for their business.

Plus, it's delusional to think the Switch only appeals to the "core gamer", when the console was designed to be friendly and accessible to those who don't even play home console games. Now, I will say that Nintendo's strategy is different from the Wii in that Nintendo is no long using a dedicated home console to introduce people to Video Games as a medium, that job has been taken by Smartphones. But you'd be a fool to think their overall creative and commercial phillosophy from the past 10 years has changed with the Switch. 

The idea of casual vs core vs hardcore is beyond me, the only thing that exists in my eyes are "demographics". Nintendo banishing all of their so called "casual" series to just mobile devices almost realistically makes sense once we consider the massive decline Brain Age and Nintendogs underwent in the transition from DS to 3DS. I suspect the only reason why Nintendo would still bring in series such as Animal Crossing and Pokemon to their platforms is because the customers value the content and not the functionality ... (after all, Pocket Camp sounds like a pretty damn good conversion all things considered and controls are not stopping a series in a turn based game such as Pokemon from succeeding on mobile platforms) 



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fatslob-:O said:
TheMisterManGuy said:

The problem with Soundwave's entire theory is the notion that a console can sustain itself on hardcore fans alone. That's never the case. Most of the most successful consoles of all time like the PlayStation and DS, reached those insane 100m+ numbers because they appealed to audiences outside of what we consider "gamers". So this notion that Nintendo can banish all of their casual series, even games like Animal Crossing to just smartdevices is unhealthy for their business.

Plus, it's delusional to think the Switch only appeals to the "core gamer", when the console was designed to be friendly and accessible to those who don't even play home console games. Now, I will say that Nintendo's strategy is different from the Wii in that Nintendo is no long using a dedicated home console to introduce people to Video Games as a medium, that job has been taken by Smartphones. But you'd be a fool to think their overall creative and commercial phillosophy from the past 10 years has changed with the Switch. 

The idea of casual vs core vs hardcore is beyond me, the only thing that exists in my eyes are "demographics". Nintendo banishing all of their so called "casual" series to just mobile devices almost realistically makes sense once we consider the massive decline Brain Age and Nintendogs underwent in the transition from DS to 3DS. I suspect the only reason why Nintendo would still bring in series such as Animal Crossing and Pokemon to their platforms is because the customers value the content and not the functionality ... (after all, Pocket Camp sounds like a pretty damn good conversion all things considered and controls are not stopping a series in a turn based game such as Pokemon from succeeding on mobile platforms) 

Here's the thing, casual games are more than just Wii/DS era "non-game" concepts. Splatoon and ARMS can be considered casual games because they have simple rules and controls that even people who don't play their respective genres can enjoy.  While it would make sense to transition some of the more "Non-Game" concepts like Brain Age and Nintendogs to Smartphones, that doesn't mean the Switch has to be all hardcore, all the time like OP is talking about. There's room for casual, and core games on the Switch, and Nintendo is definitely targeting a broad audience with the console. 

I feel OP is going to be pretty disappointed if he thinks next year's going to be a big hardcore Nintendo fanboy wet-dream. Because Nintendo is more than likely going to spend much of next year, reinforcing the Switch's appeal to broader demographics. This has been something that's been alluded to by Kimishima, Koizumi, and Takahashi multiple times. 



Soundwave said:

We've seen demographic break downs of the Switch that say as much from Nintendo directly, but we see it even more and more with up to date software trends on the system ... 

Look at the top 10 software for October:

Nintendo Switch

  1. Super Mario Odyssey
  2. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild
  3. Mario Kart 8
  4. Fire Emblem: Warriors
  5. Pokken Tournament DX
  6. Splatoon 2
  7. Mario & Rabbids: Kingdom Battle
  8. FIFA 18
  9. NBA 2K18
  10. Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2
Interesting take there is not only are things like 1,2 Switch no where close to long tail sellers, they've completely fallen off the top 10. ARMS which was Nintendo's other "motion gaming" experiment for the Switch, which is marketed like a Wii game has also collapsed out of the top 10. The new Just Dance 2018 also failed to make the Switch top 10. 
But you do see things like FIFA, NBA2K, and Fire Emblem Warriors present. Nintendo should be very careful how they proceed IMO the system is doing well because there's a good amount of content for the traditional gaming audience and the device is marketed at that crowd. If they veer too far away from this and try to rely on casuals they are going to get themselves into trouble. 
4/10 top games being 3rd party (Mario/Rabbids is published by Ubi Soft) is not a bad mix for a Nintendo system either. 

First, I think just looking at October is misleading. Games like Fire Emblem Warrior are going to be higher than ARMS because FEW released in October and ARMS released in June. 

Second, I think you don't understand what the "Blue Ocean" is. It's not "grandma and teh casuals." It's about expanding out of the current market (which usually numerous companies fight over) and make your own market. A Blue Ocean can even be a luxury product/service. I believe the book made the example of a barber shop that was higher class and was more of an experience. 

