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PS4 VS Switch lifetime sales, which console will sell the most?

Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 VS Switch lifetime sales, which console will sell the most?

What do you expect?

NSW will win by a huge margin 18 6.69%
 
NSW will win by a small margin 59 21.93%
 
PS4 will win by a small margin 70 26.02%
 
PS4 will win by a huge margin 115 42.75%
 
Sorry, no troll XB1 option. :P Oh wait... 7 2.60%
 
Total:269
Barkley said:
zorg1000 said:

Shadow1980 has done a pretty good write up in the past explaining how price cuts late in a systems life dont have any long term affects.

PS3/360 had some pretty crazy good deals in 2013 but it didnt stop them from having 30-40% YoY declines.

I don't agree with that at all, permanent price cuts seems to be exactly what affects how well a system does with a successor. After all, who would buy a $269 PS3 when they could get a $399 PS4? The price difference wasn't enough for the PS3 to keep selling.

PS1 shipped another 29m units after the PS2 launched, it's last price cut was to $49 in May 2002.

PS2 shipped another 48m units after the PS3 launched, it's last price cut was to $99 in April 2009.

PS3 shipped just 7m units after the PS4 launched, it's last price cut was to $269 when the super slim launched in September 2012.

PS3 price didn't go low enough and didn't get a cut after the PS4 and thus it had terrible legs post-successor compared to previous PlayStation systems.

A PS4 that gets an official cut to $199 will sell a LOT more after the PS5 is released, then a $299 PS4 will.

But it's not only due to price point. PS2 sold a lot post-PS3 launch because Sony messed up big time with the PS3 launch. PS3 sold less post-PS4 launch because Sony got everything right with the PS4 launch.



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TruckOSaurus said:
Barkley said:

I don't agree with that at all, permanent price cuts seems to be exactly what affects how well a system does with a successor. After all, who would buy a $269 PS3 when they could get a $399 PS4? The price difference wasn't enough for the PS3 to keep selling.

PS1 shipped another 29m units after the PS2 launched, it's last price cut was to $49 in May 2002.

PS2 shipped another 48m units after the PS3 launched, it's last price cut was to $99 in April 2009.

PS3 shipped just 7m units after the PS4 launched, it's last price cut was to $269 when the super slim launched in September 2012.

PS3 price didn't go low enough and didn't get a cut after the PS4 and thus it had terrible legs post-successor compared to previous PlayStation systems.

A PS4 that gets an official cut to $199 will sell a LOT more after the PS5 is released, then a $299 PS4 will.

But it's not only due to price point. PS2 sold a lot post-PS3 launch because Sony messed up big time with the PS3 launch. PS3 sold less post-PS4 launch because Sony got everything right with the PS4 launch.

Yes that's true, it's not just price point and the relative performance of the PS3 would have helped PS2 as well as hinder it's own legs, but price clearly plays a big role. If the price difference between the last-gen and next-gen system is too low, people aren't going to bother picking up the older console over the newer one. The only reason to get the older console is to save money. In the case of the PS3 the last official RRP of $269 vs $399 just wasn't enough of a saving for the system to keep selling.

So the PS4 getting an official price cut in the future to $199 or even $149 would vastly help it's performance post-ps5. $199 vs $499 is enough of a difference for people to still pick up a PS4.



LTD: PS4 - 125m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 51m

2020: PS4 - 10m, Switch - 21.5m, XBO - 2.5m, PS5 - 4.5m, XBX - 2.8m

Barkley said:
zorg1000 said:

Shadow1980 has done a pretty good write up in the past explaining how price cuts late in a systems life dont have any long term affects.

PS3/360 had some pretty crazy good deals in 2013 but it didnt stop them from having 30-40% YoY declines.

I don't agree with that at all, permanent price cuts seems to be exactly what affects how well a system does with a successor. After all, who would buy a $269 PS3 when they could get a $399 PS4? The price difference wasn't enough for the PS3 to keep selling.

PS1 shipped another 29m units after the PS2 launched, it's last price cut was to $49 in May 2002.

PS2 shipped another 48m units after the PS3 launched, it's last price cut was to $99 in April 2009.

PS3 shipped just 7m units after the PS4 launched, it's last price cut was to $269 when the super slim launched in September 2012.

PS3 price didn't go low enough and didn't get a cut after the PS4 and thus it had terrible legs post-successor compared to previous PlayStation systems.

A PS4 that gets an official cut to $199 will sell a LOT more after the PS5 is released, then a $299 PS4 will.

A huge chunk of those post-successor sales of PS1 & PS2 came from emerging markets which have grown significantly since then and can buy consoles sooner.

Also PS3 final price cut was to $199 in 2013

https://www.digitalspy.com/videogames/gamescom/a508489/gamescom-2013-playstation-3-price-drop-announced-by-sony/



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

They may not have a desire to cut the price now while it's still selling very well, but next year or beyond will be a different story I imagine.

Shadow1980 has done a pretty good write up in the past explaining how price cuts late in a systems life dont have any long term affects.

PS3/360 had some pretty crazy good deals in 2013 but it didnt stop them from having 30-40% YoY declines.

I dunno, like Barkley says, if PS5 launches at $500, I can see a $200-$150 PS4 remaining an attractive buy for low income consumers for years to come.



curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

Shadow1980 has done a pretty good write up in the past explaining how price cuts late in a systems life dont have any long term affects.

PS3/360 had some pretty crazy good deals in 2013 but it didnt stop them from having 30-40% YoY declines.

I dunno, like Barkley says, if PS5 launches at $500, I can see a $200-$150 PS4 remaining an attractive buy for low income consumers for years to come.

