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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Switch Is Succeeding Without Blue Ocean Casuals, Nintendo Should Not Forget This.

DonFerrari said:
Mnementh said:

As part of their core fanbase I have to agree.

But that alone isn't successful, exhibit A: WiiU

Yep, neither "pure casual" like Wii (that dropped very fast and sold few SW) nor only hardcore like WiiU can keep a healthy platform. And that is the good part for Sony that having 3rd parties it can tap all markets. Seems like Switch will be able to do it from having all Nintendo games on it instead of split userbase plus initial good support from 3rd parties.

Will you do me a favor and provide proof that Wii dropped very fast and sold few software? Because I am looking at Wii console sales and while they dropped, after the first three years the console still averaged 10 million a year; aka around current XBOX One sales. Also, the attach rate is 8.99 so unless you have some evidence that contradicts these two facts, I am going to have to call BS on your post.

 

On topic, can we get Wii's first year top sellers for comparison, please? Otherwise, this topic lacks context. Do people forget Wii had an amazing first year with titles like:

Mario Galaxy.

Metroid Prime 3.

Legend of Zelda.

Battalion Wars 2.

Mario Strikers Charged.

Super Paper Mario.

Fire Emblem.

Resident Evil 4.

Godfather.

Guilty Gear Accent Core.

NBA Live.

Dragon Ball  Z Budakai 2 and 3.

Zack and Wiki.

Naruto Clash of Ninja Revolution.

Manhunt 2.

And a lot more I do not want to post for brevity. It would be best to give us some context for year one sales or sales similar to the time frame. Thanks.



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Azuren said:
I like how Rol came here not to directly contest anything Soundwave said, but to bring attention to the fact that it was Soundwave who said it.

I don't like Soundwave anymore than the next person, but I would classify attempting to deny him an opinion on the matter because of who he is trolling (or more accurately, fascism).

Fascism is a little to harsh claim don't you think?

GhaudePhaede010 said:
DonFerrari said:

Yep, neither "pure casual" like Wii (that dropped very fast and sold few SW) nor only hardcore like WiiU can keep a healthy platform. And that is the good part for Sony that having 3rd parties it can tap all markets. Seems like Switch will be able to do it from having all Nintendo games on it instead of split userbase plus initial good support from 3rd parties.

Will you do me a favor and provide proof that Wii dropped very fast and sold few software? Because I am looking at Wii console sales and while they dropped, after the first three years the console still averaged 10 million a year; aka around current XBOX One sales. Also, the attach rate is 8.99 so unless you have some evidence that contradicts these two facts, I am going to have to call BS on your post.

 

On topic, can we get Wii's first year top sellers for comparison, please? Otherwise, this topic lacks context. Do people forget Wii had an amazing first year with titles like:

Mario Galaxy.

Metroid Prime 3.

Legend of Zelda.

Battalion Wars 2.

Mario Strikers Charged.

Super Paper Mario.

Fire Emblem.

Resident Evil 4.

Godfather.

Guilty Gear Accent Core.

NBA Live.

Dragon Ball  Z Budakai 2 and 3.

Zack and Wiki.

Naruto Clash of Ninja Revolution.

Manhunt 2.

And a lot more I do not want to post for brevity. It would be best to give us some context for year one sales or sales similar to the time frame. Thanks.

Attach ratio compared to PS3 and X360 is a lot lower, and you also have to consider that any Wii had at least a Wii Sport or similar counted on its sold SW. Even though it sold more HW than PS3 and X360 it sold less SW. And that is also not forgeting the highly squeezed sales in favor of 1st party. So when you look at the sales in total you can see a hefty difference. And I'm quite sure this number have been revised recently because it was around 7-8 last time I checked.

On the HW drop, PS1 and PS2 sold like 1/3 of their amount even after a new gen started, while Wii sold nothing after new gen and even during it's own gen it declined abruptly compared to PS1-3 and X360 (that even peaked a lot later and hold the decline better).



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:

GhaudePhaede010 said:

Will you do me a favor and provide proof that Wii dropped very fast and sold few software? Because I am looking at Wii console sales and while they dropped, after the first three years the console still averaged 10 million a year; aka around current XBOX One sales. Also, the attach rate is 8.99 so unless you have some evidence that contradicts these two facts, I am going to have to call BS on your post.

 

On topic, can we get Wii's first year top sellers for comparison, please? Otherwise, this topic lacks context. Do people forget Wii had an amazing first year with titles like:

Mario Galaxy.

Metroid Prime 3.

Legend of Zelda.

Battalion Wars 2.

Mario Strikers Charged.

Super Paper Mario.

Fire Emblem.