Video games, at the time, primarily appealed to young boys. Nintendo saw boys were playing fewer games (and Japan was aging in general) and decided to focus on a new market. This, the DS (the Wii is disruptive, which is a different but similar concept). Blue Oceans just means appealing to a new market. In fact, I would argue Splatoon is a Blue Ocean game. Where most shooters appeal to the US, Nintendo made a shooter that appeals to Japan. Games like Call of Duty and Halo don't do that well in Japan and the assumption was "Japan doesn't buy shooters." Now, Japan loves Splatoon. I've argued ARMS was Blue Ocean but it hasn't met my expectations.

The Switch may very well be a Blue Ocean system; however, Nintendo hasn't made that all to clear. I suspect Nintendo is partially targeting the mobile generation. iphone was released in 2007, so the young adults of today (18-25) have spent a good part of their life with mobile devices. This is also reflected as TV viewership has consistently declined. The "battle for the living room" that existed in 2006 doesn't in 2017.  From the marketing, I would say that it's targeting the mobile generation. This probably wasn't the only factor to the creation of the Switch, but I would venture to say that Nintendo is more closely looking at the mobile type consumers who care more about portability than power. To these people, the Switch would be seen as a premium console. 



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TheMisterManGuy said:

Here's the thing, casual games are more than just Wii/DS era "non-game" concepts. Splatoon and ARMS can be considered casual games because they have simple rules and controls that even people who don't play their respective genres can enjoy.  While it would make sense to transition some of the more "Non-Game" concepts like Brain Age and Nintendogs to Smartphones, that doesn't mean the Switch has to be all hardcore, all the time like OP is talking about. There's room for casual, and core games on the Switch, and Nintendo is definitely targeting a broad audience with the console. 

I feel OP is going to be pretty disappointed if he thinks next year's going to be a big hardcore Nintendo fanboy wet-dream. Because Nintendo is more than likely going to spend much of next year, reinforcing the Switch's appeal to broader demographics. This has been something that's been alluded to by Kimishima, Koizumi, and Takahashi multiple times. 

Except the problem with those statements is that the Switch, 7 months in is failing miserably at appealing beyond the older males in the US ... (I can't imagine the situation to be any better in Japan and in fact it's probably worse since it's a rapidly aging nation) 

If the Switch's userbase keeps persisting with less than 15% females and less than 25% being 18 and under at the end of this fiscal year in the US then there should be a cause for concern that the Switch may not have actually improved it's appeal just like the 3DS (where it too was dominated by older males) ... 



fatslob-:O said:
TheMisterManGuy said:

Here's the thing, casual games are more than just Wii/DS era "non-game" concepts. Splatoon and ARMS can be considered casual games because they have simple rules and controls that even people who don't play their respective genres can enjoy.  While it would make sense to transition some of the more "Non-Game" concepts like Brain Age and Nintendogs to Smartphones, that doesn't mean the Switch has to be all hardcore, all the time like OP is talking about. There's room for casual, and core games on the Switch, and Nintendo is definitely targeting a broad audience with the console. 

I feel OP is going to be pretty disappointed if he thinks next year's going to be a big hardcore Nintendo fanboy wet-dream. Because Nintendo is more than likely going to spend much of next year, reinforcing the Switch's appeal to broader demographics. This has been something that's been alluded to by Kimishima, Koizumi, and Takahashi multiple times. 

Except the problem with those statements is that the Switch, 7 months in is failing miserably at appealing beyond the older males in the US ... (I can't imagine the situation to be any better in Japan and in fact it's probably worse since it's a rapidly aging nation) 

If the Switch's userbase keeps persisting with less than 15% females and less than 25% being 18 and under at the end of this fiscal year in the US then there should be a cause for concern that the Switch may not have actually improved it's appeal just like the 3DS (where it too was dominated by older males) ... 

Which is why I think Nintendo has a plan for that going into 2018. They know the young adult male audience is satisfied. Their next priority should be to transition the kids still on the 3DS to the Switch, and try to get women and older people interested in the Switch as well.  Nintendo's never happy with pleasing just an isolated niche, they want everyone enjoying their products. Again, I think OP is being a bit delusional thinking that Nintendo's not going to do anything to expand the Switch's appeal. The console already has that appeal from it's concept alone, Nintendo simply needs to reinforce it. 



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TheMisterManGuy said:

Which is why I think Nintendo has a plan for that going into 2018. They know the young adult male audience is satisfied. Their next priority should be to transition the kids still on the 3DS to the Switch, and try to get women and older people interested in the Switch as well.  Nintendo's never happy with pleasing just an isolated niche, they want everyone enjoying their products. Again, I think OP is being a bit delusional thinking that Nintendo's not going to do anything to expand the Switch's appeal. The console already has that appeal from it's concept alone, Nintendo simply needs to reinforce it. 

We'll see but it's not looking good so far that the Switch's target audience is drowning in aged sausage ... 

Concept alone hasn't done much to increase the appeal for Switch these past months, I think it's going to be content that will increase the appeal of the Switch ... 

