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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 VS Switch lifetime sales, which console will sell the most?

 

What do you expect?

NSW will win by a huge margin 53 16.06%
 
NSW will win by a small margin 75 22.73%
 
PS4 will win by a small margin 75 22.73%
 
PS4 will win by a huge margin 117 35.45%
 
Sorry, no troll XB1 option. :P Oh wait... 10 3.03%
 
Total:330
Intrinsic said:
Miyamotoo said:

I gave you good and logical possibilities why that maybe would make sense, and why thats not throwing away money, you ignoried all that and you were acting like evrething was set in stone, lol. Again, you dont know that, if plan from start would be holiday season launch and around 4m prepared consoles from launch. Again, Nintendo never didnt said they couldn't produce more than 2m for Switch launch, just that initial plan was to prepare 2m for launch and that they later had problem to increase that number, but if initial plan was to have bigger number stock for launch they could probably prepare more. Stock problem after launch is different thing, because maybe they had plan  to produce around 500k per month and they needed much more than that beacuse console was selling better than 500k and and factories couldn't start producing much more than that so soon.

you reaally don'yt know how console launches work do you?

ok, indulge me.... if nintendo just decided to prepare only 2M for launch even if they could have made double that..... why didn't they ramp up production anytime during the next 6 months after launch when the console was still in short supply?

And you do know that none of these companies are ever in a position to start manufacturing months ahead of time and just stockpiling the hardware right? It just doesn't work that way. Think of it this way, these things are "stored" when they are on the sea making their trip from factory to retailer. 

I could say same thing for you.

Because preparing stock for launch from initial stock plan is not same like ramping up production after launch. I mean they made contract something similar like this, to produce and to prepare 2m consoles for launch, and then after launch producing around 500k consoles per month. But if contract and plan from start was something like, 4m for launch and than after launch producing 1m per month that we probably wouldn't had stock problems. So my point is simple, if actual launch was during holiday season, plan from start (so we dont talking here about increasing production because we talking about initial plan) could be easily be to produce and prepare 4m consoles for launch. Ofcourse if Nintendo were aiming for holiday launch they would aim from start around 4m consoles for launch instead 2m, because they know they would easily much more consoles during holiday season compared to mauch.



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Miyamotoo said:

I could say same thing for you.

Because preparing stock for launch from initial stock plan is not same like ramping up production after launch. I mean they made contract something similar like this, to produce and to prepare 2m consoles for launch, and then after launch producing around 500k consoles per month. But if contract and plan from start was something like, 4m for launch and than after launch producing 1m per month that we probably wouldn't had stock problems. So my point is simple, if actual launch was during holiday season, plan from start (so we dont talking here about increasing production because we talking about initial plan) could be easily be to produce and prepare 4m consoles for launch. Ofcourse if Nintendo were aiming for holiday launch they would aim from start around 4m consoles for launch instead 2m, because they know they would easily much more consoles during holiday season compared to mauch.

Ok... so basically the meat of your argument is that nintendo

  1. would have sold more consoles if they released in november.
  2. that would have been possible because knowing they were releasing in november they would have made more consoles than they made.
  3. they couldn't ramp up production for the 6 months after that because of deals they made prior to launch.......
ok..... got you. lets just agree to disagree then. Because all of a sudden you seem to have been that fly on the wall when nintendo made their initial plan.... as opposed to going with facts of not just what has happened but what has happened during every single console launch over the last 3 decades.
I give up.


DonFerrari said:
Mnementh said:

The months are about right. You need months to get a contract with a manufacturer, get the supply chain running, get the quality in order and so on. Then you have shipping, that probably takes around a month. So between the decision in Sony or Nintendo headquarter: 'we need more units' and more units hitting the market I would guess 3-6 months. And it's still a guessing game, you have to guess right how much more demand you have to meet, otherwise you sit on unsold inventory and that costs too.

As I said Wii was an outlier. What happened there, your guess is as good as mine. But what we see from PS4 and Switch is what to expect from successful consoles.

But back to the argument that holidays have no impact at sales at launch because of supply constraints: that assumes fixed production capacities. That would mean thought through, that if demand is lower than workers at Sony or Nintendo sit around, as they have nothing to do. Obviously production capacity can be scaled to demand, as it is given to outside companies doing that stuff. So supply constraints are mainly a wrong guess about the demand.

