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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - How many major exclusives does the Switch need to gain out each year to maintain popularity?

 

How many major exclusives will the Switch need per year?

1 11 4.33%
 
2 30 11.81%
 
3 88 34.65%
 
4 125 49.21%
 
Total:254
fatslob-:O said:
Peach_buggy said:
Mario party sold nearly 9m last time it was on a successful console. All indications so far are that the Switch is going to be a successful console. Admittedly the quality has gone down in recent efforts but if Nintendo can somehow find a successful formula for it again i have no reason to believe it won't be a 5+m seller again. Metroid peaked on a console with a userbase of 22m. Switch will reach that in less than 2 years. I can't see any reason why Metroid can't become a big franchise if Nintendo really gets behind it with the Switch and hypes and markets the hell out of it.

Not sure how you come up with 3 IP'sx3 years= 11. It actually leaves 2 big IP's over, hence me saying "over 3 years".

@Bold Which was nearly a decade ago with Mario Party DS and are you implicating that the 3DS wasn't a successful console now ? Have you seen the recent numbers for Mario Party yet ? (the last release sold less than a million units so far and the first iteration on the 3DS just pushed over 2M units) 

There's every reason to believe Mario Party won't do 5M+ units, the biggest reason being the Switch most likely won't even reach the same demographics like the Wii or DS did ... 

My point of Metroid peaking on a much smaller userbase indicates that Metroid's popularity is not connected to the platform it released on ... (I think it's time to let go of the idea that Metroid will ever become a flagship franchise when Nintendo has tried for the past 3 decades. Hype will only go so far when the general consumer is disinterested with both the concept and content of Metroid.) 

Shaunodon said:

Mario Kart 8 DX is tracking better than the original and that was the highest seller on WiiU, so I'm not sure what more you want from a port. And being a port, it leaves them more than enough room/time to try and pump out a Mario Kart 9 later down the road.

What's most important for the Switch is that it's created the initial momentum needed to bring people in, so all they really need is to avoid any massive droughts like with the Wii, while making sure they keep the strong 3rd party and indie support they've already generated.

Everything about the Switch is on the right trajectory, so there's no need for Nintendo to try and break their backs cranking out all the games any time soon.

Let's just play out 2017 and wait to see what the 2018 landscape looks like. If there's a noticeable lack of game announcements and reveals, then maybe we can start crying for urgency. But so far they've already laid more than enough groundwork.

I'm just saying there's more potential to be had with a new Mario Kart game than a port but whatever ... 

3rd party support doesn't matter much anymore since Nintendo's biggest 3rd party games (Monster Hunter and Yokai Watch) are weaker than ever and indies don't push hardware sales either ... 

If you mean by 'right trajectory' going by Nintendo's forecasts as in similar to the 3DS then sure ... 

Shaunodon said:

Why are you even trying to predict what they could do for the next 3 years?

We have no idea what the gaming landscape will look like by then, or what sort of strategies/franchises Nintendo may come up with, so these comments are fairly premature.

Also saying Metroid's popularity peaked as if people weren't losing their minds simply seeing a logo, or that Mario Party isn't important because of one mediocre game on an already dead system. I think you are being way too presumptuous.

You'd think after the Switch and how everyone pretty much got it wrong, people would stop trying to make these wild predictions. 

I'm not and everyone's franchises in the console gaming industry is a known quanitity at this point, it's the strategy we don't know what Nintendo is going to take ... 

Metroid's popularity most likely did peak, back in the Gamecube days. Metroid Prime 3 alone failed to sell over 2M copies on a system that is 4x more popular than the predecessor it was on. The only one's losing their minds over Metroid Prime 4 are nothing more than the hardcore fans of the series and Mario Party didn't fade into irrelevancy with just one entry after Mario Party 9, it happened 3 times with Island Tour, 10 and Star Rush ... (all recent entries having selling less than 3M units and especially Star Rush) 

I'm the one being presumptuous ? LOL, you can go take your romanticism with you to la la land since what I stated are obvious facts grounded in nothing more than plain reality ... 

'Wild predictions' ? Bwahaha, keep demeaning me when you don't want to have your expectations realistically in check ... 

Is it possible Metroid peaked with Prime? Sure, but I don't see why it's not just as possible that Prime 4 could take it to new heights, or at least get back to where it was. It's not like gamers have just forgotten Metroid exist.

