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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Switch Is Succeeding Without Blue Ocean Casuals, Nintendo Should Not Forget This.

DonFerrari said:
killeryoshis said:

I think he is talking about hybrid consoles replacing stationary consoles. 

Yes he was, or cellphones replacing all...

Yet, a lot of us would be happier with a better and cheaper option still plugged to our tv.

A lot of people doesn't stop a change from happening once a viable concept and good execution comes along the mobile phone itself is a prime example many dismissed it yet it took off and how now replaced a tonne of devices from walkmans, mps players, cameras etc...

Consoles themselves are now starting to emulate PCs gradually removing the initial point of them being simple devices for gaming. I agree with what he said in that in future its possible all platforms used the hybrid form factor.



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fatslob-:O said:
TheMisterManGuy said:

Which is why I think Nintendo has a plan for that going into 2018. They know the young adult male audience is satisfied. Their next priority should be to transition the kids still on the 3DS to the Switch, and try to get women and older people interested in the Switch as well.  Nintendo's never happy with pleasing just an isolated niche, they want everyone enjoying their products. Again, I think OP is being a bit delusional thinking that Nintendo's not going to do anything to expand the Switch's appeal. The console already has that appeal from it's concept alone, Nintendo simply needs to reinforce it. 

We'll see but it's not looking good so far that the Switch's target audience is drowning in aged sausage ... 

Concept alone hasn't done much to increase the appeal for Switch these past months, I think it's going to be content that will increase the appeal of the Switch ... 

Games such as Animal Crossing have a wide female following and Pokemon still at least has a notable younger audience but those are just band-aids for a bigger problem where the legs for Nintendo's recognizable franchises on the Switch probably won't be as good as either the Wii or DS iterations since Zelda is at already 15th place, MK8D is at 16th place and Splatoon 2 is not charting anymore in the top 20 for NPD ... 

Multiplatform games on install bases of ~37 million (PS4+XBO in US) sell better than exclusive games on an install base of ~2.6 million? Who would have thought?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Wyrdness said:
DonFerrari said:

Yes he was, or cellphones replacing all...

Yet, a lot of us would be happier with a better and cheaper option still plugged to our tv.

A lot of people doesn't stop a change from happening once a viable concept and good execution comes along the mobile phone itself is a prime example many dismissed it yet it took off and how now replaced a tonne of devices from walkmans, mps players, cameras etc...

Consoles themselves are now starting to emulate PCs gradually removing the initial point of them being simple devices for gaming. I agree with what he said in that in future its possible all platforms used the hybrid form factor.

And still the market for professional cameras and even semi-pro still exist and a lot of people keep buying it. So there is a difference between a market becoming bigger than another and something being replaced.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
Wyrdness said:

A lot of people doesn't stop a change from happening once a viable concept and good execution comes along the mobile phone itself is a prime example many dismissed it yet it took off and how now replaced a tonne of devices from walkmans, mps players, cameras etc...

Consoles themselves are now starting to emulate PCs gradually removing the initial point of them being simple devices for gaming. I agree with what he said in that in future its possible all platforms used the hybrid form factor.

And still the market for professional cameras and even semi-pro still exist and a lot of people keep buying it. So there is a difference between a market becoming bigger than another and something being replaced.

Comparing pro photographers to the majority of consumers is like saying the people who buy the PS4p and Scorpio will still keep the industry a float, gaming platforms however cannot survive that with the AAA culture of the industry as that's a tiny group. Pro cameras are purchased by companies and such gaming platforms however don't have that safety net.



Shadow1980 said:
GhaudePhaede010 said:

Will you do me a favor and provide proof that Wii dropped very fast and sold few software? Because I am looking at Wii console sales and while they dropped, after the first three years the console still averaged 10 million a year; aka around current XBOX One sales. Also, the attach rate is 8.99 so unless you have some evidence that contradicts these two facts, I am going to have to call BS on your post.

GhaudePhaede010 said:

Your second comment again needs proof. As I stated, Wii sold, an average of 10 million a year past its prime. Nothing to scoff at.