Yep you are right on your assumptions imho. What we do know is that Sony got to meet their demand faster than Nintendo, but we don't really know if that was because Nintendo had a harder time rumping up Switch or if Sony read better the demand. But I agree with you that between the 1-2 months on shipping channels, new contracts, preparation and all 3-6 months to totally answer a shortage.

We weren't saying holiday doesn't impact demand (we know it does) nor that launching in a holiday wouldn't (it could). The point was just that if the console was sold out out of holiday launch there isn't much impact on sales that launching on holiday would cause because there would be no extra supply (even more when we had all those reports of lack of parts for Switch).

Miyamotoo said:

No, I gave you good and logical possibilities why that maybe would make sense, and why thats not throwing away money, you ignored all that and you were acting like everything was set in stone. It's pointless to reply any more on this matter.

Again, initial stock plan for launch, and increasing production after launch are two totally different things.

I used that number like example production after launch where they selling everything they ship and they need higher production, not before launch.

Man, you think you gave good possibilities. You thinking it is a good reason doesn't make it a good reason. Those you gave would surpass a 5M storing cost.

Yes preparing and after launch are different, with before launch usually being even slower than after launch. But you are yet to explain how would Nintendo suddenly be able to make 4M consoles when they couldn't make 2M (that sold out instantly) and took 8 months to improve production. Also you won't be able to explain why hold 8 months to a launch to have that many consoles.

I did gave you, again there is possibility they can maybe sell whole 30m, there is possibility we will again have Switch parts shortages, or that they currently have great deal for Switch parts. And again, ts not like they will produce 5m in one day and conserve them for next FY (lol), production is through the whole year, which means that if Nintendo observe that they need to slow down (or speed up) production, they can take appropriate action. All this are logical possibility, and nothing is set in stone. But like I alredy wrote to you, what ever suits you, you constantly ignoring points that I made, I am done here, you so you can continue with this alone..

Again, they never said they couldn't prepare more than 2m, fact is that their initial plan was 2m and they prepared 2m acording to their plan, and they actually shipped at end of March 700k more units. If plan and contracts from start were 4m instead 2m, they could prepare that. Problem with production is to increase production from numbers you already have according to plan and contracts.



Miyamotoo said:
Intrinsic said:

you reaally don'yt know how console launches work do you?

ok, indulge me.... if nintendo just decided to prepare only 2M for launch even if they could have made double that..... why didn't they ramp up production anytime during the next 6 months after launch when the console was still in short supply?

And you do know that none of these companies are ever in a position to start manufacturing months ahead of time and just stockpiling the hardware right? It just doesn't work that way. Think of it this way, these things are "stored" when they are on the sea making their trip from factory to retailer. 

I could say same thing for you.

Because preparing stock for launch from initial stock plan is not same like ramping up production after launch. I mean they made contract something similar like this, to produce and to prepare 2m consoles for launch, and then after launch producing around 500k consoles per month. But if contract and plan from start was something like, 4m for launch and than after launch producing 1m per month that we probably wouldn't had stock problems. So my point is simple, if actual launch was during holiday season, plan from start (so we dont talking here about increasing production because we talking about initial plan) could be easily be to produce and prepare 4m consoles for launch. Ofcourse if Nintendo were aiming for holiday launch they would aim from start around 4m consoles for launch instead 2m, because they know they would easily much more consoles during holiday season compared to mauch.

lol thats not true at all, ps2, 360, ps4 and wii, all were sold out at launch, just because your launching during the holidays doesn't mean they will ample stock, infact its pretty damn rare.



Intrinsic said:
Miyamotoo said:

I could say same thing for you.

Because preparing stock for launch from initial stock plan is not same like ramping up production after launch. I mean they made contract something similar like this, to produce and to prepare 2m consoles for launch, and then after launch producing around 500k consoles per month. But if contract and plan from start was something like, 4m for launch and than after launch producing 1m per month that we probably wouldn't had stock problems. So my point is simple, if actual launch was during holiday season, plan from start (so we dont talking here about increasing production because we talking about initial plan) could be easily be to produce and prepare 4m consoles for launch. Ofcourse if Nintendo were aiming for holiday launch they would aim from start around 4m consoles for launch instead 2m, because they know they would easily much more consoles during holiday season compared to mauch.

