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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Extra Bold: Super Mario Odyssey Will Ship+digital 20mil Lifetime! (17.4mil Currently)

Jumpin on 01 November 2017
tbone51 said:
Jumpin said:
Breath of the Wild has a much wider appeal than other 3D Zeldas did. It did something different and interesting to expand the people interested in it. It also has social-media with thousands of people sharing to millions of others about how much fun they're having with Zelda. doing all this really cool stuff

Super Mario Odyssey doesn't have that advantage. As sc94597 above points out, games do have their saturation points regardless of how well hardware sells, or how fast the software sells. We've seen Final Fantasy games sell most of what they're ever going to sell in a 1 day period.

Comparing FF to Mario in terms of legs was your mistake. If you think they Are comparable your surely mistaken


The point is the outstanding day one sales recent FF games didn't mean they were going to vastly outsell all past Final Fantasy games. Final Fantasy was an obvious example, and that's why I used it. Unless you can prove that bigger day 1 sales = bigger overall sales in the Mario franchise, then the comparison is apt.

Last edited by Jumpin - on 01 November 2017

I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

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HyrulianScrolls on 01 November 2017

If the game does do 15-20m lifetime, it will be interesting to see how it affects the industry. The 3d platformer has never caught on in sales to that magnitude in two decades that they've been around, 12m or so has been the ceiling. The industry has had 2d platformers, RPGs, sports, racers, shooters, sims, sandbox, educational, and puzzle titles all hit the 15m+ mark before. But not the 3d platformer. So I wonder if we will start to see a big renaissance and flooding of 3d platformers from both Nintendo and other developers if Odyssey sells on that level?

Last edited by HyrulianScrolls - on 01 November 2017

couchmonkey on 01 November 2017

15 million tops, probably more like in line with Super Mario Galaxy and Super Mario 64.



tbone51 on 01 November 2017
Jumpin said:
tbone51 said:

Comparing FF to Mario in terms of legs was your mistake. If you think they Are comparable your surely mistaken


The point is the outstanding day one sales recent FF games didn't mean they were going to vastly outsell all past Final Fantasy games. Final Fantasy was an obvious example, and that's why I used it. Unless you can prove that bigger day 1 sales = bigger overall sales in the Mario franchise, then the comparison is apt.

Oh got ya. Srry misunderstood. I agree on that (look at pokemon BW for example)

 

That said smo will be like botw in regards to its own franchise. Itll outdo the norm on a hot console and will imo outsell galaxy game comfortably. 

Only way for it to slow is if a smo2 is announced



Ryng on 01 November 2017
sc94597 said:

All games have their saturation point. Just because it is the fastest selling within the current time interval (when people are starved for new Switch games, as the platform is pretty new and active) does not mean the trend will continue. There is a limit to the number of people 3D Mario appeals to, and I expect that to be comparable to Super Mario Galaxy's sales. Especially as the Switch has a much stronger library over time. Super Mario Odyssey might outsell galaxy, but I don't suspect it will do it by more than two million. Hence "fifteen million is possible (not probably, but not highly unlikely.) 

There is really no reason to think that just because it is the fastest selling (up until now) that it will continue to outpace the rest of the series at the current rate.  

Same thing for Breath of the Wild, although in BoTW's case the conventions were change much more significantly than in SMO's.

The problem with what you said is that Mario saturation is WAY bigger than what you point out. You really believe 15 million may be the maximum?

Dude Mario is a series with some 30-40 million seller, withouth counting just how insane the brand popolarity is. Even moms, dads, grandmothers know Mario, the peack that Mario can reach is absolutely HUGE.

If Zelda can surpass 10 million units, possible 12 million, you seriusly think the peak for Mario is 15 million? Then you severly underestimate this game.

 

Like i said, anything less than Galaxy is an extremely unrealistic prediction. 15 million as well, looks pretty safe. 20 million is definitively possible to reach.



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Jumpin on 01 November 2017

Actually, now that I think about it. The handheld potential of the Switch IS a huge game changer. Super Mario 3D Land sold 11 million units, and Odyssey is a much more appealing title. It might also explain part of the reason Breath of the Wild's current trending toward being the highest selling Zelda of all time; as Phantom Hourglass and the Ocarina of Time remake each sold 5M units, both of them top 5 in franchise history, despite their obvious disadvantages.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

StarDoor on 01 November 2017
Jumpin said:
tbone51 said:

Comparing FF to Mario in terms of legs was your mistake. If you think they Are comparable your surely mistaken


The point is the outstanding day one sales recent FF games didn't mean they were going to vastly outsell all past Final Fantasy games. Final Fantasy was an obvious example, and that's why I used it. Unless you can prove that bigger day 1 sales = bigger overall sales in the Mario franchise, then the comparison is apt.

