I don't see any reason for Nintendo to split up their userbase going forward. Switch should be the focus for many years to come. Best thing to do going forward is build out the ecosystem. I would love to see a Switch Phone and a Switch Pro/Switch 2 by 2019 or early 2020. Right now the current Switch is perfect for playing games while I have a TV Show or Sporting event running on the PS4. A Switch Phone would allow me to take the expereince on the go, and a Switch 2/Switch Pro would allow them to maintain 3rd party support, while reselling to the core Nintendo fans.

Nintendo has all the ability in the world to make the Switch platform the most successful in the history of the company. If they innovate and execute, they can blow past the success they saw with Wii and DS. As it stands, I see no reason Switch won't reach 80 - 120M in its current form. Some extreamly simple choices, and it could sell 200, 300, or 400M before it is all said and done.

Nintendo would have to fuck up badly for Switch to sell less than 100 million units lifetime.

The Switch is a successor to both the Wii U and 3DS.  Furthermore it will definitely sell more than 80m.  That seems like a ludicrously conservative estimate to me.  Some things to consider:

1)  The 3DS still has a couple of good years in it.  There are too many kids out there that still need a handheld console and their parents are not going to buy them their own Switch for $300 with very losable joy-cons.  In 2-3 years there will be a cheaper/simpler version of the Switch targeted at kids, which will be when they are ready to take the 3DS off the market.  Anyway even if you are only adding 3DS + Wii U, you are going to need to increase that amount by about 10m.

2)  Thinking that the Switch is only going to get Wii U customers from the home market is extremely naive.  The Gamecube and Wii U were very disappointing consoles that mostly just reached the most devoted Nintendo fans.  At the same time the PS2 and PS4 were respectively tearing up the sales charts.  The PS3 did not tear up the sales charts.  It stalled out of the gate, because the Wii and XBox360 were taking away its customers.  The Wii was an exciting console that people wanted to buy and so is the Switch.  It is extremely naive to think that the Switch will not get any customers from current PS4 owners.  Most of them will get a new console at some point and some of them will choose Switch instead of PS5. 

So taking all of this into account start with 90m, and then figure out what % of PS4 and XB1 customers are going to buy a Switch.  Add that together and you've got what kind of sales it is going to do.

Will it be a successful console?   Of course.  Any Nintendo home console that can sell at least as well as the SNES will be a success.  So they are pretty much guaranteed success. 

If the Switch hits 50M, it's a success in my opinion

I'm sure it will do better than that

Everyone is keeping it civil, so don't start nonsense hm?

No one makes an alt 5 years in advance.

It's an obvious joke, you don't have to take it seriously

Correct.

It would be interesting to know Nintendo's expectations, but no matter what happens they will always claim it to be a success.

But i think it makes sense thinking that if it sells very south of Wii U+3DS it would be a disappointment. I wanted to know what the perception is though. There's many factors that come into how successful a system is, wich i am not considering here, in particular software sales.

For me the Switch is a singular console, wich for sure sent alot of us into a spin in how it managed to become a success. I am most interested in finding out why that was and how far it can go.

I don't think sales is the real metric of success, it's profit earned. If people remember, 3DS got a huge price cut a few months after launch of sluggish sales. At $169, did each 3DS earn the same as every switch? Probably not. Chances are, switch's profit margin is much higher, and let's say 40 million switch units earned the same as 60 million 3DS units, cause of a higher profit margin. (I'm just giving these numbers as a ballpark guess, nothing confirmed)

Well it depends on intention ... 

If the goal is get as much mind share and market share as possible then sales should definitely be considered one of or maybe even the sole metric of success if it's for the sake of obtaining a future monopoly to lock out or kick your competitors to a curb ... 

Despite Google's Android and it's vendors not making as much profit in comparison to Apple right now they are actively seeking to create future to make iOS irrelevant and their doing a pretty damn good job of it ... (China used to be one of Apple's growing markets but it got cut short by domestic chinese competitors)

There used to be a similar situation with Mac and Windows but it's not like we need to bring that up again ... 

Well, you're right. But again, what's the core reason they want more marketshare? It all comes down to more profit. Google trying to get rid of IOS. If they are successful, what happens? Android captures more of the market, resulting in more phones sold, resulting in more cash inflow, also known as profit.