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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Switch Is Succeeding Without Blue Ocean Casuals, Nintendo Should Not Forget This.

I think the "Blue Ocean" approach, er, thing that Nintendo was doing has been fully usurped by Mobile and Browser Games.

Hopefully the emphasis on indie titles continues as I see much of that "Blue Ocean" crowd is drawn to ideas present in indie games.

My girlfriend for one has become obsessed with Stardew Valley. Shes played that over 200 hours already. Last game she played before that was fricking Bingo Blitz.

It's a new broader ocean baby!



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Your idea of 'casuals' is nonsense and not equivalent to 'blue ocean' at all.

1) Casuals would be people who rarely play games at all. It is not defined by the type of game such as Wii Sports etc. I would argue that there are plenty of casuals who only buy / play games like Madden or COD. They one 1-3 games at most and only play one or two of those on a casual basis. While any core gamer would be those that buy several games and spend time almost daily on their games.

2) Blue Ocean is about finding a market that is not filled with competition. Wii did that with not only people who hadn't played games in a very long time, but also with new types of games focused on a new way to play games.

Switch has hit a new blue ocean. One where a core gamer can play high-end games anywhere. Switch appeals greatly to long-time Nintendo fans (where WiiU even failed) with high-quality software and to those gamers who also want to play FIFA on the go. The bonus is the normally portable gamers who get the best possible (to-date) console with portability ever.

I think what your data shows is that the smaller party-game style of gameplay is no longer popular. At least not in a $300+ console with a control-scheme that is "too complicated" for the crowd that was pulled back into gaming with the Wii. Let's call them the "retired gamer crowd".



I hope Nintendo is really getting back to a gamer focus, instead of the casual focus they had for 10 years.



DonFerrari said:
GhaudePhaede010 said:

I do not use vgchartz numbers because I have never found them reliable. This site also has Wii's numbers higher than any other site I searched but we can use your numbers. I used this site's information from my google search: http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Software_tie_ratio

 

However, I will not argue the numbers you provided because you have delivered what I asked. All I asked was for proof of your claims. Even if you are correct, it is a less than two game per console difference; hardly enough to justify your position. Also, you never showed me any information that proves the console sales dropped so badly that it proved the point you were trying to make. Even by the numbers you are using, your position is unsupported.

You may put it as "just 2" but when it actually means a 20% difference it isn't that low.

And do you mind showing why this source you brought is more accurate? Do you really believe PS3 attach ratio is 4.6 and X360 is 7.5?

Guess you will also deny that PS2 sold over 1.5B SW...

I am not saying this source is more accurate. You asked me where I got my information and since you provided a source, I felt it was correct of me to show you that I was not making my numbers up as well. As I said, I am not going to argue your numbers because you provided what I asked and I am a fair man about things.

As far as my opinion on attach rates, I do not have one. I just used the information I Googled and left it at that. At no point did I imply my numbers were superior; as a matter of fact, since the beginning I have said if you provided information that I would back off. And I did.

Lastly, why would I deny PS2 numbers? I have never Googled them and I have no information about that console.



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Wyrdness said:
DonFerrari said:

Such a great trade off that like 1/3 of gaming HW or more are still PCs...

You are the one doing a strawman argument because to you it seems like the only possible outcome that hybrid becomes the norm and other forms of dedicate consoles cease to exist. Are you on the bandwagon that assumed PS4/X1 wouldn't have physical drive?

No I'm saying what he said is plausible as if the tech became viable it could replace platforms with a trade off that doesn't bother people and to top it off if the tech matched platforms blow for blow with good trade off like he theorised the would be no reason why it wouldn't, you're throwing out strawman arguments you haven't really countered this and wtf are you on about physical drives.

1/3 of gaming is on PCs compared to eras gone were home computers were on even footing or when the crash happened they were the only port of call for gaming PC gaming fortunately has quirks specific to it as well as genres more suited to it in the case of what the other user said from what I've assume a scenario of tech catching up with decent trade off could lead to hybrid form factors being adopted by other companies as well much like touch screens really taking off for mobile and portable devices after the DS.

You weren't saying it was plausible, you were more on that was the expected outcome. But please entretain us on how the price would basically be the same perfomance too on a hybrid or table console.

PC gaming is actually growing instead of dying off. So even though it may have dropped hard it wasn't and isn't being replaced.

GhaudePhaede010 said:
DonFerrari said:

You may put it as "just 2" but when it actually means a 20% difference it isn't that low.

And do you mind showing why this source you brought is more accurate? Do you really believe PS3 attach ratio is 4.6 and X360 is 7.5?

Guess you will also deny that PS2 sold over 1.5B SW...

I am not saying this source is more accurate. You asked me where I got my information and since you provided a source, I felt it was correct of me to show you that I was not making my numbers up as well. As I said, I am not going to argue your numbers because you provided what I asked and I am a fair man about things.

As far as my opinion on attach rates, I do not have one. I just used the information I Googled and left it at that. At no point did I imply my numbers were superior; as a matter of fact, since the beginning I have said if you provided information that I would back off. And I did.

Lastly, why would I deny PS2 numbers? I have never Googled them and I have no information about that console.

Sorry, my miss interpretation. Thanks for the source.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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superchunk said:
Your idea of 'casuals' is nonsense and not equivalent to 'blue ocean' at all.

