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Forums - Sales Discussion - 67.5M PS4 shipped. 4.2M in Q2. Forecast for FY raised

JRPGfan on 31 October 2017
pitzy272 said:
postofficebuddy said:
IIRC there were some people here who still thought PS4 wouldn't hit 100 million lifetime as recently as May. Sales would have to drop like a rock for that to happen at this point.

Some people on here said PS4 would NEVER reach 100 million! And that was just like 6mo ago. 

March next year, it ll be over 80m shipped probably, and you ll still find people going "nope, its never going over 100m".



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zorg1000 on 31 October 2017
GhaudePhaede010 said:
This is great. First Nintendo, now Sony. When will we hear from Microsoft?

I think all we heard from MS about gaming is that revenue is up 5% YOY or something like that.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

JRPGfan on 31 October 2017
zorg1000 said:
GhaudePhaede010 said:
This is great. First Nintendo, now Sony. When will we hear from Microsoft?

I think all we heard from MS about gaming is that revenue is up 5% YOY or something like that.

Yeah but hardware revenue is down 48% YOY.

And gameing revenue includes odd things like pc,mobile,surfacepro, multiplats like minecraft ect.



Kerotan on 31 October 2017
Lawlight said:
postofficebuddy said:
IIRC there were some people here who still thought PS4 wouldn't hit 100 million lifetime as recently as May. Sales would have to drop like a rock for that to happen at this point.

From September 2015:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=208434

How some people thought it would only sell 80M is beyond me.

That thread  needs to be bumped and crow served.

Miyamotoo said:
Tmfwang said:

*2018

 

Lawlight said:

It could be but I think the PS4 will drop to $200 next year and with GoW, Spiderman, RDR2 and TLoU2, I think 2018 might just be the peak year. We’ll see. I think Detroit and Ghost of Tsushima will be big too.

 

We will see, it's definitely this or next one.

If it hits 80m by fiscal year 2017 which is march next year then it should hit 100m by fiscal year 2018 which is march 2019. It will have many megatons release in that time and price cuts to ps4 slim, pro and psvr.  I just can't see it needing to wait until holiday 2019. Ps4 is a beast and it ain't slowing down.

Zekkyou said:
zorg1000 said:
Yesterday we got news of Nintendo kicking ass and now we find out Playstation is kicking ass as well, good news!!!

It's nice seeing it happen relatively independently too. We normally only see this kind of two-lane market with home consoles vs handheld, which makes me think the PS4 has maintained its grip on the home console market, and the Switch is predominantly pulling in and slightly re-shaping the handheld market. Works out pretty nicely for both Sony and Nintendo.

Yeah they must be both delighted to be posting numbers so big and not eating each others pie. A duopoly in the console market between ninty and Sony is best imo. 



LivingMetal on 31 October 2017
JRPGfan said:
zorg1000 said:

I think all we heard from MS about gaming is that revenue is up 5% YOY or something like that.

Yeah but hardware revenue is down 48% YOY.

And gameing revenue includes odd things like pc,mobile,surfacepro, multiplats like minecraft ect.

So can we count the Xbox as a non-factor at this point that probably really doesn't matter?



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JRPGfan on 31 October 2017
LivingMetal said:
JRPGfan said:

Yeah but hardware revenue is down 48% YOY.

And gameing revenue includes odd things like pc,mobile,surfacepro, multiplats like minecraft ect.

So can we count the Xbox as a non-factor at this point that probably really doesn't matter?

It still matters... its just not having a great year.

Maybe Xbox One X really can turn things around for them? you can hope for that, I Just dont think it will.



Lawlight on 31 October 2017

I think they will hit around 95M by the end of FY2019 and 105M by the end of FY2020.



JRPGfan on 31 October 2017
Lawlight said:
I think they will hit around 95M by the end of FY2019 and 105M by the end of FY2020.

Lets say by march 2018 (FY2017 end) they are at 80m (they pass their 79m goal).

Then the go onto have another 18m or so year,.... by March 2019 (FY2018's end) they should be around ~98m.

So by Q2 2019, PS4 could/should be over 100m.

Holidays 2019 + 2020.....


Im pretty sure PS4 hits 120m+ lifetime numbers.



DonFerrari on 31 October 2017
JRPGfan said:
pitzy272 said:

Some people on here said PS4 would NEVER reach 100 million! And that was just like 6mo ago. 

March next year, it ll be over 80m shipped probably, and you ll still find people going "nope, its never going over 100m".

Well there were a guy quoted for saying it won't cross 75M sales when it was over 60M... talk about crazy.

JRPGfan said:
zorg1000 said:

I think all we heard from MS about gaming is that revenue is up 5% YOY or something like that.

Yeah but hardware revenue is down 48% YOY.

And gameing revenue includes odd things like pc,mobile,surfacepro, multiplats like minecraft ect.

Holy smokes, 48% drop is expressive... and MS is master on mixing things to ofuscate what they don't wan't exposed.

Lawlight said:
I think they will hit around 95M by the end of FY2019 and 105M by the end of FY2020.

Do you think we are going from 3 straight years almost on 20M to 16M and 10M before PS5 release?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari on 31 October 2017
Hiku said:
Lawlight said:

Didn't RyngTolu predict that the PS4 will top out at 90M?

That's what RyngTolu told me as well last I had that discussion with him. But I found that his reasoning had some errors that I pointed out. In particular how he compared it to the PS3 but got the dates wrong on how long it took for PS3 to get its Slim model, when sales started to dip, when it was replaced, etc).
The numbers did not line up with what he said about PS4 (he was off by a year or two iirc) and I pointed that out to him. But he didn't respond to me after I did, so I don't know if he read it, or changed his mind, etc.

Maybe he didn't want to admit his mistake.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."