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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 VS Switch lifetime sales, which console will sell the most?

 

What do you expect?

NSW will win by a huge margin 53 16.06%
 
NSW will win by a small margin 75 22.73%
 
PS4 will win by a small margin 75 22.73%
 
PS4 will win by a huge margin 117 35.45%
 
Sorry, no troll XB1 option. :P Oh wait... 10 3.03%
 
Total:330
fatslob-:O said:

The first Zelda entry on the same platform can handily be called system sellers but as for the second Zelda, not so much ... 

Yet the 4th, 5th, 6th Call of Duty or FIFA on a console is a system seller..........



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Lawlight said:
Miyamotoo said:

No but you have now you have PlayStation 4 Slim 1TB Console - Star Wars Battlefront II Bundle for $299.

The Star Wars bundle isn’t out yet and as I said there were 3 PS4 Slim 1TB console left in stock. Now there’s 1 left in stock.

It doesn't matter, bundle will be out in 4 days, fact is that you buy PS4 1TB bundle with brand new game for $299.



fatslob-:O said:
Miyamotoo said:

Yes it was available in September (just for record September was last month of last quarter for which we get last official numbers from Nintendo so I dont see from where you have 3 monts), but also was out of stock very often, hardly that Mario Odyssey bundle was active just for one week (lol), it will most likely be active bundle at least during holiday season also, and its out of stock on Amazaon bascily from Mario Odyssey launch. Of Course this is just for US, in Japan currently is still supply constrained, and Switch yet need to be launch in new territories like South Korea and Taiwan and later probably China.

Second 3D Zelda doesnt need to have effect like Zelda BotW (and hardly it can achieve that), but its system seller game and big game in any case. We also have first time hybrid console and unified platform, now we have 3D Mario game in 8. month of console on market, remember SMG2 was relased only 2.5 years after SMG1, so we are definatly getting onother 3D Mario game for Switch. Yes they capitalizing on hardware sales with remaster of previous Mario Kart game, and most likly we are getting MK9 on Switch also. Pokemon game is realasing on around evre 1-2 years, 3DS had 4 difrent Pokemon games, so its safe to say that Switch will have at least 2-3 difrent Switch games Also there other potential strong existing and active IPs or old IPs that could come back, or totaly new ones.

I was thinking strong exclusives in vein of Bayonetta 2, Switch will definitely have much more similar exclusives that will attract more non-Nintendo fans.

We are definitely getting new IPs, Nintendo confirmed that. There will definitely be at least one revision but most likly there will more difrent revisions (smaller, cheaper Switch Mini/Pocket is almost certain moment 3DS dies, Switch XL/Pro is also posible, same like Switch Home Only...), Switch will most likly be family of Switch systems similar like 3DS, also Switch will probably have different addons, VR/AR addon, controllers addons..

In other words, Nintendo will not have any problems with keeping momentum with new big games and some Switch revisions, with only one platform they need to support, that will be much easier that it was with 3DS/WiiU.

The first Zelda entry on the same platform can handily be called system sellers but as for the second Zelda, not so much ... 

Yeah, as for strong exclusives like Bayonetta 2 I cannot see Nintendo securing those relatively high production value games as exclusives without paying third party developers in the vast majority of instances ... (high production value games cost a lot to make these days and just as the era of exclusives came to an end for western developers when costs spiraled out of control, the same will happen or already is happening for japanese developers so exclusivity will be few and far in between for the Switch just as it was when the 3DS was coming off it's predecessor) 

Revisions will probably be only as frequent as the advances in transistor technology and the Switch being more powerful than it's predecessors could easily offset Nintendo's combined development resources ... (the only reason Nintendo was able to put as many games as possible on the 3DS was that it technologically lagged so it didn't take much for developers to be content in the technical aspect) 

Nintendo was barely able to push out 10 AAA titles on the WII U, imagine them pushing twice as many AAA games on a more powerful system ... 

Every strong/big game is potential system seller, that espacily goes for 3D Zelda beacuse they are always one of biggest and strongest games on system, especially when we know that Zelda BotW was also released on Wii U also and that could be played via emulator on PC.

But in case of Bayonetta 2 Nintendo paid for development, and that wasnt only case, we also had Wonderful 101 and Fatal Frame V, so you can bet that Switch will have much more titles like those. Remember, Bandai Namco already anancued 3 Switch exclusives for next year, Platinium also said they are working on "intresting" game for Switch so it's possible that's also exclusive game, and dont forget that we already had games like Mario Rabbids and FE Warriors this year.