1) Casuals would be people who rarely play games at all. It is not defined by the type of game such as Wii Sports etc. I would argue that there are plenty of casuals who only buy / play games like Madden or COD. They one 1-3 games at most and only play one or two of those on a casual basis. While any core gamer would be those that buy several games and spend time almost daily on their games.

2) Blue Ocean is about finding a market that is not filled with competition. Wii did that with not only people who hadn't played games in a very long time, but also with new types of games focused on a new way to play games.

Switch has hit a new blue ocean. One where a core gamer can play high-end games anywhere. Switch appeals greatly to long-time Nintendo fans (where WiiU even failed) with high-quality software and to those gamers who also want to play FIFA on the go. The bonus is the normally portable gamers who get the best possible (to-date) console with portability ever.

I think what your data shows is that the smaller party-game style of gameplay is no longer popular. At least not in a $300+ console with a control-scheme that is "too complicated" for the crowd that was pulled back into gaming with the Wii. Let's call them the "retired gamer crowd".

I don't see how the Switch is not casual friendly. The fact that it comes with two, self-contained Wii Remote-esque controllers for multiplayer that can be used anywhere screams casual friendly alone. Not only that, but Nintendo launched the Switch with a face-to-face party game, and a co-op puzzler where players cut each-other into shapes. Next year, they're rolling out with new Kirby and Yoshi games, two of their most causal friendly IP in their roster. Not to mention, the Switch was the #1 platform for Just Dance 2018 (I know it's Ubisoft, but still). 

It's true the Switch has appeal to core gamers as well, but let's not pretend it wasn't designed with casual gamers in mind. 



zorg1000 said:

Multiplatform games on install bases of ~37 million (PS4+XBO in US) sell better than exclusive games on an install base of ~2.6 million? Who would have thought?

That's just an excuse ... (3 of Switch's biggest blockbusters aren't even keeping up with the current hardware sales attach rates anymore) 

If people are going to liken the similarities between the Switch and Wii/DS then a meaningful comparison of the legs of each library should be compared as well ... 

All of Nintendo's games released so far on the Switch are on track sell 70% of it's lifetime units within the given 18 month window if NPD rankings are to be believed ... (3 of which are currently getting beaten by a 4 year old GTA V as we speak so you can already tell that Switch's games aren't going to match the legs of either Wii/DS counterparts if their short term performance isn't good) 



DonFerrari said:
foxtail said:

If you're just looking at the attach rates and nothing else, then there isn't much difference between the Wii and PS3 (or even the PS2 and Gamecube) when using the official Sony and Nintendo numbers.

PS2 = (1.5B SW and 155M HW) = 9.68 attach rate

NGC = (208.57M SW and 21.74M HW) = 9.59 attach rate

PS3 from FY 2006-2011 = (595M SW and 63.9M HW) = 9.31 attach rate

Wii = (919.07M SW and 101.63M HW) = 9.04 attach rate

Do you have their official data? Please give the links.

And if those are the numbers (although PS3 is outdated, and usually attach ratio grows on the end of the gen) yes they are quite close, and the info I had about Wii being under 8 is completely wrong.

For the PS2 I think there was an announcement for 1.5B SW and over 150M HW, but I can't find the link anymore..  Sources for HW numbers are inconsistent (even from Sony), with one source saying one number, while another Sony source will say a different number for the same time period.  So the 155M HW is a guesstimate and not official, but it should be in that ballpark.   

For the PS3 SW the link is here. - http://scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdataps3soft_sale_e.html

For the PS3 HW the link is here. - http://scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdataps3_sale_e.html

The links have been erased by Sony so you have to use "Web Archive" to access them.

The Nintendo numbers are given here. - https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/

If the PS3 HW decreased at a faster rate than the PS3 SW decrease, than the attach rate may be higher in the end.

But we would still need solid numbers to know for sure either way and these official numbers give us a good idea of the PS3 attach rate in its prime.

Last edited by foxtail - on 20 November 2017

DonFerrari said:

You weren't saying it was plausible, you were more on that was the expected outcome. But please entretain us on how the price would basically be the same perfomance too on a hybrid or table console.

PC gaming is actually growing instead of dying off. So even though it may have dropped hard it wasn't and isn't being replaced.

 

No anyone who can read can discern I was saying it's plausible.

"I agree with what he said in that in future its possible all platforms used the hybrid form factor."

Unless you don't understand the word possible don't make up untrue replies, want to know how the price can be be lowered look up progression in tech and how fast it's happening we have a portable device now that's playing HD games of the likes of Skyrim and respectable ports from the likes of the PS4 and X1 something which a generation ago was not even seen as possible. The Switch doesn't even use the latest Tegra based tech and architecture either.

As new tech comes along old tech becomes cheaper because and faster progression makes this happens at a more rapid rate this is one reason PC gaming is doing as well as it is because mid to higher end PCs can be built for much cheaper then what they could have been years ago.



I don't think going after so-called "casual gamers" is a bad thing. So long as Nintendo doesn't alienate its current userbase. I don't see why, in any given year, Nintendo can't release games for both "sets" of gamers. I think a wii sports type title could only be a good thing if it brought in new consumers. (Even though i don't think Wii Sports was necessarily a "Casual" title, it was for everyone.)



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