Quantcast
PS4 VS Switch lifetime sales, which console will sell the most?

Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 VS Switch lifetime sales, which console will sell the most?

What do you expect?

NSW will win by a huge margin 18 6.69%
 
NSW will win by a small margin 59 21.93%
 
PS4 will win by a small margin 70 26.02%
 
PS4 will win by a huge margin 115 42.75%
 
Sorry, no troll XB1 option. :P Oh wait... 7 2.60%
 
Total:269

Don't think Switch will do PS4 numbers, but I do expect Switch to surpass Wii and PS1. PS4 might do 130 million so Switch could very well end up like 20 million behind it when all is said and done. The great thing Nintendo has got going for it is that it's closing in on 3 years and hasn't done a price cut yet. Next holidays maybe they'll ready two huge games (2d Mario + BotW2 ??) plus first price cut plus maybe a Switch Pro all ahead of the Micro/Sony launches to keep momentum going for the Switch through the new system's launches.

They've also got a bunch of handheld franchises that have yet to be brought to the Switch that could help fill up the next 2 or 3 years. Plus Animal Crossing coming soon, and waiting on stuff like Metroid, Pikmin, Fzero????, Star Fox??, Paper Mario, maybe a new DK, and several other sequels to games that are already on Switch (I'm thinking at least 3D Mario, Mario Party, and another Pokemon).

This is off topic now, but I would hope the success of the Switch gives Nintendo the money to get 3rd party AAA support next gen. If Nintendo now sticks to the mid-gen release schedule started with the Switch, that means they could release Switch 2 say like 3 years after ps5/scarlett. Perhaps that time difference plus their profits from Switch would allow them to make a Switch 2 that is close enough to the other two systems in power as to be able to get downgraded but still full versions of 3rd party AAA games releases. You know like drop framerate, rez, some graphical bells and whistles but keep the game very playable and the same overall. If Switch 2 could do that it would be the ultimate version of what Nintendo is doing - hybrid console, full Nintendo focus on a single system, with AAA 3rd party support as well to also compete with those tens of millions of gamers who won't even consider the current Switch.



Around the Network
RolStoppable said:
Barkley said:

You're right, apparently the original release UK chart had it at 5th, behind witcher 3 and MK8:D, but they updated it later to be 3rd. Regardless, it sold less than Mario Kart in it's first week. Yet you expect 10m? It came 10th in NPD... 10m? America would be it's biggest market.

The shipments for it's 2nd and 3rd quarters are going to be the definitive nail in that coffin. Then I shall laugh.

Japan sales are 260k, Wii Fit had sold over 1m by this point. It's not coming close to 10m.

Also, you've allowed yourself to be misled by ZhugeEX. Wii Fit had sold through 1m in Japan in the same timeframe, but Wii Fit was also a Japan-exclusive game at the time, making it much easier to manage stock for Nintendo. Ring Fit Adventure should have also sold through 1m or closer to it by now, it's just that its sales are distributed worldwide and that's why ZhugeEX's tweet is misleading because it doesn't mention that a straight 1:1 comparison between RFA and Wii Fit sales is not possible.

Famitsu has Wii Fit reaching 1M next week. The 260k figure disregards 2 weeks of sales compared to Wii Fit @1M. Does Zhuge have access to actual sales or is he using last week's Famitsu's numbers and comparing them to next week's Wii Fit numbers?

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241361&page=1#18



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Pyro as Bill said:
RolStoppable said:

Also, you've allowed yourself to be misled by ZhugeEX. Wii Fit had sold through 1m in Japan in the same timeframe, but Wii Fit was also a Japan-exclusive game at the time, making it much easier to manage stock for Nintendo. Ring Fit Adventure should have also sold through 1m or closer to it by now, it's just that its sales are distributed worldwide and that's why ZhugeEX's tweet is misleading because it doesn't mention that a straight 1:1 comparison between RFA and Wii Fit sales is not possible.

Famitsu has Wii Fit reaching 1M next week. The 260k figure disregards 2 weeks of sales compared to Wii Fit @1M. Does Zhuge have access to actual sales or is he using last week's Famitsu's numbers and comparing them to next week's Wii Fit numbers?

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241361&page=1#18

Famitsu's numbers are publicly available, so I am pretty sure that ZhugeEX doesn't have any better numbers than we can look up. You are correct that he made a mistake, he compared RFA through five weeks vs. Wii Fit through seven weeks. The actual values through six weeks are 290k for RFA and 910k for Wii Fit.

And as another post noted, Wii Fit was released on December 1st, so it had enjoyed a boost from holiday sales whereas RFA's mid-October launch means no holiday boost for its sales yet.

In any case, it's premature to write off a game like RFA after less than two months when it has already demonstrated good holds in weekly sales. Games that sell beyond the typical console gamer have different sales patterns and curves.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

RolStoppable said:
Pyro as Bill said:

Famitsu has Wii Fit reaching 1M next week. The 260k figure disregards 2 weeks of sales compared to Wii Fit @1M. Does Zhuge have access to actual sales or is he using last week's Famitsu's numbers and comparing them to next week's Wii Fit numbers?