This isn't true everywhere, but bigger day 1 sales do indicate bigger lifetime sales in Japan.

New Super Mario Bros: 6.50M (910k) (17 months)
New Super Mario Bros. Wii: 4.70M (944k) (36 months)
New Super Mario Bros. 2: 2.57M (423k) (17 months)
New Super Mario Bros. U: 1.30M (167k) (0 months)

Super Mario 3D Land: 2.15M (342k) (9 months)
Super Mario Galaxy: 1.20M (260k) (11 months)
Super Mario Galaxy 2: 0.98M (340k) (41 months)
Super Mario 3D World: 0.76M (102k) (11 months)

Last edited by StarDoor - on 01 November 2017

Jumpin on 01 November 2017
StarDoor said:
Jumpin said:


The point is the outstanding day one sales recent FF games didn't mean they were going to vastly outsell all past Final Fantasy games. Final Fantasy was an obvious example, and that's why I used it. Unless you can prove that bigger day 1 sales = bigger overall sales in the Mario franchise, then the comparison is apt.

This isn't true everywhere, but bigger day 1 sales do indicate bigger lifetime sales in Japan.

New Super Mario Bros: 6.50M (910k)
New Super Mario Bros. Wii: 4.70M (944k)
New Super Mario Bros. 2: 2.57M (423k)
New Super Mario Bros. U: 1.30M (167k)

Super Mario 3D Land: 2.15M (342k)
Super Mario Galaxy: 1.20M (260k)
Super Mario Galaxy 2: 0.98M (340k)
Super Mario 3D World: 0.76M (102k)

Your stats actually show that it doesn't, though. Despite Super Mario Galaxy 2 having higher day 1 sales, they still hit the saturation point. Despite Super Mario 3D world having much lower day 1 sales, it still managed to get within range of the saturation point. Only Super Mario 3D Land sold high, and that game has another aspect about it (which I actually discuss above), that it is handheld.

I do think Super Mario Odyssey will sell higher than other 3D titles, but not because day 1 sales indicate it, but because Switch has handheld functionality.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

StarDoor on 01 November 2017
Jumpin said:
StarDoor said:

This isn't true everywhere, but bigger day 1 sales do indicate bigger lifetime sales in Japan.

New Super Mario Bros: 6.50M (910k)
New Super Mario Bros. Wii: 4.70M (944k)
New Super Mario Bros. 2: 2.57M (423k)
New Super Mario Bros. U: 1.30M (167k)

Super Mario 3D Land: 2.15M (342k)
Super Mario Galaxy: 1.20M (260k)
Super Mario Galaxy 2: 0.98M (340k)
Super Mario 3D World: 0.76M (102k)

Your stats actually show that it doesn't, though. Despite Super Mario Galaxy 2 having higher day 1 sales, they still hit the saturation point. Despite Super Mario 3D world having much lower day 1 sales, it still managed to get within range of the saturation point. Only Super Mario 3D Land sold high, and that game has another aspect about it (which I actually discuss above), that it is handheld.

I do think Super Mario Odyssey will sell higher than other 3D titles, but not because day 1 sales indicate it, but because Switch has handheld functionality.

Galaxy 2 launched 41 months after Wii did, while 3D World launched 11 months after Wii U. Everyone knows that launch sales make up a larger portion of lifetime sales as a console ages.

If you correct for launch date, first week sales almost perfectly explain the lifetime sales of a mainline Mario game. The R-squared value is over 95%, and the p-value is less than 0.0002.

Please don't go around saying what the stats do and don't show if you haven't actually analyzed them.



Jumpin on 01 November 2017
StarDoor said:
Jumpin said:

Your stats actually show that it doesn't, though. Despite Super Mario Galaxy 2 having higher day 1 sales, they still hit the saturation point. Despite Super Mario 3D world having much lower day 1 sales, it still managed to get within range of the saturation point. Only Super Mario 3D Land sold high, and that game has another aspect about it (which I actually discuss above), that it is handheld.

I do think Super Mario Odyssey will sell higher than other 3D titles, but not because day 1 sales indicate it, but because Switch has handheld functionality.

Galaxy 2 launched 41 months after Wii did, while 3D World launched 11 months after Wii U. Everyone knows that launch sales make up a larger portion of lifetime sales as a console ages.

If you correct for launch date, first week sales almost perfectly explain the lifetime sales of a mainline Mario game. The R-squared value is over 95%, and the p-value is less than 0.0002.

Please don't go around saying what the stats do and don't show if you haven't actually analyzed them.

You didn't bring up launch date in your initial argument. Also, where's your graph? Put it up. I'm not taking your word for this, nor am I going to redo the work for you. Assuming you've already done it. Lets see every Mario game fit this model.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.