Regarding hardware sales, here is the proof you seek:

Just two years after its peak, global Wii shipments had declined by 42%. FY2011-12 shipments were 62% lower than they were at its peak. This is a fast decline. The rapid decline is obvious is all regions:

Comparing the Wii to the most popular system from the prior generation, it started off much better than the PS2 did in the U.S. Both systems peaked in their second full calendar year, but overall the Wii declined much faster. In 2011, the Wii sold 55.4% fewer units than it did in 2008, whereas in 2005, the PS2 sold only 35.6% fewer units than it did in 2002. Overall, the Wii sold over nearly 65% of its lifetime sales by the end of its third full calendar year, and 90% of its lifetime total by the end of its fifth year. For the PS2, those numbers were only 48% and 70%.

The Wii started off stronger, but it simply didn't have the legs the PS2 did. From their fifth full calendar year to when NPD stopped tracking sales, the PS2 sold over twice as many units as the Wii did. As a consequence the Wii failed to surpass the PS2's lifetime total, even though by time the Wii U came out it was still running surplus over the PS2 (though that surplus was already rapidly shrinking).


In Japan the Wii was even more front-loaded.

By 2009 sales had declined to nearly half of what they were in 2007, and they declined by half yet again by 2011. In fact, in 2011 the Wii was being outsold by the PS3, which, despite peaking in 2009, had a much slower decline. While the PS3 did fail to surpass the Wii, it narrowed its LTD deficit by a significant amount. It was running a deficit of over 5 million in 2010, but that deficit has shrunk to less than 2.3 million thanks to that long tail.

This is normal for Nintendo systems. Ever since the N64, Nintendo consoles have had weak legs. They also tend to peak early, being far more front-loaded than PlayStation & Xbox systems. This isn't really a strike against Nintendo. It's simply a necessary consequence of being systems that rely almost entirely on first-party support, support that typically evaporates quite quickly once the system has gotten replaced (and usually starts to slow down even before that as Nintendo starts to shift development priorities for games for the next system's first year). By time it gets to its fourth or fifth full year, every Nintendo home console since the N64 has experienced significant decline from its peak, which has always been no later than its second full calendar year.


I expect the Switch to exhibit similar behavior, peaking relatively early compared to the PS4 & XBO and declining far more rapidly. It should sell very well through 2020, better than the PS4 did in its first several years, but I expect it to start dropping rapidly after that, ultimately falling well short of the PS4. Assuming a peak in 2019, its sales in 2021 should be 40-50% lower than what they were in peak year.

Thanks for the data, you are the man.

Wyrdness said:
DonFerrari said:

And still the market for professional cameras and even semi-pro still exist and a lot of people keep buying it. So there is a difference between a market becoming bigger than another and something being replaced.

Comparing pro photographers to the majority of consumers is like saying the people who buy the PS4p and Scorpio will still keep the industry a float, gaming platforms however cannot survive that with the AAA culture of the industry as that's a tiny group. Pro cameras are purchased by companies and such gaming platforms however don't have that safety net.

And where did I say the people that want a dedicated table console are going to be as niche as people that buy pro camera (not only pros buy semi and pro level cameras and lenses)?? All I said is that even if a good portion (that is your and the other guy assumption) of gamers get satisfied with a HH console that doesn't mean it attends all (see the original comment on this) nor that there wouldn't exist a market for table consoles... Consoles more or less would satisfy the gaming need of most people and still PC market still exist.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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DonFerrari said:

 

And where did I say the people that want a dedicated table console are going to be as niche as people that buy pro camera (not only pros buy semi and pro level cameras and lenses)?? All I said is that even if a good portion (that is your and the other guy assumption) of gamers get satisfied with a HH console that doesn't mean it attends all (see the original comment on this) nor that there wouldn't exist a market for table consoles... Consoles more or less would satisfy the gaming need of most people and still PC market still exist.

You're trying to counter the argument by bringing up pro cameras, pro cameras at best in your argument are equivalent to cameras as PC gaming is to gaming it doesn't really back your point as the consoles are being compared to the non pro consumer industry which is a fraction of what it used to be because a new well executed concept has replaced it.