PS3/360 were in that price point but were not huge hits for low income families after PS4/XB1 released

PS3+360 sales

2013 holiday-~4.3m

2014-~6.2m

2015-~2.3m

2016-~900k

2017-~250k

Combined they did ~14 million after the launch of PS4/XB1 with official prices of $199 and BF discounts down to $99 for 360 and $149 for PS3.

The days of crazy post-successor legs like PS1/PS2 had are over.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

I dunno, like Barkley says, if PS5 launches at $500, I can see a $200-$150 PS4 remaining an attractive buy for low income consumers for years to come.

PS3/360 were in that price point but were not huge hits for low income families after PS4/XB1 released

PS3+360 sales

2013 holiday-~4.3m

2014-~6.2m

2015-~2.3m

2016-~900k

2017-~250k

Combined they did ~14 million after the launch of PS4/XB1 with official prices of $199 and BF discounts down to $99 for 360 and $149 for PS3.

The days of crazy post-successor legs like PS1/PS2 had are over.

PS3/360 were never anywhere near as popular as the PS4 though.



curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

PS3/360 were in that price point but were not huge hits for low income families after PS4/XB1 released

PS3+360 sales

2013 holiday-~4.3m

2014-~6.2m

2015-~2.3m

2016-~900k

2017-~250k

Combined they did ~14 million after the launch of PS4/XB1 with official prices of $199 and BF discounts down to $99 for 360 and $149 for PS3.

The days of crazy post-successor legs like PS1/PS2 had are over.

PS3/360 were never anywhere near as popular as the PS4 though.

Individually they werent but combined they were always more popular and my numbers are including both.

If both combined could only do 14 million after PS4/XB1 released than it's unlikely that PS4 alone will do that much when PS5/XB2 release.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

I dunno, like Barkley says, if PS5 launches at $500, I can see a $200-$150 PS4 remaining an attractive buy for low income consumers for years to come.

PS3/360 were in that price point but were not huge hits for low income families after PS4/XB1 released

PS3+360 sales

2013 holiday-~4.3m

2014-~6.2m

2015-~2.3m

2016-~900k

2017-~250k

Combined they did ~14 million after the launch of PS4/XB1 with official prices of $199 and BF discounts down to $99 for 360 and $149 for PS3.

The days of crazy post-successor legs like PS1/PS2 had are over.

I would say it depends on the circumstances

PS2's legs were so long for 2 reasons: PS3's launch price tag and Singstar. I know lots of people who only bought a PS2 for Singstar or similar games like Buzzer that wouldn't touch any other "real" game with a 10 foot pole. The fact that the PS3 was so overly expensive certainly did help the PS2 a while longer to sell well.

PS4, on the other hand, was considered vastly better yet not vastly more expensive, so of course the change happened quickly. The fact that the great games of the PS360 era got almost all remastered for the new consoles didn't make those any favors, either.

This leaves us with a mixed bag for the next gen: From a price perspective, we'll get closer to a PS3 price than a PS4 price, which could have been in favor of PS4/XBO sales at the beginning. However, the fact that both will most likely be backwards compatible also kills somewhat the point of buying a console of this gen instead of waiting until you can afford the next gen.

What I expect is that the sales of the next gen outside of the launch holiday will slow down (compared to this gen) due to the pricetags but then pick up the pace in year 2 and 3 when they got a bit cheaper and more affordable. By that point the old gen will be pretty much dead, as they lost all their selling points.



Barkley said:
zorg1000 said:

Shadow1980 has done a pretty good write up in the past explaining how price cuts late in a systems life dont have any long term affects.

PS3/360 had some pretty crazy good deals in 2013 but it didnt stop them from having 30-40% YoY declines.

I don't agree with that at all, permanent price cuts seems to be exactly what affects how well a system does with a successor. After all, who would buy a $269 PS3 when they could get a $399 PS4? The price difference wasn't enough for the PS3 to keep selling.

PS1 shipped another 29m units after the PS2 launched, it's last price cut was to $49 in May 2002.

PS2 shipped another 48m units after the PS3 launched, it's last price cut was to $99 in April 2009.

PS3 shipped just 7m units after the PS4 launched, it's last price cut was to $269 when the super slim launched in September 2012.

PS3 price didn't go low enough and didn't get a cut after the PS4 and thus it had terrible legs post-successor compared to previous PlayStation systems.

A PS4 that gets an official cut to $199 will sell a LOT more after the PS5 is released, then a $299 PS4 will.

Yea, his reasoning is very suspect on that topic. He's mainly looking at increases in sales. But, price cuts late in the gen aren't about increasing sales. It's about slowing the decline. If DS and PS2 hadn't dropped below $100, basically dropping into impulse buy territory, there's no way they would have made it to 150M and beyond.



zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

I dunno, like Barkley says, if PS5 launches at $500, I can see a $200-$150 PS4 remaining an attractive buy for low income consumers for years to come.

PS3/360 were in that price point but were not huge hits for low income families after PS4/XB1 released

PS3+360 sales

2013 holiday-~4.3m

2014-~6.2m

2015-~2.3m

2016-~900k

2017-~250k

Combined they did ~14 million after the launch of PS4/XB1 with official prices of $199 and BF discounts down to $99 for 360 and $149 for PS3.

The days of crazy post-successor legs like PS1/PS2 had are over.

That's just because their successors launched a year later than previous gens. The same will happen with the PS4. Though, 14M is doable if the PS4 hits $199. It'll most likely be at 115M-118M by the time the PS5 launches. That would mean it would hit 129M-131M.