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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Switch Is Succeeding Without Blue Ocean Casuals, Nintendo Should Not Forget This.

AngryLittleAlchemist said:
quickrick said:

I dont think those games have anywhere near the system selling power as the titles released this year, except for pokemon, but you have one that just released this year, so that will kill THE excitement for a new title next year.  not mention all the media for mario and zelda got with a 97 metracritic, that would push most nintedo fans to buy, then you have mario kart 8, which sold a shit ton, and splatoon which in japan they seem to be going crazy for. 

This is like, what I would think if I was still 12. I'm not even trying to offend you, as someone who grew up in an average American household, I pretty much knew Mario, Zelda, Pokemon and nothing else.

Reality is a bit different. When I first found this site a few years ago I was pretty shocked to see Zelda not being a top 3 best sellers franchise for Nintendo.  The biggest Nintendo titles are more like 2D Mario, Animal Crossing, Pokemon, Smash Bros., and Mario Kart. Even Donkey Kong has seen sales close to Zelda levels quite consistently (Tropical Freeze had an abnormal drop most likely due to lack of hype). That's a big pull of software to pull from.

In general though, people are too software minded. I've heard far too many people say the Switch will drop next year because "Muh mario" and "muh Zelda". Ok? There are still tons of people who want both games and don't have a Switch, demand will not be magically met by the end of the year. While it has been brought to light to me many times that Nintendo has a history of front-loaded systems(Not that i'd know, i've only checked the N64 and Wii for confirmatio), I think the Switch has the advantage of actually being an attractive, affordable piece of hardware that will make it last for a long time. I see rises in sales, not drops.

mario odyssey, and zelda , are not just your regular series entries, there being called the greatest games of all time, along with being the highest rated games in the past 10 years, then you have mario kart, and splatoon all in one year and thats insane.  



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I think you are assuming much.

Not saying it's true or not, but i would love to see some actual statistics, as i'm very interested in knowing.



quickrick said:

mario odyssey, and zelda , are not just your regular series entries, there being called the greatest games of all time, along with being the highest rated games in the past 10 years, then you have mario kart, and splatoon all in one year and thats insane.  

Never said they were, but that doesn't change the fact that those other games are close. You probably will never see like Donkey Kong be what it used to, but those other franchises will grow in sale and selling power, same as Mario and Zelda



I am somewhat pessimistic about the switches long term performance while It has enjoyed a strong launch and first year on the market, aside from the Wii which managed so hook a wide audience even if temporarily, handheld performance has been on the decline and while their approach to try to cater to both the home and handheld market may pay off when all is said and done, I don't think we will see a repeat of the Wii, actually I believe that once the switch hits the other side of 30m we will already be seeing signs of a decline, with lifetime figures likely being below 75m perhaps far below, though right now it's too early to tell and it will be the performance over the next two years that outlines the projected course for the platform.

I think it safe to attribute much of the consoles early success to the release of breath of the wild, too, were it not for that, I don't think anywhere near as many people would have bought the platform and we would only now be seeing an uptake in adoption as a result or titles like Mario Odyssey and the titles currently on the horizon.



Do you think the casual crowd is not massively buying SMO, MK8DX, Splatoon and the likes?

If those games reach such high figures, it's because of part of the Wii audience moving to Switch after skipping the WiiU. For reference, Just Dance 2018 still sold 32% on Wii but as much as 31% on Switch at launch in the UK.



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quickrick said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

This is like, what I would think if I was still 12. I'm not even trying to offend you, as someone who grew up in an average American household, I pretty much knew Mario, Zelda, Pokemon and nothing else.

Reality is a bit different. When I first found this site a few years ago I was pretty shocked to see Zelda not being a top 3 best sellers franchise for Nintendo.  The biggest Nintendo titles are more like 2D Mario, Animal Crossing, Pokemon, Smash Bros., and Mario Kart. Even Donkey Kong has seen sales close to Zelda levels quite consistently (Tropical Freeze had an abnormal drop most likely due to lack of hype). That's a big pull of software to pull from.

In general though, people are too software minded. I've heard far too many people say the Switch will drop next year because "Muh mario" and "muh Zelda". Ok? There are still tons of people who want both games and don't have a Switch, demand will not be magically met by the end of the year. While it has been brought to light to me many times that Nintendo has a history of front-loaded systems(Not that i'd know, i've only checked the N64 and Wii for confirmatio), I think the Switch has the advantage of actually being an attractive, affordable piece of hardware that will make it last for a long time. I see rises in sales, not drops.

mario odyssey, and zelda , are not just your regular series entries, there being called the greatest games of all time, along with being the highest rated games in the past 10 years, then you have mario kart, and splatoon all in one year and thats insane.  

But let's not pretend that that's all they have left, they cannot move consoles anymore than they are able to. Zelda and Mario will be evergreen titles moving forward along with Splatoon 2 and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe. Sure, its a great year for Nintendo, but its not the end of the story once Mario and Zelda got their big guns out. Let's wait and see how IPs like Smash Bros. (which you kinda underestimate), Metroid, Animal Crossing (which has gained a significant following from females in Japan), and Pokemon (which people have already talked about in terms of its release history and sales impact), make their mark on the Switch.



ryuzaki57 said:
Do you think the casual crowd is not massively buying SMO, MK8DX, Splatoon and the likes?

If those games reach such high figures, it's because of part of the Wii audience moving to Switch after skipping the WiiU. For reference, Just Dance 2018 still sold 32% on Wii but as much as 31% on Switch at launch in the UK.

I agree with you. SMO, MK8 and Splatoon are games that are likeable for basically everyone. They are sold to the classical Nintendo-gamer (as seen in the sales on WiiU), but they are also selling to other crowds, if they already decided to go for the platform.

I also noticed what you said about the sales of Just Dance. This is probably the most success for a Just Dance outside the Wii. And the crowd that made Just Dance successful on Wii was brought in by Wii Sports, we don't have something like this on Switch yet. I think there is a lot of potential that can be tapped.



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I think there's an argument to be made that fifa and nbk both are pretty casual games....

But yeah, Nintendo seem to be doing great without the blue ocean market, but it'll be interesting to see just HOW well they'll do without the soccermoms in the end.

It's also great to see three 3rd party games cracking the top 10!



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All time top 15

1. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild
2. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
3. Splatoon 2
4. Arms
5. 1-2-Switch
6. Super Bomberman R
7. Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle

8. Ultra Street Fighter II: The Final Challengers
9. Pokken Tournament
10. LEGO City Undercover
11. Puyo Puyo Tetris

12. Disgaea 5 Complete
13. Monster Hunter Double Cross
14. Just Dance
15. FIFA 18

 

Its pretty hard to distinguish what games do and don't benefit from a casual audience. I'd say as much as 50% do appeal to that market.

Last edited by Otter - on 18 November 2017

Although I agree with your overall sentiment, I think the more casual audience are still really important to Nintendo's success. 1-2- Switch has probably made more profit than either Zelda or Mario Kart. The fact that it has sold 1m despite being no where near as enticing as wii sports and boasting a $60 price tag says something...

One of those things is that regardless of Blue ocean vs core/traditional gamers, people (even traditional gamers) clearly want to have these accessible, fun family experiences and I'm surprised that Nintendo has been pretty slow to cater to them. I actually want Switch Sports, novel motion control experiences and more mini-game collections (personally hoping for a pokemon mini collection)