A Hybrid can attend to all, the original user comes across as saying the form factor of the Switch could become the norm for all non PC platforms when tech begins to catch up and becomes viable and tbh he's right the's nothing a Hybrid platform wouldn't be able to do should tech catch up and become viable.



Wyrdness said:
DonFerrari said:

 

And where did I say the people that want a dedicated table console are going to be as niche as people that buy pro camera (not only pros buy semi and pro level cameras and lenses)?? All I said is that even if a good portion (that is your and the other guy assumption) of gamers get satisfied with a HH console that doesn't mean it attends all (see the original comment on this) nor that there wouldn't exist a market for table consoles... Consoles more or less would satisfy the gaming need of most people and still PC market still exist.

You're trying to counter the argument by bringing up pro cameras, pro cameras at best in your argument are equivalent to cameras as PC gaming is to gaming it doesn't really back your point as the consoles are being compared to the non pro consumer industry which is a fraction of what it used to be because a new well executed concept has replaced it.

A Hybrid can attend to all, the original user comes across as saying the form factor of the Switch could become the norm for all non PC platforms when tech begins to catch up and becomes viable and tbh he's right the's nothing a Hybrid platform wouldn't be able to do should tech catch up and become viable.

Are we in a world where displays and batteries have negative cost? Or in a world where making the chip smaller make it more powerfull as consequence? Nope, so there will always be a trade-off. And assuming that because you like the Switch concept it will automatically means it will take over the market is just like saying cellphone game will kill traditional consoles because you like candy crush.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:

Are we in a world where displays and batteries have negative cost? Or in a world where making the chip smaller make it more powerfull as consequence? Nope, so there will always be a trade-off. And assuming that because you like the Switch concept it will automatically means it will take over the market is just like saying cellphone game will kill traditional consoles because you like candy crush.

What a strawman response you've got there as no one is talking about liking a concept we're talking about how well executed it is and the applications and the latter support his view hybrids can replace platforms in future. The are always trade offs but then the is progression and with progression the trade offs can become far less of an issue after all aren't many people playing on consoles instead of PCs despite trade offs? Why because the former does a good job in offering what the latter does.



Wyrdness said:
DonFerrari said:

Are we in a world where displays and batteries have negative cost? Or in a world where making the chip smaller make it more powerfull as consequence? Nope, so there will always be a trade-off. And assuming that because you like the Switch concept it will automatically means it will take over the market is just like saying cellphone game will kill traditional consoles because you like candy crush.

What a strawman response you've got there as no one is talking about liking a concept we're talking about how well executed it is and the applications and the latter support his view hybrids can replace platforms in future. The are always trade offs but then the is progression and with progression the trade offs can become far less of an issue after all aren't many people playing on consoles instead of PCs despite trade offs? Why because the former does a good job in offering what the latter does.

Such a great trade off that like 1/3 of gaming HW or more are still PCs...

You are the one doing a strawman argument because to you it seems like the only possible outcome that hybrid becomes the norm and other forms of dedicate consoles cease to exist. Are you on the bandwagon that assumed PS4/X1 wouldn't have physical drive?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:

Such a great trade off that like 1/3 of gaming HW or more are still PCs...

You are the one doing a strawman argument because to you it seems like the only possible outcome that hybrid becomes the norm and other forms of dedicate consoles cease to exist. Are you on the bandwagon that assumed PS4/X1 wouldn't have physical drive?

No I'm saying what he said is plausible as if the tech became viable it could replace platforms with a trade off that doesn't bother people and to top it off if the tech matched platforms blow for blow with good trade off like he theorised the would be no reason why it wouldn't, you're throwing out strawman arguments you haven't really countered this and wtf are you on about physical drives.

1/3 of gaming is on PCs compared to eras gone were home computers were on even footing or when the crash happened they were the only port of call for gaming PC gaming fortunately has quirks specific to it as well as genres more suited to it in the case of what the other user said from what I've assume a scenario of tech catching up with decent trade off could lead to hybrid form factors being adopted by other companies as well much like touch screens really taking off for mobile and portable devices after the DS.