Mario Party an irrelevant series? Even for those last three titles the sales were hardly terrible, and only one of them was a main system title. Switch being far more popular and having easier access to multiple controllers, will make Mario Party a much better prospect on the system if they at least make a decent game this time.

I thought saying that Nintendo are simply on the right trajectory and that we should wait for 2018 before we worry about game shortages, made it clear my expectations are pretty modest.

I'm not sure what you're hoping from the system or seem to want Nintendo to dramatically overhaul, but I'm pretty satisfied so far with what they're doing and just seeing where the Switch may go.

I don't expect them to release two BOTW/Mario Odyssey quality games every year (as if anyone could), but as long as we get one or two exclusives close to that level every year, some other 'lesser' exclusives, perhaps a few more big ports (Smash, Hyrule Warriors, Bayonetta1/2, Xenoblade1/X), and enough support from other studios to pad out the release schedule, I don't see why they can't keep the momentum rolling.



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Shaunodon said:

Is it possible Metroid peaked with Prime? Sure, but I don't see why it's not just as possible that Prime 4 could take it to new heights, or at least get back to where it was. It's not like gamers have just forgotten Metroid exist.

A good portion probably have since Nintendo let it rot for 7 years ... 

I don't deny the possibility that Prime 4 could take it to new heights but I remain dubious about that prospect when it hasn't kept up itself up with recent audience and Metroid is what anyone would describe to be a stagnant franchise ... 

Shaunodon said:

Mario Party an irrelevant series? Even for those last three titles the sales were hardly terrible, and only one of them was a main system title. Switch being far more popular and having easier access to multiple controllers, will make Mario Party a much better prospect on the system if they at least make a decent game this time.

Sales weren't so bad for Island Tour and 10 relatively speaking but the last release was performance of mediocrity ... 

What the game doesn't need is more accessibility than it already had in the past, what it needs are similar demographics and that remains the biggest question yet ... 

Shaunodon said:

I thought saying that Nintendo are simply on the right trajectory and that we should wait for 2018 before we worry about game shortages, made it clear my expectations are pretty modest.

Nintendo doesn't have to worry about game shortages if they want the Switch to perform like the 3DS did, it's about them reaching the highest potential and they need new IPs for that ... 

Shaunodon said:

I'm not sure what you're hoping from the system or seem to want Nintendo to dramatically overhaul, but I'm pretty satisfied so far with what they're doing and just seeing where the Switch may go.

I think the Switch is doing decently so far but let's not deny that it has current ceiling ... 

Shaunodon said:

I don't expect them to release two BOTW/Mario Odyssey quality games every year (as if anyone could), but as long as we get one or two exclusives close to that level every year, some other 'lesser' exclusives, perhaps a few more big ports (Smash, Hyrule Warriors, Bayonetta1/2, Xenoblade1/X), and enough support from other studios to pad out the release schedule, I don't see why they can't keep the momentum rolling.

Well I do since Nintendo just released 4 of them on Switch ... 

I expect no less than two flagships if Nintendo wants the Switch to maintain current pace and especially in a tme where Nintendo's biggest 3rd party games are weaker than ever and it's harder than ever for 3rd party's to pump out high production value exclusives for the Switch ... 



fatslob-:O said:
Shaunodon said:

Why are you even trying to predict what they could do for the next 3 years?

We have no idea what the gaming landscape will look like by then, or what sort of strategies/franchises Nintendo may come up with, so these comments are fairly premature.

Also saying Metroid's popularity peaked as if people weren't losing their minds simply seeing a logo, or that Mario Party isn't important because of one mediocre game on an already dead system. I think you are being way too presumptuous.

You'd think after the Switch and how everyone pretty much got it wrong, people would stop trying to make these wild predictions. 

I'm not and everyone's franchises in the console gaming industry is a known quanitity at this point, it's the strategy we don't know what Nintendo is going to take ... 

Metroid's popularity most likely did peak, back in the Gamecube days. Metroid Prime 3 alone failed to sell over 2M copies on a system that is 4x more popular than the predecessor it was on. The only one's losing their minds over Metroid Prime 4 are nothing more than the hardcore fans of the series and Mario Party didn't fade into irrelevancy with just one entry after Mario Party 9, it happened 3 times with Island Tour, 10 and Star Rush ... (all recent entries having selling less than 3M units and especially Star Rush) 

I'm the one being presumptuous ? LOL, you can go take your romanticism with you to la la land since what I stated are obvious facts grounded in nothing more than plain reality ... 

'Wild predictions' ? Bwahaha, keep demeaning me when you don't want to have your expectations realistically in check ... 

