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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 VS Switch lifetime sales, which console will sell the most?

 

What do you expect?

NSW will win by a huge margin 53 16.06%
 
NSW will win by a small margin 75 22.73%
 
PS4 will win by a small margin 75 22.73%
 
PS4 will win by a huge margin 117 35.45%
 
Sorry, no troll XB1 option. :P Oh wait... 10 3.03%
 
Total:330
RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

"Support" doesn't necessarily mean "not replace" though; 3DS has replaced after 6 years but still got support in 2017 and 2018 after the release of the Switch.

The statement was in the context of replacement and has been repeated in a Q&A session with investors. Nintendo must have realized how foolish it was to cut the lifecycles of the DS and Wii short.

Beyond that, the launch dates that get commonly thrown around for the Switch successor don't make sense for two other reasons:

1. Switch is much more successful than the 3DS, and the 3DS had a full six years before it got replaced.

2. Console manufacturers target the holiday season for launch dates because it results in two strong months out of the gate instead of only one followed by  a steep dropoff.

That's why spring 2023, 2022 as a whole and the utterly ridiculous 2021 are too early. Holidays 2023 onwards is much more sensible for the launch date of the Switch successor. The only argument that is ever made for those early launches is processing power, but anyone who thinks a minute or two about the importance of processing power (or rather the lack thereof) should realize how wrong that line of thinking is.

2021 is indeed ridiculous but I don't think a spring 2023 release is out of the question, Switch released in March and had a strong launch.



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VideoGameAccountant said:
curl-6 said:

Yeah 2023 sounds about right; give it 6 years before replacement, 5 would be cutting it too short for such a successful system. 

It will probably be 7 rather than 6. 7 years is the norm now for consoles. The former president Kimishima stated they intend to support the Switch longer than the 5-6 year lifespan (stating perhaps a 7-10 year lifespan). 7 is the safest bet so likely March 2024 or Holiday 2023. 

Here's the quote: https://metro.co.uk/2018/02/02/nintendo-plans-support-switch-7-10-years-7281632/

Unless the Switch sales come crashing down like with the Wii in the heyday, and I doubt that will happen, I can see the Switch running even a bit longer before replacement. I'm expecting Fall 2024 or March 2025 for the successor of the Switch, with a more powerful version released in between in 2021 (NVidia is also using the chips for the Switch for their own Shield consoles - and those get upgraded every 2 years), a bit like what Nintendo did with the New 3DS



RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

2021 is indeed ridiculous but I don't think a spring 2023 release is out of the question, Switch released in March and had a strong launch.

Spring 2023 would mean that Nintendo originally targets holidays 2022 and has to delay the launch. I am not sure why you desire a shorter than necessary lifecycle for Switch.

I don't desire it. I'm just speculating on what happen whether I like it or not. I'd be more than happy with a holiday 2023 release.



curl-6 said:
RolStoppable said:

The statement was in the context of replacement and has been repeated in a Q&A session with investors. Nintendo must have realized how foolish it was to cut the lifecycles of the DS and Wii short.

Beyond that, the launch dates that get commonly thrown around for the Switch successor don't make sense for two other reasons:

1. Switch is much more successful than the 3DS, and the 3DS had a full six years before it got replaced.

2. Console manufacturers target the holiday season for launch dates because it results in two strong months out of the gate instead of only one followed by  a steep dropoff.

That's why spring 2023, 2022 as a whole and the utterly ridiculous 2021 are too early. Holidays 2023 onwards is much more sensible for the launch date of the Switch successor. The only argument that is ever made for those early launches is processing power, but anyone who thinks a minute or two about the importance of processing power (or rather the lack thereof) should realize how wrong that line of thinking is.

2021 is indeed ridiculous but I don't think a spring 2023 release is out of the question, Switch released in March and had a strong launch.

I think we're its ridiculous is that they will do a 6 year lifespan again when the market no longer does that and that it's unwise to kill a successful console early. The whole 6 year lifespan was an Iwata idea (and Iwata was an awful business strategist unless he took it directly from another book). Kimishima was basically saying they weren't going to stick to a hard and fast timeframe for the Switch like they did with the Wii and DS. Earliest I could see it is Holiday 2023 and that would be to take advantage of the holiday seasons (which would mean the Switch had a 6 and 3/4th year lifespan). 



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VideoGameAccountant said:
curl-6 said:

2021 is indeed ridiculous but I don't think a spring 2023 release is out of the question, Switch released in March and had a strong launch.

I think we're its ridiculous is that they will do a 6 year lifespan again when the market no longer does that and that it's unwise to kill a successful console early. The whole 6 year lifespan was an Iwata idea (and Iwata was an awful business strategist unless he took it directly from another book). Kimishima was basically saying they weren't going to stick to a hard and fast timeframe for the Switch like they did with the Wii and DS. Earliest I could see it is Holiday 2023 and that would be to take advantage of the holiday seasons (which would mean the Switch had a 6 and 3/4th year lifespan). 

Well, naturally as a Switch owner I want it to have a long and plentiful lifespan. I think I'll always be a bit bitter at Nintendo for only giving the Wii 4 years of proper support and I hope they never cut a console that unnecessarily short again.



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curl-6 said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

I think we're its ridiculous is that they will do a 6 year lifespan again when the market no longer does that and that it's unwise to kill a successful console early. The whole 6 year lifespan was an Iwata idea (and Iwata was an awful business strategist unless he took it directly from another book). Kimishima was basically saying they weren't going to stick to a hard and fast timeframe for the Switch like they did with the Wii and DS. Earliest I could see it is Holiday 2023 and that would be to take advantage of the holiday seasons (which would mean the Switch had a 6 and 3/4th year lifespan). 

