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First charges filed in Mueller investigation

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Russian Roulette "winner"?

Paul Manafort 26 45.61%
 
Michael Flynn 10 17.54%
 
Jared Kushner 3 5.26%
 
Don Jr. 2 3.51%
 
Hillary Clinton 13 22.81%
 
Tony Podesta 3 5.26%
 
Total:57

I really don't understand much of this. A lot appears to be speculation. I'll wait until the investigation is concluded.



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StarOcean said:

Hit the nail on the head. Thats what they want to do w/ him. I think they'll dump him during the 2018 elections

Absolutely a possibility, though (and I feel more and more cynical the further I go into this x3 ) it's all going to come down to the probable backlash they'd receive if they dumped him. Trump is getting up there in years, has a terrible diet, doesn't exercise, etc, and despite all his golf trips is probably more stressed as President than he ever was as an eccentric, weird businessman, so it's possible health concerns will lead to him stepping down in 2018.

But barring that, I really don't think Trump cares any more about his party than they do about him; if they drop him, and he doesn't WANT to be dropped, he will absolutely go full scorched earth and take as many of his followers with him as possible. Jesus, back when Obama won his re-election, Trump was tweeting that people needed to 'march on Washington,' (irony,) but thankfully he was just a rich nut, not POTUS. If he pulls something similar again, he's going to get a lot more of a response from that band of people who support him, and the Republicans are distinctly aware of that. Now, those in well-entrenched states likely won't care, but those who are typically voted in on narrower margin will know that it doesn't necessarily matter if alienated Trump supporters don't go Democrat; all they might have to do is stop voting Republican to cost the Repubs their seat. And Trump, in his spite, will most certainly ensure that they do.

It's a... weird situation, to be honest. At this point the only thing I can stress is that everyone should take the mindset that a) Trump will run for re-election, and b) Trump could WIN that re-election, and act accordingly when the time comes. Vote, get those who plan to just stick around home because 'he couldn't possibly win again' to get up and ALSO vote, etc. The apathetic impression that Trump couldn't possibly win the first time helped contribute TO him winning, among other things. While it is always nice to hope that he'll somehow get knocked out of the running, ultimately the most effective measure one can take it a competitive, even pessimistic one; assume he COULD win, so you'll try ten times harder to make sure it won't happen.

End of the day, we might need to wait for the next elections to see just how much of an impact his bullshitting shenanigans have had on the American people as a whole. xP Though I do look forward to the prospect of hearing his supporters scream "HAX!" if he does lose. =P



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Unless He Forgets In Which Case Zanten, Forgetter Of The Things

Or He Procrascinates, In Which Case Zanten, Doer Of The Things Later

Or It Involves Moving Furniture, in Which Case Zanten, F*** You.

Locknuts said:
I really don't understand much of this. A lot appears to be speculation. I'll wait until the investigation is concluded.

It started off like that but as some people have mentioned, Trump sabatoged himself by firing Comey, the same person who was investigating Flynn who had already willfully lied to the FBI.  THis created an obstruction of Justice charge forthcoming against Trump.  Especially when Flynn was obviously guilty and the claims are that he already talked to the administration about that they knew he had lied.  

The short version goes like this:

Flynn, is working for government interests abroad including Russia and the Ukraine.  The FBI asks him if he had contacts with Russian during the campaign.  He lies.  Now they want to know what he was talking about when he lied.  They start to investigate.  Trump pulls Comey (former FBI director) aside and tells he to let Flynn go.  He doesn't.  Trump fires him (obstruction of Justice).  The special investigation finds that Flynn had infact broke the law and charges him and his son with possible 25 year sentences.  Flynn, pleads guilty, and is now working with the FBI. You see, he did speak with Russians during/after the election and made a deal with Russians to postpone retaliation for Obama's post election sanctions on Russia before he was even allowed to be acting as a US agent when another president still serving.  He lied about ever talking to them.  If was later revealed that a high ranking official knew about the meetings with Russia but also lied. 