I just wanted to throw my two cents on this --

The bolded portion is a deceptive figure to me considering mainstay franchises on the Wii like 3D Mario, 3D Zelda (Windwaker vs. Twilight Princess), Animal Crossing, Smash Bros and others sold at similar attach rates to their Gamecube counterparts if you estimate that the Wii's core gamer install base was around 35m.  The only 1st party games that really benefited from the casual userbase on the Wii outside of the Wii franchise (Wii Fit, Wii Sports, Wii Party, Wii Music) were Mario Kart, NSMB, Mario Party 8 and maybe Donkey Kong Country Returns (can't say for sure unless Tropical Freeze gets a Switch port).  I personally like MP4's chances on the Switch because because of a combination of a thirsty fanbase, the Switch's quick rise and its smaller userbase of casual gamers.  If games like DOOM sell decently on the Switch then MP4 is going to be the best selling Metroid game ever as long as it delivers.

Mario Party on the Switch also has a great chance to sell well.  Unlike their handheld counterparts, the Switch is probably the best platform ever for a game like Mario Party because of its ability to play co-op games anywhere.  Unlike handheld versions, there's no need for multiple handhelds or multiple copies of Mario Party; if you want to play Mario Party with friends, just grab your Switch, an extra pair of joycons and you're good to go.  I personally don't really give a crap about Mario Party and I'm probably going to get it day one  when it comes to the Switch specifically because of how the Switch functions.



wombat123 said:

I just wanted to throw my two cents on this --

The bolded portion is a deceptive figure to me considering mainstay franchises from the Wii like 3D Mario, 3D Zelda (Windwaker vs. Twilight Princess), Animal Crossing, Smash Bros and others sold at similar attach rates to their Gamecube counterparts if you estimate that the Wii's core gamer install base was around 35m.  The only 1st party games that really benefited from the casual userbase on the Wii outside of the Wii franchise (Wii Fit, Wii Sports, Wii Party, Wii Music) were Mario Kart, NSMB, Mario Party 8 and maybe Donkey Kong Country Returns (can't say for sure unless Tropical Freeze gets a Switch port).  I personally like MP4's chances on the Switch because because of a combination of a thirsty fanbase, the Switch's quick rise and its lack of casual gamers.  If games like DOOM sell decently on the Switch then MP4 is going to be the best selling Metroid game ever as long as it delivers.

LOL, you just moved goal posts before I even responded. If you have to make the distinction between casual vs core then you've already lost the argument ... (no such thing as 'type' of gamer, there are only audience's specific to a franchise) 

Metroid Prime 3 straight up sold less on the Wii compared to the original Metroid Prime for Gamecube! The only one that's thirsty for Metroid Prime 4 are Metroid fans themselves, the general consumer didn't ask for another entry ... (Switch's lack of selection of games isn't going to be a problem either when Metroid Prime 4 releases so MP4 monopolizing software sales on the Switch is not realistic.) 

wombat123 said:

Mario Party on the Switch also has a great chance to sell well.  Unlike their handheld counterparts, the Switch is probably the best platform ever for a game like Mario Party because of its ability to play co-op games anywhere.  Unlike handheld versions, there's no need for multiple handhelds or multiple copies of Mario Party; if you want to play Mario Party with friends, just grab your Switch, an extra pair of joycons and you're good to go.  I personally don't really give a crap about Mario Party and I'm probably going to get it day one  when it comes to the Switch specifically because of how the Switch functions.

LOL @ the implication that Mario Party didn't sell well on handheld ... 

The point with 'party' games is to share the experience and that didn't stop Mario Party DS from outselling Mario Party 8 on the Wii even if you had to get seperate systems for the former ... 

Mario Party succeeded on the Wii and DS because of demographics and the Switch does not have the same demographics or games so far that encourages more of these social types games ... 



fatslob-:O said:

LOL, you just moved goal posts before I even responded. If you have to make the distinction between casual vs core then you've already lost the argument ... (no such thing as 'type' of gamer, there are only audience's specific to a franchise) 

Metroid Prime 3 straight up sold less on the Wii compared to the original Metroid Prime for Gamecube! The only one that's thirsty for Metroid Prime 4 are Metroid fans themselves, the general consumer didn't ask for another entry ... (Switch's lack of selection of games isn't going to be a problem either when Metroid Prime 4 releases so MP4 monopolizing software sales on the Switch is not realistic.) 

