Yep and not only that but AAA games in early 2017 like For Honor, Horizon Zero Dawn, Mass Effect Andromeda & Ghost Recon Wildlands were supposed to make Switch and BotW only appeal to hardcore Nintendo fans.

They're vastly different products that people buy for different reasons. You buy a Playstation/Xbox to play AAA games at home. You buy a Switch to play Nintendo games, and on the go. It's like comparing cars to motorbikes, or the DS to PS3/360. 

I dont think Nintendo cares if people play on other consoles, with the tie ratio of pretty much every console being under 12 than as long as these people buy like 2 games per year than Nintendo is fine.

Not sure you're gonna be getting that. A person who spends possibly $499 on a PS5 lets say + $60 for an extra DS5 + actual games for that PS5 + PSN network cost ... is gonna be kinda tapped out. 

But I think Switch 2 happens around March 2022 anyway so it'll be part of the natural downcycle of the product cycle for Nintendo anyway. 

Yeah they will be tapped out when they first buy the console, not necessarily in the months/years following that. The PS/XB gamers who bought Switch in 2017-2019 to play games like BotW, Odyssey & Xenoblade 2 will most likely pick up games like BotW 2, Odyssey 2, Prime 4 & Bayo 3 in 2020-2022.

No way does Switch 2 come out in March 2022, they have talked multiple times about wanting a longer console cycle and if 3DS got 6 years than Switch getting 5 makes no sense.

That's the other thing; price. PS5/Scarlett are looking like they could be $500 USD, while Switch by then or in 2021 could be $250 for the standard and $150 for the Lite. 

I think the OG Switch will continue to supported for several years past that, similar to 3DS but even moreso. But the big difference is Switch 1 titles will play on Switch 2 and probably they can do stuff like have higher resolution without much fuss. 

Switch 2 is probably gonna cost $350 at launch (this is a premium profit margin for Nintendo), so Switch OG + Switch Lite will serve the budget market for several more years. Switch Lite at like $169.99 ... no way is Switch 2 getting into that price range for *years*, so it has a valuable place in the market place. 

So original Switch is not going anywhere, could see it stocked on storeshelves well into 2025 if I had to bet. They are not going to want to budget on the premium price point for the newer model Switch because it's very lucrative. Everyone yells at Sony/Nintendo for not cutting hardware prices, but the reason is they simply make more money keeping a higher priced premium SKU. 

This will let Nintendo basically have their cake and eat it too ... they get the long cycle for the OG Switch but also get the increased business that a fresh business cycle brings them and because Switch 1 games should be able to run on Switch 2, there's not even a problem of separated libraries that way. 

Overall I agree with most of what you're saying but I still feel like 5 years is too soon.

I'm guessing March 2023 giving it 6 years with 2 years of support after that, similar to 3DS.

I'd guess March 2023 since Nintendo has said that they want to support the Switch for a longer period than they usually do for consoles.  Plus, they kind of have to go with March 2023 since most of their EPD teams are due to release games in either 2020 or 2021.

[citation needed]

Can you show us some posts which claimed that Zelda BotW wouldn't be a big thing? That it doesn't have mass appeal, only appeal to hardcore Nintendo fans and will sell bad?

I can only remember the drama of some WiiU fans who were pissed that Nintendo didn't limit its sales on a dead system as an Wii U exclusive. How could Nintendo betray their most faithful fanbase and dare to release it also on their new system!