These individuals include Jared Kushiner, Donald Junior, the former RCN chairmen and possibly more.  And they all lied to the FBI and Trump knew it when he committed suicide by trying to stop the FBI by firing Comey. It was about collusion but later became about straight obstruction of Justice.  Three other member of his campaign have already be charged with other crimes including money laundering, and conspiracy against the US.

So Trump took a bad situation and made it worse by attacking the FBI.  He broke the law and he will probably be charged.



Locknuts said:
I really don't understand much of this. A lot appears to be speculation. I'll wait until the investigation is concluded.

Flynn is already pleading guilty.  That's about as concluded as it is likely to get for him.  He also agreed to testify against others in the Trump transition team who allegedly ordered him to make contact with Russian government representatives, which would have been highly illegal as mentioned above. 

The speculation is, "Who gave the order?" 



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Final-Fan said:
Locknuts said:
I really don't understand much of this. A lot appears to be speculation. I'll wait until the investigation is concluded.

Flynn is already pleading guilty.  That's about as concluded as it is likely to get for him.  He also agreed to testify against others in the Trump transition team who allegedly ordered him to make contact with Russian government representatives, which would have been highly illegal as mentioned above. 

The speculation is, "Who gave the order?" 

Initial reports said Trump. Newer ones are saying it's actually Trump Jr who ordered it. Truth won't come out for a bit though



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StarOcean said:
Final-Fan said:

Flynn is already pleading guilty.  That's about as concluded as it is likely to get for him.  He also agreed to testify against others in the Trump transition team who allegedly ordered him to make contact with Russian government representatives, which would have been highly illegal as mentioned above. 

The speculation is, "Who gave the order?" 

Initial reports said Trump. Newer ones are saying it's actually Trump Jr who ordered it. Truth won't come out for a bit though

Interesting, haven't seen the Trump JR rumors. I've seen a lot of Kushner ones though.



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CosmicSex said:
Locknuts said:
I really don't understand much of this. A lot appears to be speculation. I'll wait until the investigation is concluded.

It started off like that but as some people have mentioned, Trump sabatoged himself by firing Comey, the same person who was investigating Flynn who had already willfully lied to the FBI.  THis created an obstruction of Justice charge forthcoming against Trump.  Especially when Flynn was obviously guilty and the claims are that he already talked to the administration about that they knew he had lied.  

The short version goes like this:

Flynn, is working for government interests abroad including Russia and the Ukraine.  The FBI asks him if he had contacts with Russian during the campaign.  He lies.  Now they want to know what he was talking about when he lied.  They start to investigate.  Trump pulls Comey (former FBI director) aside and tells he to let Flynn go.  He doesn't.  Trump fires him (obstruction of Justice).  The special investigation finds that Flynn had infact broke the law and charges him and his son with possible 25 year sentences.  Flynn, pleads guilty, and is now working with the FBI. You see, he did speak with Russians during/after the election and made a deal with Russians to postpone retaliation for Obama's post election sanctions on Russia before he was even allowed to be acting as a US agent when another president still serving.  He lied about ever talking to them.  If was later revealed that a high ranking official knew about the meetings with Russia but also lied. 

These individuals include Jared Kushiner, Donald Junior, the former RCN chairmen and possibly more.  And they all lied to the FBI and Trump knew it when he committed suicide by trying to stop the FBI by firing Comey. It was about collusion but later became about straight obstruction of Justice.  Three other member of his campaign have already be charged with other crimes including money laundering, and conspiracy against the US.

So Trump took a bad situation and made it worse by attacking the FBI.  He broke the law and he will probably be charged.

But didn't Trump fire Flynn for lying to Pence about the same thing? So this guy lied to everybody? 



Final-Fan said:
Locknuts said:
I really don't understand much of this. A lot appears to be speculation. I'll wait until the investigation is concluded.