Games such as Animal Crossing have a wide female following and Pokemon still at least has a notable younger audience but those are just band-aids for a bigger problem where the legs for Nintendo's recognizable franchises on the Switch probably won't be as good as either the Wii or DS iterations since Zelda is at already 15th place, MK8D is at 16th place and Splatoon 2 is not charting anymore in the top 20 for NPD ... 



fatslob-:O said:
TheMisterManGuy said:

Which is why I think Nintendo has a plan for that going into 2018. They know the young adult male audience is satisfied. Their next priority should be to transition the kids still on the 3DS to the Switch, and try to get women and older people interested in the Switch as well.  Nintendo's never happy with pleasing just an isolated niche, they want everyone enjoying their products. Again, I think OP is being a bit delusional thinking that Nintendo's not going to do anything to expand the Switch's appeal. The console already has that appeal from it's concept alone, Nintendo simply needs to reinforce it. 

We'll see but it's not looking good so far that the Switch's target audience is drowning in aged sausage ... 

Concept alone hasn't done much to increase the appeal for Switch these past months, I think it's going to be content that will increase the appeal of the Switch ... 

Games such as Animal Crossing have a wide female following and Pokemon still at least has a notable younger audience but those are just band-aids for a bigger problem where the legs for Nintendo's recognizable franchises on the Switch probably won't be as good as either the Wii or DS iterations since Zelda is at already 15th place, MK8D is at 16th place and Splatoon 2 is not charting anymore in the top 20 for NPD ... 

Keep in mind, we're still early in the Switch's life. In fact, it hasn't even been a year yet, so there's still plenty of time for it to grow and evolve. Even a console like the Nintendo DS had to start somewhere.

Last edited by TheMisterManGuy - on 19 November 2017

GhaudePhaede010 said:
DonFerrari said:

Where did you got 7.5 and 4.6??? VGC have then at 11.74 and 11.21.http://www.vgchartz.com/analysis/platform_totals/Tie-Ratio/Global/

Are you in this community or not? The data is in here. But in any case. A good friend of ours keep all graphics for us. Will call him, Shadow 1980 and he will show you how much each leading console sold after peak and after next gen.

I do not use vgchartz numbers because I have never found them reliable. This site also has Wii's numbers higher than any other site I searched but we can use your numbers. I used this site's information from my google search: http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Software_tie_ratio

 

However, I will not argue the numbers you provided because you have delivered what I asked. All I asked was for proof of your claims. Even if you are correct, it is a less than two game per console difference; hardly enough to justify your position. Also, you never showed me any information that proves the console sales dropped so badly that it proved the point you were trying to make. Even by the numbers you are using, your position is unsupported.

You may put it as "just 2" but when it actually means a 20% difference it isn't that low.

And do you mind showing why this source you brought is more accurate? Do you really believe PS3 attach ratio is 4.6 and X360 is 7.5?

Guess you will also deny that PS2 sold over 1.5B SW...



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
GhaudePhaede010 said:

I do not use vgchartz numbers because I have never found them reliable. This site also has Wii's numbers higher than any other site I searched but we can use your numbers. I used this site's information from my google search: http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Software_tie_ratio

 

However, I will not argue the numbers you provided because you have delivered what I asked. All I asked was for proof of your claims. Even if you are correct, it is a less than two game per console difference; hardly enough to justify your position. Also, you never showed me any information that proves the console sales dropped so badly that it proved the point you were trying to make. Even by the numbers you are using, your position is unsupported.

You may put it as "just 2" but when it actually means a 20% difference it isn't that low.

And do you mind showing why this source you brought is more accurate? Do you really believe PS3 attach ratio is 4.6 and X360 is 7.5?

Guess you will also deny that PS2 sold over 1.5B SW...

If you're just looking at the attach rates and nothing else, then there isn't much difference between the Wii and PS3 (or even the PS2 and Gamecube) when using the official Sony and Nintendo numbers.

PS2 = (1.5B SW and 155M HW) = 9.68 attach rate

NGC = (208.57M SW and 21.74M HW) = 9.59 attach rate

PS3 from FY 2006-2011 = (595M SW and 63.9M HW) = 9.31 attach rate

Wii = (919.07M SW and 101.63M HW) = 9.04 attach rate



foxtail said:
DonFerrari said:

You may put it as "just 2" but when it actually means a 20% difference it isn't that low.

And do you mind showing why this source you brought is more accurate? Do you really believe PS3 attach ratio is 4.6 and X360 is 7.5?

Guess you will also deny that PS2 sold over 1.5B SW...

If you're just looking at the attach rates and nothing else, then there isn't much difference between the Wii and PS3 (or even the PS2 and Gamecube) when using the official Sony and Nintendo numbers.

PS2 = (1.5B SW and 155M HW) = 9.68 attach rate

NGC = (208.57M SW and 21.74M HW) = 9.59 attach rate

PS3 from FY 2006-2011 = (595M SW and 63.9M HW) = 9.31 attach rate

Wii = (919.07M SW and 101.63M HW) = 9.04 attach rate

Do you have their official data? Please give the links.

And if those are the numbers (although PS3 is outdated, and usually attach ratio grows on the end of the gen) yes they are quite close, and the info I had about Wii being under 8 is completely wrong.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."