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Forums - Sales Discussion - Official Software Adjustments Thread

Machina said:
XD84 said:

Did you also made an adjustment of some other Switch games? For instance 1-2-Switch was last week around 30000 units short of being over a million. According to the weekly global charts it did less than 35000 units. Now it is standing at 1025000 units. Did it got an adjustment of around 20000 or is there a mistake?

Also Symbio63 mentioned in his last post of his thread that something seem to be odd about the numbers of Switch games:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=231643&page=2

Yes the changes made to the extrapolations for European countries we don't directly track will have impacted all Switch software and it looks like they've now all shown up on the main site :)

That's why you guys are seeing LTD increases that are out of line with the weekly increase.

 

It's been clear to me for a while that all major Switch software (other than Zelda, which I've been happy with) was being undertracked, I just needed some indicator as to which specific country(ies) were the ones that needed increasing and by how much. The Super Mario Odyssey launch allowed me to recommend an extrapolation change for 'other Europe' to Brett when those figures came in (he'd previously been resistant to the idea but this finally convinced him).

I suspect there's an undertrack in other markets we don't directly track as well, but that's just a hunch - nothing I can act on unless some reliable data is published elsewhere that can support either the idea that those markets have greater market share for Switch than we assumed or, for example, Nintendo revealing worldwide digital attach rates for certain titles, which would give is a great idea of how close our estimates are to the actual retail sell-through.

Thank you for your explanation and all your effort!



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Keep up thr good work Machina!



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Great thread, will definitely follow your work Machina!

Tagging



Thanks machina.



Machina said:
XD84 said:

Did you also made an adjustment of some other Switch games? For instance 1-2-Switch was last week around 30000 units short of being over a million. According to the weekly global charts it did less than 35000 units. Now it is standing at 1025000 units. Did it got an adjustment of around 20000 or is there a mistake?

Also Symbio63 mentioned in his last post of his thread that something seem to be odd about the numbers of Switch games:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=231643&page=2

Yes the changes made to the extrapolations for European countries we don't directly track will have impacted all Switch software and it looks like they've now all shown up on the main site :)

That's why you guys are seeing LTD increases that are out of line with the weekly increase.

 

It's been clear to me for a while that all major Switch software (other than Zelda, which I've been happy with) was being undertracked, I just needed some indicator as to which specific country(ies) were the ones that needed increasing and by how much. The Super Mario Odyssey launch allowed me to recommend an extrapolation change for 'other Europe' to Brett when those figures came in (he'd previously been resistant to the idea but this finally convinced him).

I suspect there's an undertrack in other markets we don't directly track as well, but that's just a hunch - nothing I can act on unless some reliable data is published elsewhere that can support either the idea that those markets have greater market share for Switch than we assumed or, for example, Nintendo revealing worldwide digital attach rates for certain titles, which would give is a great idea of how close our estimates are to the actual retail sell-through.

So for a lot of Switch software you're basically waiting for official sold through numbers as a reference point to adjust tracking?

I initially came here to see if you were planning on adjusting any Switch numbers since Splatoon 2 seems very undertracked, but (after reading OP and) seeing the mammoth project you have on hand here I can only give cudos to you.

Thanks for your hard work!



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I'm not sure if this is the right place to post this but, according to the official Nintendo website, the Wii U software numbers aren't up to date.  The numbers are this site are quite a bit lower. https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/wiiu.html



Poweranimals said:

I'm not sure if this is the right place to post this but, according to the official Nintendo website, the Wii U software numbers aren't up to date.  The numbers are this site are quite a bit lower. https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/wiiu.html

That’s because Nintendo has not released their Q4 financial earnings yet lol

Last edited by Redguy - on 13 January 2018

Machina said:
SuperNova said:

So for a lot of Switch software you're basically waiting for official sold through numbers as a reference point to adjust tracking?

I initially came here to see if you were planning on adjusting any Switch numbers since Splatoon 2 seems very undertracked, but (after reading OP and) seeing the mammoth project you have on hand here I can only give cudos to you.

Thanks for your hard work!

The problem is that doesn't help me identify which specific countries/regions are undertracked, so while we can be pretty sure xxxxx game is undertracked overall, the question I then need to ask in order to make an adjustment is in which countries or regions and by how much? I can't just add phantom numbers to the overall to make up the numbers, I need some solid evidence of where I should be increasing the figures, and that will then filter into the overall figure.