Flynn is already pleading guilty.  That's about as concluded as it is likely to get for him.  He also agreed to testify against others in the Trump transition team who allegedly ordered him to make contact with Russian government representatives, which would have been highly illegal as mentioned above. 

The speculation is, "Who gave the order?" 

That's what I mean: It's not going to end with Flynn. 

But I thought Trump fired Flynn for lying to Pence about contact with the Russians. Now they think someone close to Trump gave the order? 



Locknuts said:
Final-Fan said:

Flynn is already pleading guilty.  That's about as concluded as it is likely to get for him.  He also agreed to testify against others in the Trump transition team who allegedly ordered him to make contact with Russian government representatives, which would have been highly illegal as mentioned above. 

The speculation is, "Who gave the order?" 

That's what I mean: It's not going to end with Flynn. 

But I thought Trump fired Flynn for lying to Pence about contact with the Russians. Now they think someone close to Trump gave the order? 

The devil's kind of in the details on this one, but of course it feels like it's been a million years since the original Flynn scandal, so here we go! *clears throat*

The original reports to the public on Flynn's communications with Kislyak, and his lies to the Vice President on their content, came from the media. (At the time I believe it was rumored, but not confirmed, that he had also lied to the FBI, though my memory could be leading me astray there.) Obviously this caused a great deal of political pressure, and public scrutiny, with regards to Flynn's position and the possibility that he'd been compromised. Trump finally did finally reportedly ask for Flynn's resignation. Ultimately, though, he seemed more irritated at the leaks that had led to the news report than anything Flynn himself had done; Spicer at one point made it clear that Trump did not believe Mr Flynn had breached law, and his being let go was more an issue of 'trust.'

But okay, Trump asks for his resignation after news of the problem broke, all was well... until a little later, when it emerged that Trump had actually already known about Flynn's lie quite a few days prior, and did dick all about it. It was flagged for his attention by at-the-time acting attorney general Sally Yates, who discovered the issue and informed Trump about it, largely because there was a risk that the falsehoods could make Flynn vulnerable to blackmail by a foreign power.

To be more specific, the Department of Justice made their report to Trump about Flynn on January 26th; Trump gets around to telling Pence about it around 11 days later, as the matter was starting to heat up in the public eye. On February 8th, Flynn flatly denied discussing Sanctions with Russia in response to reports given by various media outlets, only to change his answer to 'I don't remember' on the 9th when it was revealed U.S. intelligence had actually recorded the call. His resignation finally hit on February 13th, soon after fresh reports from the media discussed his communications with Kislyak, and detailed that he had 'misled' the Vice President about them.

The timing of it raised more than a few eyebrows, and asked a rather clear question; Trump knew what Flynn had done weeks before he finally fired the guy for it. So did Trump fire Flynn because of what he had done, or because too many people found out about it?

It's not like Trump is slow to pull the trigger when it comes to letting people go. (Just look at how fast he fired Yates when she wouldn't immediately defend his travel ban.) And yet ultimately he took absolutely forever to get Flynn's resignation, which came right around the time it became clear that Flynn wasn't going to be able to weasel out of this, and public scrutiny was nearing its peak.

***

Now, this is speculation on my part, obviously, but Flynn's statement would actually fit pretty well with how things went down back in February. Trump obviously wouldn't have had a 'trust issue' with Flynn if the man's actions were carried out at the behest of Trump's transition team. He would have known about it before Yates even made the report, and would know that Flynn was indeed loyal to him. As long as the press or public didn't get wind of it, both Flynn and Trump would have been better served just denying everything in the case of Flynn, and quietly sitting on the report without taking action in the case of Trump, which they both seemed prepared to do.

But then it got leaked to the press, and from there to the public, and finally Flynn's attempt to deny everything shriveled up in the face of the revelation the intelligence community actually had solid information on the details of his phone call. The situation ultimately became untenable; there would simply be no way to keep Flynn, with everyone KNOWING what he'd done, without raising some big questions about just why Trump was protecting him.