Ok... so basically the meat of your argument is that nintendo

 

  1. would have sold more consoles if they released in november.
  2. that would have been possible because knowing they were releasing in november they would have made more consoles than they made.
  3. they couldn't ramp up production for the 6 months after that because of deals they made prior to launch.......
ok..... got you. lets just agree to disagree then. Because all of a sudden you seem to have been that fly on the wall when nintendo made their initial plan.... as opposed to going with facts of not just what has happened but what has happened during every single console launch over the last 3 decades.
I give up.

 

Lol, but its same thing with evre console over last 3 decades, evre console holder know they will sell more consoles if they launch consoles during holiday season compared to any other date (there is reason why most of launches were during holiday season), and that's why companies preparing less units for launch if launch is outside of holiday season. We talking about clear math here.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 16 November 2017

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quickrick said:
Miyamotoo said:

I could say same thing for you.

Because preparing stock for launch from initial stock plan is not same like ramping up production after launch. I mean they made contract something similar like this, to produce and to prepare 2m consoles for launch, and then after launch producing around 500k consoles per month. But if contract and plan from start was something like, 4m for launch and than after launch producing 1m per month that we probably wouldn't had stock problems. So my point is simple, if actual launch was during holiday season, plan from start (so we dont talking here about increasing production because we talking about initial plan) could be easily be to produce and prepare 4m consoles for launch. Ofcourse if Nintendo were aiming for holiday launch they would aim from start around 4m consoles for launch instead 2m, because they know they would easily much more consoles during holiday season compared to mauch.

lol thats not true at all, ps2, 360, ps4 and wii, all were sold out at launch, just because your launching during the holidays doesn't mean they will ample stock, infact its pretty damn rare.

I don't see how what you wrote has anything with what I wrote. Point that all those consoles wouldn't had so great launch sales if they were launched outside holiday season.



Miyamotoo said:
quickrick said:

lol thats not true at all, ps2, 360, ps4 and wii, all were sold out at launch, just because your launching during the holidays doesn't mean they will ample stock, infact its pretty damn rare.

I don't see how what you wrote has anything with what I wrote. Point that all those consoles wouldn't had so great launch sales if they were launched outside holiday season.

3 of those consoles had shit launch sales though, except for ps4 but even that wasn't great when you consider it sold out in 24 hours 1.3 million units in november it had nothing to with the holidays.  



quickrick said:
Miyamotoo said:

I don't see how what you wrote has anything with what I wrote. Point that all those consoles wouldn't had so great launch sales if they were launched outside holiday season.

3 of those consoles had shit launch sales though, except for ps4 but even that wasn't great when you consider it sold out in 24 hours 1.3 million units in november it had nothing to with the holidays.  

PS4 was launched on 15. November, I am pretty sure lotsa people used their holiday money for PS4 purchase. I mean even Wii U thats worst selling Nintendo console ever, had good launch because holiday season, but right away after holiday season it started selling catastrophic.



Miyamotoo said:
quickrick said:

lol thats not true at all, ps2, 360, ps4 and wii, all were sold out at launch, just because your launching during the holidays doesn't mean they will ample stock, infact its pretty damn rare.

I don't see how what you wrote has anything with what I wrote. Point that all those consoles wouldn't had so great launch sales if they were launched outside holiday season.

And from what data do you affirm that please ? It's just an assumption from you without existing possible fact.

Sorry, but since the start of this talk you only keep proving me that you don't know how these things work.



quickrick said:
Miyamotoo said:

I don't see how what you wrote has anything with what I wrote. Point that all those consoles wouldn't had so great launch sales if they were launched outside holiday season.

3 of those consoles had shit launch sales though, except for ps4 but even that wasn't great when you consider it sold out in 24 hours 1.3 million units in november it had nothing to with the holidays.  

I don't care about all of this discussion (even if, SPOILER, holidays of cuorse matter for console sales... like wtf i can't believe you are aldo discussing this lol), but can you AT LEAST use the right numbers?

PS4 sold 1.14 million in November NPD 2013 (all month, not 24h), and 860k in December. I have no idea where that 1.3 million is coming from.