16nm Tegra become already available on market. Offcourse that point that Switch XL/Pro will be more powerful wouldnt easily offset Nintendo's combined development resources, nothing will relly change, we will have just higher resolution probably, I mean look PS4 Pro for comparison nothing didn't really changed. In any case is much easier to support just one platform than two totally different platforms, you need think only about one lineup of games.

But you realise while Nintendo was supporting Wii U they gave very strong support in same time to 3DS (actualy stronger than they gave to Wii U), basically they resources were divided, not to mention that Wii U was fail and had short life span, so they didnt want to invest too much in Wii U. And you do realise that Switch in first 9 months on market will have 5 AAA Nintendo games (Zelda BotW, MK8D, Splatoon2, Mario Odyssey and Xenoblade2)!? You need to start realising, hole Nintendo with all their recources, all teams (1st party, 2nd party and exclusive 3rd parties), undivided, making games just for one platform. Its very obvious that Switch will have very strong and great support from Nintendo suport with strong and great game, there is reason why Switch has killer 9 monts on market, and Nintendo already said they will continue momentum with strong and good games and after this year, that's actually there one of priorities with Switch.

 

Your points really don't have too much sense, I am not sure there is sense to continue to reply to you.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 13 November 2017

torok said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

The point is, for the next 3 years Switch is not gonna sell 10% more than PS4. More like 100% to 300% more lol

PS4 is on track to a good 19M this year. Even with a big drop, PS4 would safely do 15M next year. Let's say 12 and 9 in the next 2 years, totaling 36M. And that's actually pretty, pretty low. So you're saying that in the same time frame the Switch would do between 72M (100% more) and 144M (300%)?

That's an average between 24M and 48M per year. The Wii had a peak year of 24M, the PS2 had 21M. To have an average equal to Wii's best the Switch would probably have to peak at 30M. Either that or you're predicting PS4 sales to fall from a cliff.

 

Kyuu said:
RolStoppable said:

I don't think there will be much demand to play old games on a handheld and at the same time it's hard to imagine that Sony or third parties would make new games for a portable PS4. Being more powerful than Switch isn't going to be a real selling point either, because that's what every competitor of Nintendo has done in the handheld market. So a portable PS4 is unlikely to have a significant impact on Switch sales.

Assuming that Nintendo goes bonkers and cuts the Switch's life short, then sure, that will have a significant impact on lifetime sales. Placing a bet on the timing of stupidity is very random though. Stupidity on Nintendo's part can't be ruled out, I'll give you that.

Sony and third parties wouldn't have to develop games for it specifically, since it's practically a PS4 SKU much like the Pro, except with the ability to use it on the go. The downside is that it won't have a Bluray drive. Sony will need to convince third parties to patch their games down to 720p in order to shrink file size. And I know it would have little to no effect on Switch performance, but it makes you wonder how much it helps PS4 sales, especially in Japan.

Ryng_Tolu said:

The point is, for the next 3 years Switch is not gonna sell 10% more than PS4. More like 100% to 300% more lol

You're a funny man Ryng. Not like this is the first or second time you get too excited with your predictions. Nothing guarantees Switch outselling PS4 next year, let alone by 100% to 300% Unless you mean the accumulated sales of the three next years which makes your prediction slightly less silly , assuming PS4 does arrive in 2019 or early 2020.

I already explained what i mean, don't know how people still don't understand.

That user was talking about weekly sales, not yearly sales. My point is that, for the next 3 years, there are gonna be A LOT of weeks where Switch sells double or quadruple than PS4, and of course 2018 and 2020 will be very difference, 2018 will see some x2 weeks, 2020 will see many others x4 or x5 weeks.

Overall, i never said YEARLY sales will be double or quadruple. For 2018, just for be clear, i expect 25 million Switch and 18 million units PS4, so nothing close to double.



Miyamotoo said:
quickrick said:

switch year one will be its best, because its releasing all it's big franchises, and because excluding the wii. nintendo home consoles since the 3d era sell there best  the first year. 

This statement is wrong in every way, first Nintendo did not released all its big franchises, second Switch is not home console its a hybrid, and at end Switch will without problem surprise first year on market especially because most of first year Switch is supply constrained.

 

quickrick said: 

i don't see anything touching this year for a few reasons. they released there next console and handheld, and nintendo home consoles typically sell best in there first year in the 3d era with exception being the wii. so that will give a nice boost over 3ds sales this year, then you have the highest rated zelda game since OOT, highest rated mario ever, mario kart, and splatton 2 which is a phenomena in japan, the majority of nintedo fans would have already picked up or wanna pick a switch  this year, but well see ill happily eat crow.