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241361&page=1#18

Famitsu's numbers are publicly available, so I am pretty sure that ZhugeEX doesn't have any better numbers than we can look up. You are correct that he made a mistake, he compared RFA through five weeks vs. Wii Fit through seven weeks. The actual values through six weeks are 290k for RFA and 910k for Wii Fit.

And as another post noted, Wii Fit was released on December 1st, so it had enjoyed a boost from holiday sales whereas RFA's mid-October launch means no holiday boost for its sales yet.

In any case, it's premature to write off a game like RFA after less than two months when it has already demonstrated good holds in weekly sales. Games that sell beyond the typical console gamer have different sales patterns and curves.

Thought so. Amateur mistake. Seems like he's ignoring the numbers to fit a narrative. Typical communist.

With adequate supply and releasing closer to the holidays RFA would be at 450k compared to Wii Fit at 1m and 45% of Wii Fit's sales is 10m.

Amazon reviews and Ebay are useful for judging non-traditional games. Witcher 3 on Switch has 120+ used copies sold v ~20 of RFA (~15 if you exclude those without the ring). Impressive given the only marketing has been a Youtube video. It's like Nintendo is purposely hindering it so they can measure the strength of word of mouth. Very clever.

⚠️ User was warned for this post.


-think-man

Last edited by CGI-Quality - on 03 December 2019

Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Lifetime, I expect PS4 to sell between 130 and 140 million, and Switch between 100 and 110 million.



Around the Network

These concerns of Switch sales slowing down bc of the new consoles coming remind me people confident in the past that PS4pro and Xonex release would kill any chance of switch finding success.

And people didn't get the memo that Nintendo is going to support switch way beyond than past home consoles? Is Nintendo really stupid to combine its software output in a system that is pumping in sales to then early cut that just bc it needs to release a more powerful console? For what? So it can get the approval seal in gaming forums as a real 9th gen system and get ignored by AAA producers with some lame excuse like "the audience is not there"?

Get some sense

Last edited by 160rmf - on 04 December 2019

 

 

We reap what we sow

Bofferbrauer2 said:

Wii Fit also had an entire holiday season by this point and was very heavily marketed. No small wonder it sold like hot cakes.

And, like Pyro already pointed out, Ring Fit Adventure has stock issues as Nintendo wasn't prepared to it's level of success, while Wii Fit didn't have that problem.

RolStoppable said:

A game like Ring Fit Adventure doesn't need a strong launch month to go on to sell 10m+. A game like it gains traction through good word of mouth, and the game now being in short supply in Japan is already a hint for a different sales curve compared to the usual video game.

Wow other people actually think 10m+ is feasible? Crazy. Yes the game won't follow a standard sales curve, which is why I said 5m, not 2.5m.

Feasible sales range is 3.5-7m.



LTD: PS4 - 125m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 51m

2020: PS4 - 9m, Switch - 22.5m, XBO - 2.5m, PS5 - 4.5m, XBX - 2.8m

Barkley said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Wii Fit also had an entire holiday season by this point and was very heavily marketed. No small wonder it sold like hot cakes.

And, like Pyro already pointed out, Ring Fit Adventure has stock issues as Nintendo wasn't prepared to it's level of success, while Wii Fit didn't have that problem.

RolStoppable said:

A game like Ring Fit Adventure doesn't need a strong launch month to go on to sell 10m+. A game like it gains traction through good word of mouth, and the game now being in short supply in Japan is already a hint for a different sales curve compared to the usual video game.

Wow other people actually think 10m+ is feasible? Crazy. Yes the game won't follow a standard sales curve, which is why I said 5m, not 2.5m.

Feasible sales range is 3.5-7m.

Ehm... If Nintendo had the stock for it I'm pretty sure Wii Fit would already come awfully close to those 3.5M in the next quarterly report. The way it is I'm more expecting something like 2M, so just not enough to make it into the top 10, but well enough to get a good mention during the IR meeting.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Barkley said:

Wow other people actually think 10m+ is feasible? Crazy. Yes the game won't follow a standard sales curve, which is why I said 5m, not 2.5m.

Feasible sales range is 3.5-7m.

Ehm... If Nintendo had the stock for it I'm pretty sure Wii Fit would already come awfully close to those 3.5M in the next quarterly report. The way it is I'm more expecting something like 2M, so just not enough to make it into the top 10, but well enough to get a good mention during the IR meeting.

I agree. 3.5m is pretty much "worst case scenario". 2M shipped by the end of the year is actually the least I expect.



LTD: PS4 - 125m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 51m

2020: PS4 - 9m, Switch - 22.5m, XBO - 2.5m, PS5 - 4.5m, XBX - 2.8m

I wouldn't be too surprised if nothing going forward outsells the PS4. PS5 probably has the best shot, but I think streaming services in 3-5 years are going to start to have an impact on physical hardware sales, this is going to be the last generation without a large impact from that.