LOL @ the implication that Mario Party didn't sell well on handheld ... 

The point with 'party' games is to share the experience and that didn't stop Mario Party DS from outselling Mario Party 8 on the Wii even if you had to get seperate systems for the former ... 

Mario Party succeeded on the Wii and DS because of demographics and the Switch does not have the same demographics or games so far that encourages more of these social types games ... 

You're the one that pointed out the Wii's 100m userbase as a means to make Metroid Prime 3's numbers look worse and hammer your argument that the Metroid series is in decline.  I was just saying that it isn't as cut and dry as you tried to make it sound by pointing out how other Nintendo core franchises did on the Wii compared to the Gamecube.  You were using the total Wii numbers to pad your argument when you knew that almost 2/3 of that 100m didn't give a crap about most of Nintendo's core franchises.

The easier explaination to me as to why Prime 2 and 3  didn't reach the same numbers as the original is due to franchise fatigue.  In a five year span, Nintendo pushed out three Metroid Prime games.  I personally like Metroid Prime  but I don't like Metroid Prime that much.  By the time MP3 came out, I was ready for a 4-5 year break from the series and I'm guessing more fans burnt out earlier.  The Metroid Prime series overall isn't the kind that can have sequels in such a short amount of time and stave off franchise fatigue; it doesn't have an ongoing narrative that's engaging enough to keep people hooked like with the Mass Effect Trilogy, it doesn't have a casual pick up and play nature of a 2D sidescroller like NSMB nor does it feature multiplayer gameplay that somehow gets people addicted to it like with CoD.  For a series like Metroid Prime, it needs 4-5 years between sequels to get people recharged and hungry for another round.  And it's not just Metroid Prime; look at something like Mario Galaxy 2.  It was just as good as the original but sold 4m less because it was released only 2 1/2 years after Galaxy 1.  Four million people already had their fill of 3D Mario and needed time to recharge -- and I think it was same deal with Metroid Prime 2 & 3: Nintendo didn't give fans enough time to recharge.  They're overcharged now, which is why I expect MP4 to sell better than the original as long as it's a great game.

I'll even repeat what you said with your Mario Party argument later as another argument for MP4 chances of success: the reason Metroid Prime 3 didn't sell as well as the original is because the demographics of the Wii didn't allow it to and that's the reason why MP4 will sell well: because the Switch's demographics or games so far encourages more of these core types games.

As for Mario Party, I'll admit that I was focusing on 3DS numbers and didn't even think of any other platforms.  My main argument though was that I believed that the Switch's form factor would allow a Mario Party game to flourish.  I don't think it's going to sell 10m but I believe it'll outsell the 3DS versions.



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fatslob-:O said:
Peach_buggy said:

Perhaps i should have added the word "Home"? Meaning Mario parties perform better on home consoles. With the Switch, it will have the best of both worlds.  Same goes for Metroid. Tbh i think you should go back 2 gens with Nintendo if you wanna try to predict trends. The Wii u was a carcrash and not much trendworthy data can be gleaned from it imho. The fact remains. Last time Mario Party was on a successful (HOME) console it sold way over 5m. Stop trying to predict what you want to happen through trends and actually use logic. This is a Nintendo discussion and i know you only come on these to either troll or try and downplay its success. Well massaging the trends to how you WANT them to appear still ain't gonna make it happen!

@Bold That statement falls apart once we consider that Mario Party DS outsold Mario Party 8 and that Mario Party: Island Tour outsold Mario Party 10. In the 7th and 8th gen, Mario Party on Nintendo's handhelds outsold their console equivalents so what you said doesn't hold ... 

Are you implying that Mario Party didn't see success on Nintendo's portable systems ? Also not true since the highest sellling Mario Party game is Mario Party DS which outsold Mario Party 8 on the Wii ... 

You ask me to use logic yet you stated two incorrect statements in your post ? LMAO ... 

I come to Nintendo threads cause that's what everyone else seems to want to discuss (not much reason to post in dead threads) so why don't you cut your crappy confirmation bias out of this thread and stop accusing me as a troll when you don't like my posts and start putting some real effort into your arguments like you failed to last time when we discussed about Switch's stock ? 