And so Trump finally asked for his resignation, but there were still loose ends. For one thing, there were agencies still digging into the details of just what Flynn had done, who he had done it for, etc, wanting to see just how deep the rabbit hole went. If said rabbit hole led to the doorstep of Trump's transition team or, God forbid, Trump himself... well, that would be REALLY bad for him. So Trump tried to quietly quash these efforts by, in at least one case, flatly telling Comey that he really hoped he'd just let Flynn go, and drop the investigation. Comey didn't, and Trump eventually fired him, a sequence of events that ironically led to the Mueller investigation, and brings us to where we are now.



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Unless He Forgets In Which Case Zanten, Forgetter Of The Things

Or He Procrascinates, In Which Case Zanten, Doer Of The Things Later

Or It Involves Moving Furniture, in Which Case Zanten, F*** You.

Locknuts said:
CosmicSex said:

It started off like that but as some people have mentioned, Trump sabatoged himself by firing Comey, the same person who was investigating Flynn who had already willfully lied to the FBI.  THis created an obstruction of Justice charge forthcoming against Trump.  Especially when Flynn was obviously guilty and the claims are that he already talked to the administration about that they knew he had lied.  

The short version goes like this:

Flynn, is working for government interests abroad including Russia and the Ukraine.  The FBI asks him if he had contacts with Russian during the campaign.  He lies.  Now they want to know what he was talking about when he lied.  They start to investigate.  Trump pulls Comey (former FBI director) aside and tells he to let Flynn go.  He doesn't.  Trump fires him (obstruction of Justice).  The special investigation finds that Flynn had infact broke the law and charges him and his son with possible 25 year sentences.  Flynn, pleads guilty, and is now working with the FBI. You see, he did speak with Russians during/after the election and made a deal with Russians to postpone retaliation for Obama's post election sanctions on Russia before he was even allowed to be acting as a US agent when another president still serving.  He lied about ever talking to them.  If was later revealed that a high ranking official knew about the meetings with Russia but also lied. 

These individuals include Jared Kushiner, Donald Junior, the former RCN chairmen and possibly more.  And they all lied to the FBI and Trump knew it when he committed suicide by trying to stop the FBI by firing Comey. It was about collusion but later became about straight obstruction of Justice.  Three other member of his campaign have already be charged with other crimes including money laundering, and conspiracy against the US.

So Trump took a bad situation and made it worse by attacking the FBI.  He broke the law and he will probably be charged.

But didn't Trump fire Flynn for lying to Pence about the same thing? So this guy lied to everybody? 

Yates warned the Trump team not to hire him before they did.  They told the Trump team he had inconsistencies in his FARA filing and that he was under investigation.  They did it anyway.   Thats why Trump fired Comey when the FBI refused to stop looking into FLynn.  The fact that he was guilty and Trump tried to stop the investigation makes this obstruction of Justice.  They Obama Administration went out of their way to warn the Trump team but they tried to circumvent the DOJ.  They only fired Flynn when the Washington Post revealed that he was under investigation.  Something they already knew.  

For clarity, Flynn was a USA operative that somehow got pulled in by the Russians.  Yates and her team tried to warn Trump that he had been compromised.  Normally, if someone tells you that you wouldn't hire them and you wouldn't try to stop the federal government from tracking him down.  This implicates that the team itself was also working with Russia or that they were all compromised.  

Trump could have avoided this in two ways:

One he could have never tried to make him the National Security Advisor.

Two he could have not fired the FBI director for trying to get to the bottom of it.

Flynn was also under investigation because the Ukraine, under Russia influence was trying to get someone they US was protecting extradited back to Ukraine.  Trying to do this, especially when there is another President overseeing internal affairs is very troublesome.  Flynn could have been in jail for decades but instead he gave something to Muller that we don't know yet.  The understanding is that Flynn implicated everyone for something else involving Russia.  That is the story so far.