Resident Evil 4.

Godfather.

Guilty Gear Accent Core.

NBA Live.

Dragon Ball  Z Budakai 2 and 3.

Zack and Wiki.

Naruto Clash of Ninja Revolution.

Manhunt 2.

And a lot more I do not want to post for brevity. It would be best to give us some context for year one sales or sales similar to the time frame. Thanks.

Attach ratio compared to PS3 and X360 is a lot lower, and you also have to consider that any Wii had at least a Wii Sport or similar counted on its sold SW. Even though it sold more HW than PS3 and X360 it sold less SW. And that is also not forgeting the highly squeezed sales in favor of 1st party. So when you look at the sales in total you can see a hefty difference. And I'm quite sure this number have been revised recently because it was around 7-8 last time I checked.

On the HW drop, PS1 and PS2 sold like 1/3 of their amount even after a new gen started, while Wii sold nothing after new gen and even during it's own gen it declined abruptly compared to PS1-3 and X360 (that even peaked a lot later and hold the decline better).

I asked you to post proof. Like actual proof. Because again, I am looking at the attach rates of 360 (7.5) and PS3 (4.6) and they are lower than Wii. Even if you take Wii Sports out of the pack-in bundles, the attach rate is still 8 (Wii Sports was not bundled with every Wii and was not bundled at all in Japan). But again, if you can post proof, I will slide to the side.

Your second comment again needs proof. As I stated, Wii sold, an average of 10 million a year past its prime. Nothing to scoff at.



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I don’t think it would necessarily be a bad thing to market towards kids and casuals. But obviously it would not be smart to do that now.
At the very least, they should wait until the Nintendo Switch 2 is a thing.
By that time, the NS1 will be pretty affordable, maybe $150, half its launch price. And that’s not counting any other variations or cheaper models they introcude later down the line.
Then, they can target the teenage/adult/dedicated gamer audience with the NS2.
We already see them doing that strategy with the 3DS.



Shadow1980 said:
quickrick said:

well i apologize then. it just hard to believe how you ignore that launching during the holidays in not a real factor, with all that data i provided. 

It is a real factor, especially when comparing early-life sales. When you're dealing with 8 months of sales, not launching during the holidays is a big factor when comparing LTD sales. LTD sales comparisons are always going to be problematic when comparing any systems that launched at different times of year. I provided multiple charts explaining this in that PS4 vs. Switch thread. In the short term, LTD comparisons heavily favor holiday launches. Systems that release prior to Q4 always crater in their second month, something holiday releases never do. THIS MATTERS! A strict launch-aligned comparison gives an 8-month total of 3.6M for the PS4, but only 2.62M for the Switch. That makes the Switch look a lot worse than it is. That's why I provided a chart comparing the Switch's combined Q2+Q3 sales

But the Switch is now in its first non-launch holiday, something the PS4 hasn't had yet. A strict launch-aligned comparison for the first ten months is going to start favoring the Switch by a considerable amount. The PS4's 9th & 10th months were July & August 2014, months not really known for huge sales. The Switch will likely have sold 4.5M to 4.75M by the end of this year, a good bit more than the 3.97M the PS4 sold in its first ten months. But then we'll run back into the original problem of aligned LTD sales favoring the PS4 again come April, the Switch's 14th month. The PS4's 14th month was December 2014. The PS4 had sold over 6.7M units in the U.S. by the end of 2014. I somehow doubt that the Switch will sell over 2 million units in the Jan.-April period next year. That's some Wii-level sales there, something we shouldn't expect out of any system. We'll keep seeing that back-and-forth for the rest of the Switch's life, and while the effects become less pronounced over time, it will always be present. That's why LTD comparisons that go strictly by aligning launch months are not fair comparisons, especially very early in a console cycle. A fair comparison of the PS4 & Switch would be to align them to their first April instead, and to not really focus on LTD sales at all, but rather in monthly, quarterly, & yearly sales. I honestly don't know how much clearer I can make this point. The data spells it out, plain for all to see.

Meanwhile, the only "data" you've provided are vague references to how second holidays stack up to first holidays for systems with Q4 releases, which is a complete non-sequitur. Yes, successful systems launching in Q4 usually (but not always; PS4 sold less in holiday 2014 than in its launch holiday) see a big jump from their launch holiday to their second holiday. That has absolutely nothing to do with the issue of whether strict launch-aligned LTD comparisons of systems launching at different times of year are accurate comparisons (and, as explained, they're not). It's merely a comparison of year-over-year sales for the last two months of the year. Not exactly relevant to what I was explaining in those other posts.