Failed? Really. I jus tgave up because it was like arguing with a brick wall and i said i'd wait for some concrete numbers before returning to prove your point wrong. A bit like i will be here IF a decent Mario Party pulls decent numbers. Although obviously that will take a little longer.



fatslob-:O said:
wombat123 said:

I just wanted to throw my two cents on this --

The bolded portion is a deceptive figure to me considering mainstay franchises from the Wii like 3D Mario, 3D Zelda (Windwaker vs. Twilight Princess), Animal Crossing, Smash Bros and others sold at similar attach rates to their Gamecube counterparts if you estimate that the Wii's core gamer install base was around 35m.  The only 1st party games that really benefited from the casual userbase on the Wii outside of the Wii franchise (Wii Fit, Wii Sports, Wii Party, Wii Music) were Mario Kart, NSMB, Mario Party 8 and maybe Donkey Kong Country Returns (can't say for sure unless Tropical Freeze gets a Switch port).  I personally like MP4's chances on the Switch because because of a combination of a thirsty fanbase, the Switch's quick rise and its lack of casual gamers.  If games like DOOM sell decently on the Switch then MP4 is going to be the best selling Metroid game ever as long as it delivers.

LOL, you just moved goal posts before I even responded. If you have to make the distinction between casual vs core then you've already lost the argument ... (no such thing as 'type' of gamer, there are only audience's specific to a franchise) 

Metroid Prime 3 straight up sold less on the Wii compared to the original Metroid Prime for Gamecube! The only one that's thirsty for Metroid Prime 4 are Metroid fans themselves, the general consumer didn't ask for another entry ... (Switch's lack of selection of games isn't going to be a problem either when Metroid Prime 4 releases so MP4 monopolizing software sales on the Switch is not realistic.) 

wombat123 said:

Mario Party on the Switch also has a great chance to sell well.  Unlike their handheld counterparts, the Switch is probably the best platform ever for a game like Mario Party because of its ability to play co-op games anywhere.  Unlike handheld versions, there's no need for multiple handhelds or multiple copies of Mario Party; if you want to play Mario Party with friends, just grab your Switch, an extra pair of joycons and you're good to go.  I personally don't really give a crap about Mario Party and I'm probably going to get it day one  when it comes to the Switch specifically because of how the Switch functions.

LOL @ the implication that Mario Party didn't sell well on handheld ... 

The point with 'party' games is to share the experience and that didn't stop Mario Party DS from outselling Mario Party 8 on the Wii even if you had to get seperate systems for the former ... 

Mario Party succeeded on the Wii and DS because of demographics and the Switch does not have the same demographics or games so far that encourages more of these social types games ... 

I wonder if he even realises he's doing this.



I hope Nintendo has a respectable online system in place when they release Smash Bros.



wombat123 said:

You're the one that pointed out the Wii's 100m userbase as a means to make Metroid Prime 3's numbers look worse and hammer your argument that the Metroid series is in decline.  I was just saying that it isn't as cut and dry as you tried to make it sound by pointing out how other Nintendo core franchises did on the Wii compared to the Gamecube.  You were using the total Wii numbers to pad your argument when you knew that almost 2/3 of that 100m didn't give a crap about most of Nintendo's core franchises.

My point wasn't even to illustrate that Metroid was in decline. You excusing Metroid's decline from GC to the Wii is nothing more than cherry on top of a cake ... 

wombat123 said:

The easier explaination to me as to why Prime 2 and 3  didn't reach the same numbers as the original is due to franchise fatigue.  In a five year span, Nintendo pushed out three Metroid Prime games.  I personally like Metroid Prime  but I don't like Metroid Prime that much.  By the time MP3 came out, I was ready for a 4-5 year break from the series and I'm guessing more fans burnt out earlier.  The Metroid Prime series overall isn't the kind that can have sequels in such a short amount of time and stave off franchise fatigue; it doesn't have an ongoing narrative that's engaging enough to keep people hooked like with the Mass Effect Trilogy, it doesn't have a casual pick up and play nature of a 2D sidescroller like NSMB nor does it feature multiplayer gameplay that somehow gets people addicted to it like with CoD.  For a series like Metroid Prime, it needs 4-5 years between sequels to get people recharged and hungry for another round.  And it's not just Metroid Prime; look at something like Mario Galaxy 2.  It was just as good as the original but sold 4m less because it was released only 2 1/2 years after Galaxy 1.  Four million people already had their fill of 3D Mario and needed time to recharge -- and I think it was same deal with Metroid Prime 2 & 3: Nintendo didn't give fans enough time to recharge.  They're overcharged now, which is why I expect MP4 to sell better than the original as long as it's a great game.

