I dont think those games have anywhere near the system selling power as the titles released this year, except for pokemon, but you have one that just released this year, so that will kill THE excitement for a new title next year.  not mention all the media for mario and zelda got with a 97 metracritic, that would push most nintedo fans to buy, then you have mario kart 8, which sold a shit ton, and splatoon which in japan they seem to be going crazy for. 

Animal Crossing and Smash Bros. have both proven to be capable of 10 million+ sales...3D Mario is also capable of about the same sales, Zelda has never broken 10 million, but we'll see if either can do even better this time around...my money is more on Zelda than Mario to hit new heights, but we'll see.

Still that means these other two could be decent sales engines, and Pokémon is likely in a position to be even bigger.  I'd also suggest that an ambitious 2D Mario could outsell all of the above (need a d-pad joycon, Nintendo!)

@OT: abuse of Blue Ocean and Casual terminology, booo.  I'd agree Nintendo doesn't need to shift back to the Wii/DS software approach, but I don't think it would hurt to offer that type of software, too.

Blue Ocean doesn't necessarily mean casuals. The strategy is just basically to do something different and don't worry about benchmarking against your main competitor.    The Switch is still Blue Ocean in a lot of ways.

Switch is essentially an example of games (quality and quantity) above all else contributing to sales. As long as you simply have a healthy lineup of diverse games that appeal to a relatively large audience, you'll do ok. I suppose the convenience of the Switch's portability helps as well, but it's not the key element. The whole casual thing and motion controls for Wii I've always said was a completely overblown reason as to why Wii was even successful in the first place, and Switch is proof of this.

It’s kinda hard to kill the excitement of a core Pokémon RPG game coming to an HD console with portability. An HD core Pokémon game is something fans have been wanting for years. It’s kinda up there with a localized Mother 3, FFVII Remake, Half-Life 3, etc.

Maybe, but I still think the Wii was a good system and has an important place in gaming history.

Blue ocean. Red ocean. Just keep the games coming and Nintendo will turn the ocean purple.

Why are we judging things based solely on October sales when the games you're mentioning (ARMS, 12 Switch) came out months ago?  And ARMS was not a casual game, nor was it marketed as such.

That will kill the excitement for a new Pokemon game... Like Black and White 2 killed the excitement for X and Y?  Like Heart Gold and Soul Silver killed the excitement for Black and White?  Like Yellow killed the excitement for Silver and Gold?

Pokemon games have always come out either annually or semi-annually.  And it hasn't seem to hurt them yet.  

Smash Wii U sold more than Mario 3D World.  Brawl sold more than Galaxy.  Melee sold more than Sunshine.  Animal Crossing has sold within a million of either Mario title on the 3DS.

This is like, what I would think if I was still 12. I'm not even trying to offend you, as someone who grew up in an average American household, I pretty much knew Mario, Zelda, Pokemon and nothing else.

Reality is a bit different. When I first found this site a few years ago I was pretty shocked to see Zelda not being a top 3 best sellers franchise for Nintendo.  The biggest Nintendo titles are more like 2D Mario, Animal Crossing, Pokemon, Smash Bros., and Mario Kart. Even Donkey Kong has seen sales close to Zelda levels quite consistently (Tropical Freeze had an abnormal drop most likely due to lack of hype). That's a big pull of software to pull from.

In general though, people are too software minded. I've heard far too many people say the Switch will drop next year because "Muh mario" and "muh Zelda". Ok? There are still tons of people who want both games and don't have a Switch, demand will not be magically met by the end of the year. While it has been brought to light to me many times that Nintendo has a history of front-loaded systems(Not that i'd know, i've only checked the N64 and Wii for confirmatio), I think the Switch has the advantage of actually being an attractive, affordable piece of hardware that will make it last for a long time. I see rises in sales, not drops.

It actually isn't. The DS/Wii is indeed come and gone. But if you honestly think that the Switch is NOT selling the way it has been due in SOME significant part to "casuals" who are caught up in the hype and want that "next big tech gadget", which is precisely how Switch is viewed right now, you're crazy.

Are a lot of "core" gamers buying it too? Of course. But don't think for a moment that a good chunk of its sales haven't come thanks to "Casual gamers" who didn't bother with Wii U.