If you want to continue this, let's take it back to the PS4 vs. Switch thread. Just hit "multi-quote" under this post, then go to that thread and hit "reply" under anyone's post. It'll post the quote from this thread over there.

 

Oh, and you still need to justify your claim that the Switch's October was "unimpressive," especially in the face of how other systems performed in their first October, and the fact that 3D Super Mario games are not known for being strong system-sellers. Nearly 300k in a non-holiday, non-launch month in the first year is nothing to scoff at. Few systems ever pulled numbers like that in any 4-week non-holiday month in their first year, not just October. Aside from the Switch, only the PS2, Wii, and PS4 can make that claim.

 I agree with you. In the end its better to start comparing monthly sales starting this year for switch november vs ps4 november 2014. my issue was people comparing ps4 holiday WW shipments vs switch holiday post launch. we look at all the holiday launches with very successful consoles, and holiday launches have pathetic shipments for the quarter compared to regular holidays because of stock issues. while  launches in march even with way less days, are very close to shipments of holidays launches so advantages go both ways with numbers going back in fourth.

As for october i already explained, you make it seem like it's one of the best october's ever. many people don't find the numbers impressive, considering  the context. stock fully available, for a console that had limited stock for most of the whole year, mario bundle, and the biggest mario title since mario 64. i'm not seeing why the first October's matters. a console in its first year could the biggest month ever the whole generation depending the game released.



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PAOerfulone said:
I don’t think it would necessarily be a bad thing to market towards kids and casuals. But obviously it would not be smart to do that now.
At the very least, they should wait until the Nintendo Switch 2 is a thing.
By that time, the NS1 will be pretty affordable, maybe $150, half its launch price. And that’s not counting any other variations or cheaper models they introcude later down the line.
Then, they can target the teenage/adult/dedicated gamer audience with the NS2.
We already see them doing that strategy with the 3DS.

That is late. And I don't think the expanded communities are in there because of the price. Look at sales of iPhones. I agree, that it is wise to pull in more core gamers as early adopters. But if they drop a Switch Sports in 2018 and put some ads targeted at these audiences is not an error. As ryuzaki pointed out, Just Dance 2018 did as well as the Wii version in the UK, and that is already a success. This happened without targeting the casual crowd with the Switch directly. So how much more of this audience is pulled in with a Switch Sports and some other games in the like? And as the Wii showed, these audiences then go on and buy also Mario Kart and Mario.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

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GhaudePhaede010 said:
DonFerrari said:

Attach ratio compared to PS3 and X360 is a lot lower, and you also have to consider that any Wii had at least a Wii Sport or similar counted on its sold SW. Even though it sold more HW than PS3 and X360 it sold less SW. And that is also not forgeting the highly squeezed sales in favor of 1st party. So when you look at the sales in total you can see a hefty difference. And I'm quite sure this number have been revised recently because it was around 7-8 last time I checked.

On the HW drop, PS1 and PS2 sold like 1/3 of their amount even after a new gen started, while Wii sold nothing after new gen and even during it's own gen it declined abruptly compared to PS1-3 and X360 (that even peaked a lot later and hold the decline better).

I asked you to post proof. Like actual proof. Because again, I am looking at the attach rates of 360 (7.5) and PS3 (4.6) and they are lower than Wii. Even if you take Wii Sports out of the pack-in bundles, the attach rate is still 8 (Wii Sports was not bundled with every Wii and was not bundled at all in Japan). But again, if you can post proof, I will slide to the side.

Your second comment again needs proof. As I stated, Wii sold, an average of 10 million a year past its prime. Nothing to scoff at.

Where did you got 7.5 and 4.6??? VGC have then at 11.74 and 11.21.http://www.vgchartz.com/analysis/platform_totals/Tie-Ratio/Global/

Are you in this community or not? The data is in here. But in any case. A good friend of ours keep all graphics for us. Will call him, Shadow 1980 and he will show you how much each leading console sold after peak and after next gen.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

It is a disruptive product though.

One day mobile technology will be "good enough" for everyone.

Then what will happen to the stationary consoles?

EDIT: This is textbook 'Innovator's dilemma'



I LOVE ICELAND!

KungKras said:

It is a disruptive product though.

One day mobile technology will be "good enough" for everyone.

Then what will happen to the stationary consoles?

EDIT: This is textbook 'Innovator's dilemma'

There will always be market for dedicated HW.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

The Switch IS aimed at casual gamers. This is Nintendo, what made you think they wouldn't target casual gamers? Nearly every one of their first party games is casual friendly. Nintendo is going to reinforce it's appeal to casual gamers in 2018, so don't go in thinking this is going to be some exclusive hardcore gamer club.