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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 VS Switch lifetime sales, which console will sell the most?

 

What do you expect?

NSW will win by a huge margin 53 16.06%
 
NSW will win by a small margin 75 22.73%
 
PS4 will win by a small margin 75 22.73%
 
PS4 will win by a huge margin 117 35.45%
 
Sorry, no troll XB1 option. :P Oh wait... 10 3.03%
 
Total:330
Zekkyou on 21 November 2017
SpokenTruth said:
DonFerrari said:

Still it won't be a equivalent to 1/4 or less of the american price to make the middle class income similar on the buying power, because at USD300 the Switch isn't being sold that much above cost.

And what cost do you think will be required given distribution costs will be significantly lower.  It's made in China.

I don't know how accurate they are, but after launch there were a few articles claiming a Switch costs $257 in parts to build.



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DonFerrari on 21 November 2017
SpokenTruth said:
DonFerrari said:

Still it won't be a equivalent to 1/4 or less of the american price to make the middle class income similar on the buying power, because at USD300 the Switch isn't being sold that much above cost.

And what cost do you think will be required given distribution costs will be significantly lower.  It's made in China.

Saving in transportation costs is minimal compared to all else. So the pricetag will still be quite close to USA unless they want to eat the cost (which Nintendo rarely do)... USA is usually the lowest tag WW for consoles.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

globalisateur on 21 November 2017

I think Switch sells very well because of great and finally after N64 era ambitious games (mostly open world) + thirst from Nintendo gamers that didn't buy the Wii U or the Wii.

But that will be a very front loaded console, more so than the Wii and it'll never reach 100 millions, contrary to PS4 that will easily reach that number of consoles sold.



DonFerrari on 21 November 2017
SpokenTruth said:
DonFerrari said:

Saving in transportation costs is minimal compared to all else. So the pricetag will still be quite close to USA unless they want to eat the cost (which Nintendo rarely do)... USA is usually the lowest tag WW for consoles.

Distribution is roughly 8-10% of costs.  Don't forget that China is going going to charge an import fee on its own products either.

Point is, we don't know what the hell it's going to cost but the Chinese purchasing power is increasing rapidly to the point they now purchase more cars than the US does each year and it should double the US market in just a few years.

Writing that off as still not a viable market is why Huawei will soon surpass Apple (did for a quarter already) and Samsung in the global mobile phone market sales.

Ok so you go from 300 to 270, discount another 20 if you want for the import tax (and don't forget that they may charge tax for the profit and profit shipment to Japan)... Still doesn't make it 1/4 of the price.

Don't expect massive difference on the price tag. Because if it indeed were massive it would easily find its way to grey market exporting.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Superman4 on 21 November 2017

Holy Hell this is a lot of you listen no you listen..! PS4 will win hands down that is projected fact ;) Xbone will be closer to Switch than PS4 and may even get beat overall by it. PS4 will continue to dominate until the PS5 is announced and then released. Only then will any of them have a chance to gain ground. As its stands the PS4 continues to out sell them all WW week after week.



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VideoGameAccountant on 26 November 2017
Lawlight said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

The problem is that you are saying it has to sell well in one market because Sony does well in that market. Again, if you look at Sony's Japan numbers, they are awful, so they need to do well in Europe if the system is to sell well. Nintendo doesn't have this because it dominates Japan and does well in the US. Again, Nintendo isn't doing bad in Europe and I think this is the misconception people are making. Europe's importance is being overemphasized because Sony does really well there. Nintendo will easily have a 15-25 million gain over Sony from Japan alone. If you look at it holistically, then you'd see that Nintendo progress in other regions more than makes up for a perceived lacking in Europe. 

The Switch with 25M gain on the PS4 in Japan? So you think it will sell more than the DS?

Maybe. The system has been selling out in Japan. I don't remember demand being this strong from the regular DS. You have to also keep in mind the Switch's software pipeline will be massive. Japanese developers are already pledging more Switch titles, including exclusives. In Japan, the Switch will be the primary console to for developers. Also, unlike the DS, it's not in a separate category. The DS had a counterpart in the Wii, The Switch doesn't have that, which means more software will be made for it. 

Right now, the PS4 is at about 5 million. THe 3DS broke 20 million in Japan. So 15M would be the low range. 25M is the high range. Given what I mentioned above, it could be on the high end. 



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jonathanalis on 28 November 2017

140M ps4

75 at end of this year, +21M(2018)+18M(2019)+15M(2020) put it near 120M.20M more in the next 5 years. 

130M switch

15m+25m+27m+23m+20m+20 in the next years 

Last edited by jonathanalis - on 28 November 2017

Ryng on 23 November 2018
Ryng_Tolu said:

MY PREDICTION (As for November 13 2017)

NSW - 125m
PS4 - 120m

Poll as for November 13 2017

Will be update in future...

Time to bump the thread about one year after i made it.

The PS4 had a similar year i expected, but right now PS5 is looking more like a 2020 thing than 2019... so i'll increase my LT prediction for PS4 by about 10m... If PS5 release in 2020.

Switch had a worse year than i expected but not really because of Switch, more like because many things that i expected this year (pricedrop, a real Pokémon and a new version) are now 2019 things. So i think those sales are just delayed, and should still sell close to 20m this year which is still huge.

My predictions
NSW - 120m
PS4 - 130m

Pool:

.



Amnesia on 23 November 2018

PS4 : 115M
NS : 80M



Ryng on 27 November 2019

bump again after one year. This comparation is getting more interesting as time goes on.