But you do realise that Switch most of this year (and still is Japan) was hevily suply contrained, you do realise that Switch isn't home console that is handheld in same time (hybrid), you do realise that Switch will have big system seller games in folowing years also, and you do realise that not only Nintendo fans are buying Switch and that with time more and more people that are not typical Nintendo fans will bouth Switch!?

until we see third party games start selling, i believe it's mostly nintendo fans buying, along with some core gamers, if it continues strong next year i'll happily eat crow.



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quickrick said:
Miyamotoo said:

This statement is wrong in every way, first Nintendo did not released all its big franchises, second Switch is not home console its a hybrid, and at end Switch will without problem surprise first year on market especially because most of first year Switch is supply constrained.

 

But you do realise that Switch most of this year (and still is Japan) was hevily suply contrained, you do realise that Switch isn't home console that is handheld in same time (hybrid), you do realise that Switch will have big system seller games in folowing years also, and you do realise that not only Nintendo fans are buying Switch and that with time more and more people that are not typical Nintendo fans will bouth Switch!?

until we see third party games start selling, i believe it's mostly nintendo fans buying, along with some core gamers, if it continues strong next year i'll happily eat crow.

So do you think Nintendo fans alone bought 70 million 3DS consoles? Or do you think 3DS actually had better third party support than Switch?



StarDoor said:
quickrick said:

until we see third party games start selling, i believe it's mostly nintendo fans buying, along with some core gamers, if it continues strong next year i'll happily eat crow.

So do you think Nintendo fans alone bought 70 million 3DS consoles? Or do you think 3DS actually had better third party support than Switch?

we are in different times, handheld market was  huge, lastgen we saw it go from 230 million to 85 million. I believe it will continue to decline because of mobile entertainment/gaming being much bigger now, 3ds best years was the best sales wise. while the second year was close, then it started slowing down.



quickrick said:
Miyamotoo said:

This statement is wrong in every way, first Nintendo did not released all its big franchises, second Switch is not home console its a hybrid, and at end Switch will without problem surprise first year on market especially because most of first year Switch is supply constrained.

 

But you do realise that Switch most of this year (and still is Japan) was hevily suply contrained, you do realise that Switch isn't home console that is handheld in same time (hybrid), you do realise that Switch will have big system seller games in folowing years also, and you do realise that not only Nintendo fans are buying Switch and that with time more and more people that are not typical Nintendo fans will bouth Switch!?

until we see third party games start selling, i believe it's mostly nintendo fans buying, along with some core gamers, if it continues strong next year i'll happily eat crow.

You must have missed it when Ubisoft, Take-Two, Capcom, Konami, Namco, and dozens of indies have talked about their games doing well on Switch thus far.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Ryng_Tolu said:

I already explained what i mean, don't know how people still don't understand.

That user was talking about weekly sales, not yearly sales. My point is that, for the next 3 years, there are gonna be A LOT of weeks where Switch sells double or quadruple than PS4, and of course 2018 and 2020 will be very difference, 2018 will see some x2 weeks, 2020 will see many others x4 or x5 weeks.

Overall, i never said YEARLY sales will be double or quadruple. For 2018, just for be clear, i expect 25 million Switch and 18 million units PS4, so nothing close to double.

Oh, indeed I misunderstood your previous post and missed your other answers. These kind of differences in weekly sales is reasonable. I would also not be surprised with PS4 doing 18M next year. I do, however, think that Switch doing 25M next year is a bit far fetched since it would have to break the record of the Wii and that would not even be its peak year. But I wouldn't be surprised if it outsells PS4 in 2018. Only after Nintendo figures out their stock issues we will be able to predict it.

And even if it did, it would have to beat PS4 in the long run and legs tend to favor Sony a lot. But I think these two will have comparable sales, probably sitting on the same tier in your initial post.



zorg1000 said:
quickrick said:

until we see third party games start selling, i believe it's mostly nintendo fans buying, along with some core gamers, if it continues strong next year i'll happily eat crow.

You must have missed it when Ubisoft, Take-Two, Capcom, Konami, Namco, and dozens of indies have talked about their games doing well on Switch thus far.

ubi soft got huge sales thanks to using using the mario franchise. what else sold? dragonball sold ok, and street fighter did good, but i'm talking about games that can do 2-3 million, your talking about 2-500k titles which is nothing, compared games like destiny, COD, wildlands, fifa, madden, ass creed origins. has a third party game even crossed a million on switch yet.  

Last edited by quickrick - on 13 November 2017