Taking the specific example of Splatoon 2 however, I haven't gotten to it in my list of titles to adjust in the US yet, so there may be an increase pending there. In terms of Japan we're slightly over compared to MC and Famitsu but within the margin of error; the UK and Germany is spot on; and France is maybe a touch under, though I'll obviously need to wait until all of our figures are up for 2017 before I can check against the recently revealed figures there. The rest of Europe is also slightly under and will be adjusted up if/when I make changes in France.

That covers the major markets but as you can see it won't really amount to a huge increase. Unfortunately we don't do any tracking in the RoW, and data is hard to find for it, so either the game has a surprisingly high digital attach rate or Switch is doing better than expect in the RoW, in which case the solution is an adjustment to our extrapolation for it, but like I said in the previous post I need some evidence for that before I'd be able to make a successful case for changing the calculations to Brett.

 

@Poweranimals - Keep in mind the Nintendo figures include digital. But yes, some of them are undertracked (and iirc from when I last checked, one or two are also overtracked). They'll be adjusted as and when I get to them, while I'm going through each region making changes.

Thanks for the in-deph explanation! Obviously you can't just add sales willy-nilly, but it must be a touch frustrating to see a big discrepancy in tracking and not be able to adjust accordingly because you don't know where the sales went. I imagine it would help a lot if you found a way to reliably track digital.

As for Splatoon 2, the gap looks huge at first, leading to my impression that it must be undertracked, but it might not need big adjustments if it does have a high digital ratio.



Machina said:
SuperNova said:

Thanks for the in-deph explanation! Obviously you can't just add sales willy-nilly, but it must be a touch frustrating to see a big discrepancy in tracking and not be able to adjust accordingly because you don't know where the sales went. I imagine it would help a lot if you found a way to reliably track digital.

As for Splatoon 2, the gap looks huge at first, leading to my impression that it must be undertracked, but it might not need big adjustments if it does have a high digital ratio.

It definitely is! The ever increasing digital share makes matters worse because, like you say, this can make games that are probably only slightly undertracked look absolutely massively undertracked, and games that are being tracked fine to look undertracked too. 

If it were possible for us to track digital sales that'd be awesome, but I think it unlikely. A more realistic possibility (well, actuality; it's on the pending 'new features' list) is having a section on game pages in the database which will detail official shipment data, and we'll allow regular users to submit that info to the database, effectively crowdsourcing and covering much more ground than I alone can.

That sounds like an awesome improvemt to the site! It might also help us users to better gauge if we should pester you with an adjustment request or not (down the line when you've gotten your pile of adjustments out of the way), because we would be able to see if the data has already been added or not.

Would you consider putting a category for officially confirmed digital sales/ratios in there?



Thank you for your hard work. It is great to know that software sales can now be adjusted when official numbers come in.

I have been doing this thread (http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=231643) for a while and I have noticed few things from last time I posted here :

- There are three switch games (- Lumo, -Let's Sing 2018, - Nobunaga no Yabo : Taishi) that can be found in the overall ranking list (as switch games) with numbers but do not appear in the switch best selling list. (http://www.vgchartz.com/platform/83/nintendo-switch/)

- There are two switch games (-Dynasty Warriors 8, - Samurai Warriors : Spirit of Sanada) that appear in the switch best selling list as 3DS games (- Miracle Tunes! Game de Tune Up! Tabun!, -Cake-ya San Monogatari: Ooishii Sweets o Tsukurou!). If you look for the two switch games in the database, you will find them but I don't know if the associated sales are for the switch or the 3ds games... Does it make sense ?

- And finally, here are the released games for which we have no numbers (some are in the database with the right release date, some are not in the database at all). - Syberia 2 (01/12/17 EU), - Aqua Moto Racing Utopia (24/11/17 EU), -Snow Moto Racing Freedom (24/11/17 EU), -Super Putty Squad (01/12/17 EU), - Retro City Rampage DX (19/10/17 NA), - Romance of the Three Kingdoms XIII (03/03/17 JP).

If you look at my previous post in your thread (December 14), you will notice we had somewhat similar problems for other games earlier. Those are gone. If someone did fix it I say thank you, if not, that would mean the problem did sort itself somehow with time and this could be the case again for the games I mentionned in the present post.

Keep up the good work !