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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - How many major exclusives does the Switch need to gain out each year to maintain popularity?

 

How many major exclusives will the Switch need per year?

1 11 4.33%
 
2 30 11.81%
 
3 88 34.65%
 
4 125 49.21%
 
Total:254
fatslob-:O said:
Peach_buggy said:

You only need to check Amazon,there's a thread right here that will tell you differently. The neon and grey are both selling over MRSP regularly in Amazon U.S., Amazon France and a few others. The stock situation never really caught up, when the Odyssey hype caught on and even though there seems to be massive stock in the U.S. it still sells out regularly, you gonna tell me that's not gonna harm sales, hmmm?

Pretty much a falsehood right there and if you wanted a unit with neon joycons so badly at MSRP you could just go to gamestop instead ... (There has been virtually no stock issue in Europe either for MONTHS now!) 

The fact is Switch's sell through rate is slowing down with respect to availability and that is a consistent view once we factor in that Switch's last big hardware pusher was Splatoon 2 which was nearly 3 months ago ... 

You are gonna tell me that the unavailabilty of neon stocks isn't affecting sales? You can CLEARLY see the Neons' position tumbles once the price goes over MRSP. I've clearly given you proof. You can obviously continue to go around with your eyes closed. Meanwhile, the Switch continues to obliterate all competition with or without stock on Amazon. October is going to be a massacre! As for Europe, it's plain to see that stock was only catching up within the last few WEEKS and now it's becoming scarce again thanks to SMO. As for Joe Public just "popping into Gamestop", have you considered that some people don't have all day to hunt for Switches? Unlike yourself who seems to have the whole day available to look for online arguments. Continue with your denials all you like, come October NPD we'll see who is laughing then!



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TallSilhouette said:
Two ~flagships per year with smaller/more niche games to supplement is good for any of the big 3. The Switch absolutely has that for their launch year with BotW and Odyssey but I wonder if they can maintain momentum throughout the years. They've been known to have major drought years in the past but maybe with all their studios and contracts consolidating onto one console that will be less of an issue.

Droughts like Wii U had kills console sales and loses built up momentum. Anything Nintendo can do to avoid that is a good thing. I'd say 3-4 major releases along with some smaller games throughout the year lets them build console sales and garner third party support. If I had one ask, it would be to produce more mid-to-upper tier M-rated games as well as the usual Nintendo fare (Mario/Zelda/DK/Pikmin/Star Fox/etc. Basically Nintendo's classic IPs).



Currently (Re-)Playing: Starcraft 2: Legacy of the Void Multiplayer, The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past

Currently Watching: The Shield, Stein's;Gate, Narcos

Maybe 2 major AAA really good titles and a remaster of a Wii U game per year is enough. Plus, all the "minor" first party games, like Kirby, Yoshi and stuff. That's more than Xbox have. But I'm thinking in BOTW and SMO level of major titles (for next year, maybe Pokemon and Metroid? Plus Donkey Kong Country Collection (Returns + Tropical Freeze).



Peach_buggy said:

You are gonna tell me that the unavailabilty of neon stocks isn't affecting sales? You can CLEARLY see the Neons' position tumbles once the price goes over MRSP. I've clearly given you proof. You can obviously continue to go around with your eyes closed. Meanwhile, the Switch continues to obliterate all competition with or without stock on Amazon. October is going to be a massacre! As for Europe, it's plain to see that stock was only catching up within the last few WEEKS and now it's becoming scarce again thanks to SMO. As for Joe Public just "popping into Gamestop", have you considered that some people don't have all day to hunt for Switches? Unlike yourself who seems to have the whole day available to look for online arguments. Continue with your denials all you like, come October NPD we'll see who is laughing then!

LOL, playing internet strongman now are we ? The only one's eyes closed are yours since you tirelessly ignore evidence like Trump does ... 

You say obliterate ALL COMPETITION but you just lied again when PS4 has been squashing the Switch so far for this entire calendar year ... (9.1M vs 6.1M units and the only months the Switch ever outsold the PS4 was it's launch month and the month after that which are March and April respectively even though PS4 had NOTHING to fall back on for late Q2/Q3 unlike MK8 and Splatoon 2 carrying the Switch this entire summer it STILL LOST to PS4 in it's slowest months) 

How does it feel to get your facts so wrong ? (And LOL @ 'some people don't have all day to hunt for Switches' or 'Unlike yourself who seems to have the whole day available to look for online arguments'. I only used one site to give me all the data I needed and how about you stop fabricating your arguments ?) 



fatslob-:O said:
Peach_buggy said:

You are gonna tell me that the unavailabilty of neon stocks isn't affecting sales? You can CLEARLY see the Neons' position tumbles once the price goes over MRSP. I've clearly given you proof. You can obviously continue to go around with your eyes closed. Meanwhile, the Switch continues to obliterate all competition with or without stock on Amazon. October is going to be a massacre! As for Europe, it's plain to see that stock was only catching up within the last few WEEKS and now it's becoming scarce again thanks to SMO. As for Joe Public just "popping into Gamestop", have you considered that some people don't have all day to hunt for Switches? Unlike yourself who seems to have the whole day available to look for online arguments. Continue with your denials all you like, come October NPD we'll see who is laughing then!