Well, naturally as a Switch owner I want it to have a long and plentiful lifespan. I think I'll always be a bit bitter at Nintendo for only giving the Wii 4 years of proper support and I hope they never cut a console that unnecessarily short again.

That's the thing those guys don't get. Nintendo isn't exactly in control of when their successors launch.  The market is. If in 2021, we start to get a decline all year for Switch regardless of price cuts, and 2022 sees more of the same, you can bet Nintendo will make sure they are ready for a 2023 launch of the Switch 2. If a price cut stops the decline, they will probably wait til 2024.

Still, a 6 year span between consoles isn't exactly short. It's more like the average.



RolStoppable said:
thismeintiel said:

That's the thing those guys don't get. Nintendo isn't exactly in control of when their successors launch.  The market is. If in 2021, we start to get a decline all year for Switch regardless of price cuts, and 2022 sees more of the same, you can bet Nintendo will make sure they are ready for a 2023 launch of the Switch 2. If a price cut stops the decline, they will probably wait til 2024.

Still, a 6 year span between consoles isn't exactly short. It's more like the average.

If you throw out such a what-if-scenario, you might as well say what the reasons for such a decline will be. Because as it is, it's just the same old "Switch will fall off a cliff" narrative.

LMAO. Let's try not to be completely blinded by bias. Again. Seeing noticable declines after being on the market for 4 years isn't exactly falling off a cliff. It's actually the norm.

To me, you seem to be of the mind that the Switch is going to match or beat the DS. Keep dreaming.



thismeintiel said:
curl-6 said:

Well, naturally as a Switch owner I want it to have a long and plentiful lifespan. I think I'll always be a bit bitter at Nintendo for only giving the Wii 4 years of proper support and I hope they never cut a console that unnecessarily short again.

That's the thing those guys don't get. Nintendo isn't exactly in control of when their successors launch.  The market is. If in 2021, we start to get a decline all year for Switch regardless of price cuts, and 2022 sees more of the same, you can bet Nintendo will make sure they are ready for a 2023 launch of the Switch 2. If a price cut stops the decline, they will probably wait til 2024.

Still, a 6 year span between consoles isn't exactly short. It's more like the average.

As I said, I'd be happy for Switch to have a 6 year lifespan and be replaced in March 2023. I just would rather it not be cut much shorter than that.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 08 December 2019

thismeintiel said:
curl-6 said:

Well, naturally as a Switch owner I want it to have a long and plentiful lifespan. I think I'll always be a bit bitter at Nintendo for only giving the Wii 4 years of proper support and I hope they never cut a console that unnecessarily short again.

That's the thing those guys don't get. Nintendo isn't exactly in control of when their successors launch.  The market is. If in 2021, we start to get a decline all year for Switch regardless of price cuts, and 2022 sees more of the same, you can bet Nintendo will make sure they are ready for a 2023 launch of the Switch 2. If a price cut stops the decline, they will probably wait til 2024.

Still, a 6 year span between consoles isn't exactly short. It's more like the average.

You could have said the same with the PS3 and 360. Regardless, at this point, that likely wont happen unless there is a significant economic downturn and if thats the case they'll leave it on the market longer rather than cut it's lifespan. At this point, we know where the Switch stands. Gen 9 has already been a success for them. The question now is how successful will it be. Console are basically determined by their first 18 months. Lastly, I'm not sure how you can say 6 years is the average when the last two gens have been 7 years for Sony and Microsoft and Nintendo is now saying 7.



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RolStoppable said:
thismeintiel said:

LMAO. Let's try not to be completely blinded by bias. Again. Seeing noticable declines after being on the market for 4 years isn't exactly falling off a cliff. It's actually the norm.

To me, you seem to be of the mind that the Switch is going to match or beat the DS. Keep dreaming.

Remember, you said "decline all year regardless of price cuts, and 2022 more of the same."

I also said, "If a price cut stops the decline, they will probably wait til 2024."

VideoGameAccountant said:
thismeintiel said:

That's the thing those guys don't get. Nintendo isn't exactly in control of when their successors launch.  The market is. If in 2021, we start to get a decline all year for Switch regardless of price cuts, and 2022 sees more of the same, you can bet Nintendo will make sure they are ready for a 2023 launch of the Switch 2. If a price cut stops the decline, they will probably wait til 2024.

Still, a 6 year span between consoles isn't exactly short. It's more like the average.

You could have said the same with the PS3 and 360. Regardless, at this point, that likely wont happen unless there is a significant economic downturn and if thats the case they'll leave it on the market longer rather than cut it's lifespan. At this point, we know where the Switch stands. Gen 9 has already been a success for them. The question now is how successful will it be. Console are basically determined by their first 18 months. Lastly, I'm not sure how you can say 6 years is the average when the last two gens have been 7 years for Sony and Microsoft and Nintendo is now saying 7.

And you can say that about every console.  So?

And we have had more than just 2 console gens.  So, 6 years is probably around the average.  Also, Nintendo didn't say anything about 7 years.  They said that they plan to support it longer than their past console.  Who knows if they meant 3DS, which would probably mean 7 years, or if they mean Wii U.  If it's the latter, than 6 years would be longer than it's less than 5 year life span.  Regardless of which one it is, if the market changes for them, then plans will have to change, too.