Shadow1980 said:
quickrick said:
well i apologize then. it just hard to believe how you ignore that launching during the holidays in not a real factor, with all that data i provided.
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It is a real factor, especially when comparing early-life sales. When you're dealing with 8 months of sales, not launching during the holidays is a big factor when comparing LTD sales. LTD sales comparisons are always going to be problematic when comparing any systems that launched at different times of year. I provided multiple charts explaining this in that PS4 vs. Switch thread. In the short term, LTD comparisons heavily favor holiday launches. Systems that release prior to Q4 always crater in their second month, something holiday releases never do. THIS MATTERS! A strict launch-aligned comparison gives an 8-month total of 3.6M for the PS4, but only 2.62M for the Switch. That makes the Switch look a lot worse than it is. That's why I provided a chart comparing the Switch's combined Q2+Q3 sales
But the Switch is now in its first non-launch holiday, something the PS4 hasn't had yet. A strict launch-aligned comparison for the first ten months is going to start favoring the Switch by a considerable amount. The PS4's 9th & 10th months were July & August 2014, months not really known for huge sales. The Switch will likely have sold 4.5M to 4.75M by the end of this year, a good bit more than the 3.97M the PS4 sold in its first ten months. But then we'll run back into the original problem of aligned LTD sales favoring the PS4 again come April, the Switch's 14th month. The PS4's 14th month was December 2014. The PS4 had sold over 6.7M units in the U.S. by the end of 2014. I somehow doubt that the Switch will sell over 2 million units in the Jan.-April period next year. That's some Wii-level sales there, something we shouldn't expect out of any system. We'll keep seeing that back-and-forth for the rest of the Switch's life, and while the effects become less pronounced over time, it will always be present. That's why LTD comparisons that go strictly by aligning launch months are not fair comparisons, especially very early in a console cycle. A fair comparison of the PS4 & Switch would be to align them to their first April instead, and to not really focus on LTD sales at all, but rather in monthly, quarterly, & yearly sales. I honestly don't know how much clearer I can make this point. The data spells it out, plain for all to see.
Meanwhile, the only "data" you've provided are vague references to how second holidays stack up to first holidays for systems with Q4 releases, which is a complete non-sequitur. Yes, successful systems launching in Q4 usually (but not always; PS4 sold less in holiday 2014 than in its launch holiday) see a big jump from their launch holiday to their second holiday. That has absolutely nothing to do with the issue of whether strict launch-aligned LTD comparisons of systems launching at different times of year are accurate comparisons (and, as explained, they're not). It's merely a comparison of year-over-year sales for the last two months of the year. Not exactly relevant to what I was explaining in those other posts.
If you want to continue this, let's take it back to the PS4 vs. Switch thread. Just hit "multi-quote" under this post, then go to that thread and hit "reply" under anyone's post. It'll post the quote from this thread over there.
Oh, and you still need to justify your claim that the Switch's October was "unimpressive," especially in the face of how other systems performed in their first October, and the fact that 3D Super Mario games are not known for being strong system-sellers. Nearly 300k in a non-holiday, non-launch month in the first year is nothing to scoff at. Few systems ever pulled numbers like that in any 4-week non-holiday month in their first year, not just October. Aside from the Switch, only the PS2, Wii, and PS4 can make that claim.
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