LOL, playing internet strongman now are we ? The only one's eyes closed are yours since you tirelessly ignore evidence like Trump does ... 

You say obliterate ALL COMPETITION but you just lied again when PS4 has been squashing the Switch so far for this entire calendar year ... (9.1M vs 6.1M units and the only months the Switch ever outsold the PS4 was it's launch month and the month after that which are March and April respectively even though PS4 had NOTHING to fall back on for late Q2/Q3 unlike MK8 and Splatoon 2 carrying the Switch this entire summer it STILL LOST to PS4 in it's slowest months) 

How does it feel to get your facts so wrong ? (And LOL @ 'some people don't have all day to hunt for Switches' or 'Unlike yourself who seems to have the whole day available to look for online arguments'. I only used one site to give me all the data I needed and how about you stop fabricating your arguments ?) 

https://venturebeat.com/2017/09/14/nintendo-switch-outsold-xbox-one-and-playstation-4-again-in-august/

All that's really holding the PS4 up right now is Europe, but it's crushing US and Japan.

Also comparing full calendar sales when Switch only launched in March; will you just use any data you can find to try and back up your exaggerated statements?

How about you just wait until Switch has gone through a whole year, or at least until after the holiday season where the real business end starts.



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Shaunodon said:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=230950

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=231578&page=1

https://venturebeat.com/2017/09/14/nintendo-switch-outsold-xbox-one-and-playstation-4-again-in-august/

All that's really holding the PS4 up right now is Europe, but it's crushing US and Japan.

Which doesn't change the conclusion but Europe isn't the only reason that PS4 is excelling, the rest of the world is buying PS4 too which has sold 3x as many Switch's so far this year ... (RotW contributed ~1.8M units of the 9.1M units sold on PS4 this year so while the PS4 is struggling in comparison to the Switch in Japan the platform still remains competitive in america but PS4 having a massive lead in two big markets compared to one for the Switch means that gap will remain comfortably in favour of the PS4 for the forseeable future) 

This is getting off topic anyways since this thread isn't about PS4 vs Switch sales ... 

Edit: Even without counting months before March, PS4 still beat Switch ... 



one big exclusive per season, unless they start to get the big 3rd party titles too



Muda Muda Muda Muda Muda Muda!!!!


fatslob-:O said:

Edit: Even without counting months before March, PS4 still beat Switch ... 

Yeah, but the comparison would be 6.7m(PS4) vs. 6.1m(Switch).

Going into the holiday season that difference is fairly negligible, and what may be Switch's biggest title is only dropping next week.

Lest we forget that Switch is only in it's first year as a system.



Shaunodon said:

Yeah, but the comparison would be 6.7m(PS4) vs. 6.1m(Switch).

Going into the holiday season that difference is fairly negligible, and what may be Switch's biggest title is only dropping next week.

Lest we forget that Switch is only in it's first year as a system.

You think PS4 won't increase that gap during holidays even when we're including the Switch's inflated honeymoon period where they released a flagship AAA system selling games every quarter so far while we're excluding PS4's first two months of this year ? Last holiday quarter PS4 sold OVER 9M units! 

If Nintendo's projection remains, they'll only ship 4M units for this quarter if they reached shipping 7M units at the end of September. Even making adjustments as high as 3M units for this quarter alone means that the Switch likely won't beat PS4 or even close the gap ... 

Anyways, this will be the last response regarding this matter since this is not the thread to be discussing about this subject ... 



fatslob-:O said:
Shaunodon said:

Yeah, but the comparison would be 6.7m(PS4) vs. 6.1m(Switch).

Going into the holiday season that difference is fairly negligible, and what may be Switch's biggest title is only dropping next week.

Lest we forget that Switch is only in it's first year as a system.

You think PS4 won't increase that gap during holidays even when were including the Switch's inflated honeymoon period where they released a flagship AAA system selling games every quarter so far while we're excluding PS4's first two months of this year ? Last holiday quarter PS4 sold OVER 9M units! 

If Nintendo's projection remains, they'll only ship 4M units for this quarter if they reached shipping 7M units at the end of September. Even making adjustments as high as 3M units for this quarter alone means that the Switch likely won't beat PS4 or even close the gap ... 

Anyways, this will be the last response regarding this matter since this is not the thread to be discussing about this subject ... 

I did mention Switch is only in it's first year, which kind of encompasses the fact that they can't ship or have as much stock ready as they'd like. It will still have the most desired game these holidays though, and that'll be another title which will have legs even for several months after.

PS4 having to compete with that and also XB1X will struggle to top previous holiday sales, and may possibly even under-perform, unless they have something big to show at Paris Games Week.

Again, Switch only being in it's first year is still just warming up. So I don't think it's time to be talking like we've seen anything definitive for the future of these systems yet.