We need more adverts that show the general versatility and community play potential of the Switch playing throughout the holidays. Similar to the reveal and e3 trailors. Consumers will eat those up. This is if it hopes to gain more media attention and reach Wii level sales without a killer social IP.

I wouldnt get too worried about their 1st party support for next year, remember at this time last year we only knew about Zelda.

So far we know of Kirby, Yoshi & Fire Emblem as 1st party titles coming next year.

We have a recent leak/rumor that Game Freak is trying hard to get Pokemon out next year and that Animal Crossing is being planned for next year as well.

After the success of Mario Kart Deluxe, i would be very surprised if we dont get a Smash Bros Deluxe or Mario Maker Deluxe.

This year had Zelda, Mario Kart, Splatoon & 3D Mario as the heavy hitters with a handful of medium sized titles like ARMS, Pokken, Xenoblade, etc. mixed in between. Next year could look something like

Q1-Kirby+Smash Deluxe

Q2-Animal Crossing+Yoshi

Q3-Fire Emblem+Mario Maker Deluxe

Q4-Pokemon+Metroid Prime

Thats just an example, i dont expect it to look exactly like that but you get the point, there is no reason to be worried about Nintendo's 1st party lineup next year.

The thing is PS4 sold better than PS3 (so far) and XB1 is just a bit behind X360 numbers (though it has fallen off this year, it seems likely that the XBX will fuel a strong Q4 and bring it back in line).   Certainly handhelds are in a tough space, as mobile gaming has taken hold.  But, I don't see any evidence that home console sales are in bad shape, or even declining significantly industry-wide.  

You JUST realized this? You didn't realize this when the Switch was announced a year ago??!

Personally I think yes Switch will sell at least 80 million. Though I already consider it a success now. It's a fantastic system (really the perfect system if I were to come up with the design for a perfect system the Switch is it - outside of the still crappy Nintendo online gaming setup), with great games, selling loads, and a bright future.

Or 3 years ago when Iwata basically flat out said they were heading in this direction.

For my two cents, everyone keeps on blaming mobile for poor sales of handhelds, but if mobile is the wave of the future, could it be even worse for home consoles?  Will the tablet-loving kid of today buy a TV set at all?

Personally, I think weak economics and big miss-steps also play a factor in 3DS sales, at least.  The 3DS launch year was awful, I sold my launch system that Christmas to try to get some of my money back, with nothing but Street Fighter IV to show for like 7 months of ownership.  I don't think 3DS ever fully recovered, which is reflected in mediocre third party support.  Meanwhile, the past decade has not been an easy time economically - DS and PSP faced that starting in 2008, but they also had a couple of years worry-free on the market first.

As for Vita, I'd be happy to hear someone more informed explain what went right or wrong for that system.  If Switch's success is predicated on "powerful handheld", then why didn't Vita do better?

Wii U sales are still terrible, so BotW isn't anymore a killer app for it than any other game, because no game can save the Wii U. That's what Nintendo's software failing to move a significant amount of Wii U consoles shows, that the Wii U is just that unsalvageable. Not that Nintendo games bar Zelda don't move systems, that just silly when most every other Nintendo system shows otherwise. So the problem is the Wii U, not the games, well besides the lack of them and their infrequent releases of course. Your claim is especially odd when almost all of Wii U's ltd hardware sales were accumulated before BotW Wii U even released, and there are half a dozen Wii U games that have sold more than it.

Also my argument doesn't apply to the Wii U at all, as it didn't have a great hardware concept, great marketing, and a consistent stream of games with more always on the pipeline. The Wii U certainly did not get a game almost every month (delays every month maybe) while the Switch has so far, and the Wii U didn't get mainline Kirby, Pokemon, Fire Emblem, or Metroid, whereas all of those have already been announced for Switch.

I mean really, how can a game selling as well as MK8D, Splat2, and SMO not be a significant factor towards Switch's success? They're all outpacing their Wii U counterparts, and heck MK8D has almost surpassed BotW Switch. There's simply no way the Switch would be doing as well as it is without these frequent releases. I bet the BotW n launch hype (which would be lesser to begin with) would've well died out by now, just like what happened to the Wii U. It's thanks to the consistent stream that momentum is maintained. 

Nintendo's combined software output is going to give it DS-like sales. Mark my words.

Well mobile did affect handhelds, the super casual crowd who were buying DS for games like Nintendogs, Brain Age/Big Brain Academy, Cooking Mama, Personal Trainer series, etc. have likely moved onto smartphones along with alot of parents probably choosing the device with free games for their young kids.

As for Vita, back in 2005-2008 PSP was THE all-in-one portable multimedia device being able to play games, watch movies, listen to music and surf the web. By the time Vita released in 2011/2012, smartphones & tablets had taken that place.

With that said, mobile was not the only cause of 3DS/Vita decline from DS/PSP. Nintendo & Sony themselves made a bunch of mistakes that led to their decline.

A steady stream of good software certainly doesn't hurt, but a killer app moves hardware much more than pacing does.  Pacing actually helps more in keeping people on the console they already own.  People used to joke that they would put the Wii in their closet and never get it out.  That's what happens when there is a pacing problem.  Gamers get tired of their console and start looking for a new one.

All of those games listed above are worth a $60 price tag, but they may not be worth a $360 price tag.  That is why a killer app is needed, a game so good that customers will want to lay down the full $360.  Mario Kart, 3D Mario, and Splatoon were all available on one console starting May 2015 (along with several other good games), but that was still not enough to get most people to buy.  Take Zelda out of the equation and the Wii U's library is better May 2015 than the Switch's library is now.  So why is the Switch in so much higher demand?  It must be Zelda.