From September 2015:
How some people thought it would only sell 80M is beyond me.
Well that at least were 2 years ago or more so we can accept they being wrong (even if so much).
I can do one better. Predict When will PS4 Outsell Wii
Only 4 months ago people saying PS4 would never outsell the Wii, and probably a lot who said that still believe it now.
That is trully crazy prediction being already close to 70M at the moment.
I think Alex The Hedgehog is a winner there. Not only did he predict that the PS4 will never outsell the Wii, he predicted 75M lifetime sales.
How he achieved that? Sony stop selling PS4 this holiday?
Yes, they are. Nintendo is too with their new forecasts. They are predictions that MUST be met at any costs. Annoucing predictions and failling to meet them is a terrible prospect. So when tehse companies rise their forecasts, it's because they know they will make it without breaking a sweat. Actually, it's just because they notice that their previous forecast would be pathetically low.
So, more than 20M is a total given. They are most likely aiming at 21 or 22M right now.
There is a possibility that sony to oversell the 19M, but they don't really lowball. They do a prediction with a high level of confidence to hit but not a low ball, it just happen that Sony on PS4 have done the initial forecast very conservative and when correcting they were always putting it a little higher.
I don't think Sony uses that tactic - they've always met their expectations.
This gen they have often reviewed their forecast up on several quarters. So it's possible that they end up at 20M, 21M I think is unlikely.
It's nice seeing it happen relatively independently too. We normally only see this kind of two-lane market with home consoles vs handheld, which makes me think the PS4 has maintained its grip on the home console market, and the Switch is predominantly pulling in and slightly re-shaping the handheld market. Works out pretty nicely for both Sony and Nintendo.
Or Nintendo really dig a new niche where Cell and Pads competition for the HH is deterred and also the console hungry also doesn't go deep. If their hybrid have almost all the benefits of HH while also attaining some of the console, plus being Nintendo then it have a second breath for HH.
Perhaps Sony will look at it for the next gen to have their PS5 and their PS5 hybrid.
duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"
Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"