Yes Zelda is 15, MK is 16 and Splatoon is outside of the top 20 but i fail to see how you can come to any conclusion about legs based on that.

Again, they are exclusives on an install base roughly 1/15 the size of PS4+XBO, Nintendo games dont include digital sales on NPD and almost every game ahead of them is a far more recent release.

As for GTA, its the best selling non-bundled retail game of all time in the US and has just about the best legs in history so using that as a metric for legs is about as dumb as it gets.

Thats why i said your post is garbage and nonsense, because you are making false conclusions based on nothing.

Hmm, judging by Amazon i'd say it's probably just outside the top 20 but considering there are lots of games released this time of year i don't see that being a problem. There is no way Splatoon won't outsell its predecessor both in Japan and the U.S. It's at 3.61m as of Sept. 30th, so after the holidays it will be way past OG Splatoon numbers, possibly at 6m.

The funny thing is im pretty sure his next response to me is going to be about how much Wii/DS were dominating back in their primes but heres some info.

In June 2005 (DS 8th month) DS only had one game in the top 20, Kirby Canvas Curse with ~80k.

In June 2007 (Wii 8th month) it was competing against PS3 & 360 which had a combined install base of ~7 million compared to Switch competing against 4 year old PS4 & XBO with a combined install base of ~37 million.

Switch hardware & software is doing great in the US and thats just a fact.

Means that their short term performance is mediocre ... (highly doubtful the outlook for the long term is any better since interest in software is almost always bound to decrease in the long term)

I don't know how you don't see Splatoon 2 getting kicked off of NPD top 20 after 3 months not a concern when that is an example of what is described as front loaded ... (even Tom Clancy games managed better legs than Splatoon 2 in NA months before the latter released) 

And correction FYI, I am comparing recently released Zelda and Mario Kart up against a 4 YEAR OLD GTA V ... (It says a lot about the "famed legs" of Nintendo IPs when it's falling behind a very old game even if it's as iconic as GTA V and it's also barely keeping with Ubisoft games) 

Yes, almost every game in the NPD's top 20 is a recent release but do you seriously expect that none of those games will have their own legs for a short while like COD: WWII, Destiny 2, Star Wars Battlefront 2, Middle-Earth Shadow of War or AC Origins until the next quarter of games arrive such as Metal Gear Survive, Far Cry 5 and God of War to take their place to circumvent Nintendo's games from rising up in the charts ? (and the quarter after that will be Red Dead Redemption 2 which will complicate things even further for Nintendo) 

It does not mean that at all.

Its not a concern because of the reasons i already listed.

Again, GTA is an anomoly, its the best selling retail game in US history and has some of the best legs ever.

A game can still have legs without being in the top 20.

Earlier you mentioned Switch games not having the legs of Wii software but thats where install base makes a huge difference.

When Wii was 8 months old it was competing against PS3/360 which had a combined ~7 million in US while Switch is going up against PS4/XBO which have a combined ~37 million in US. MASSIVE DIFFERENCE.

Are you claiming that NPD charts are biased ? If so then you may as well claim that the whole NA market is biased as well ... 

BTW, out buddy Zorg forgot that the only thing the DS had going for it in the US was SM64DS since launch to June 2005. Nintendogs was not released in the US until August of that year followed by two more re-releases and Brain Age was only released in the next year after it's initial launch in Japan ... 

I didnt forget, but comparing DS when its been out for 1.5 years and had 2 holidays to an 8 month old SW with no holiday seems like quite the stupid comparison.

I'm saying that the legs of Nintendo's 1st party won't be the same as either the Wii or DS and we can see this already since Zelda and Mario Kart is barely hanging in NPD's top 20 charts and install base is not a concern once we consider that hardware sales comes with a purchase of software too ... 

As the install base increases so do software sales up until to a certain point where the said software makes up a vanishing portion of the hardware sales ... 

Despite Switch's hardware numbers, it's older releases aren't able to keep up to the same degree anymore so even with an increased install based the attach rates decrease as well ... 

We cannot see that and yes install base is a concern

Oct 2017 (SW 8th month)

SW-2.6 million

PS4+XBO-37 million

June 2007 (Wii 8th month)

Wii-3.2 million

PS3+360-7.0 million

SW is going against consoles with over 14x the install base vs Wii going up against consoles with a little over 2x the install base.

If PS4 & XBO were only about a year old and Nintendo games included digital on NPD charts than we would be looking at a much different chart. Games like BotW & MK8D would be higher while games like Splatoon, Pokken & Mario Rabbids would likely be in the charts.

Not really because Install base didn't stop games such as SM3DL, Wii Fit, SMG, NSMB2, and MP8 (all of which released within 2 years of the systems launch) from being able reach 70% of their lifetime sales within their 18 months of sale ... (despite hardware having sold less than half the lifetime units those games only ended up adding the rest of the 30% even though lifetime hardware sales more than doubled eventually) 

Actually, chart performance is highly correlated to a games legs ... 

It's not a good sign that a game is outside of the top 20 regardless of whatever conditions and especially this early in a systems lifetime where first party games are it's lifeblood to maintaining momentum ...