'Franchise fatigue' is just another excuse. How do sports titles such as FIFA, RPG's such as Pokemon or FPS's such as COD manage to keep up despite all having new releases in less than 2 years compared to their last entries release ? Your entire statement is totally off base. What even prevents Metroid from achieving the same ? 

wombat123 said:

I'll even repeat what you said with your Mario Party argument later as another argument for MP4 chances of success: the reason Metroid Prime 3 didn't sell as well as the original is because the demographics of the Wii didn't allow it to and that's the reason why MP4 will sell well: because the Switch's demographics or games so far encourages more of these core types games.

As for Mario Party, I'll admit that I was focusing on 3DS numbers and didn't even think of any other platforms.  My main argument though was that I believed that the Switch's form factor would allow a Mario Party game to flourish.  I don't think it's going to sell 10m but I believe it'll outsell the 3DS versions.

Demographics aren't the reason for MP3's decline, it's a reason for MP8's success though ... (How did demographics not affect Zelda, Smash Bros and Animal Crossing in a megative manner ?) 

Peach_buggy said:
fatslob-:O said:

@Bold That statement falls apart once we consider that Mario Party DS outsold Mario Party 8 and that Mario Party: Island Tour outsold Mario Party 10. In the 7th and 8th gen, Mario Party on Nintendo's handhelds outsold their console equivalents so what you said doesn't hold ... 

Are you implying that Mario Party didn't see success on Nintendo's portable systems ? Also not true since the highest sellling Mario Party game is Mario Party DS which outsold Mario Party 8 on the Wii ... 

You ask me to use logic yet you stated two incorrect statements in your post ? LMAO ... 

I come to Nintendo threads cause that's what everyone else seems to want to discuss (not much reason to post in dead threads) so why don't you cut your crappy confirmation bias out of this thread and stop accusing me as a troll when you don't like my posts and start putting some real effort into your arguments like you failed to last time when we discussed about Switch's stock ? 

Failed? Really. I jus tgave up because it was like arguing with a brick wall and i said i'd wait for some concrete numbers before returning to prove your point wrong. A bit like i will be here IF a decent Mario Party pulls decent numbers. Although obviously that will take a little longer.

Really man ? Did you not read my post before responding ? We have the numbers to show Mario Party's decline, you just choose to deny it ... 

Shaunodon said:

I wonder if he even realises he's doing this.

I wonder if you even understand what the definition of 'demographics' mean ... 



fatslob-:O said:
wombat123 said:

You're the one that pointed out the Wii's 100m userbase as a means to make Metroid Prime 3's numbers look worse and hammer your argument that the Metroid series is in decline.  I was just saying that it isn't as cut and dry as you tried to make it sound by pointing out how other Nintendo core franchises did on the Wii compared to the Gamecube.  You were using the total Wii numbers to pad your argument when you knew that almost 2/3 of that 100m didn't give a crap about most of Nintendo's core franchises.

My point wasn't even to illustrate that Metroid was in decline. You excusing Metroid's decline from GC to the Wii is nothing more than cherry on top of a cake ... 

wombat123 said:

The easier explaination to me as to why Prime 2 and 3  didn't reach the same numbers as the original is due to franchise fatigue.  In a five year span, Nintendo pushed out three Metroid Prime games.  I personally like Metroid Prime  but I don't like Metroid Prime that much.  By the time MP3 came out, I was ready for a 4-5 year break from the series and I'm guessing more fans burnt out earlier.  The Metroid Prime series overall isn't the kind that can have sequels in such a short amount of time and stave off franchise fatigue; it doesn't have an ongoing narrative that's engaging enough to keep people hooked like with the Mass Effect Trilogy, it doesn't have a casual pick up and play nature of a 2D sidescroller like NSMB nor does it feature multiplayer gameplay that somehow gets people addicted to it like with CoD.  For a series like Metroid Prime, it needs 4-5 years between sequels to get people recharged and hungry for another round.  And it's not just Metroid Prime; look at something like Mario Galaxy 2.  It was just as good as the original but sold 4m less because it was released only 2 1/2 years after Galaxy 1.  Four million people already had their fill of 3D Mario and needed time to recharge -- and I think it was same deal with Metroid Prime 2 & 3: Nintendo didn't give fans enough time to recharge.  They're overcharged now, which is why I expect MP4 to sell better than the original as long as it's a great game.

'Franchise fatigue' is just another excuse. How do sports titles such as FIFA, RPG's such as Pokemon or FPS's such as COD manage to keep up despite all having new releases in less than 2 years compared to their last entries release ? Your entire statement is totally off base. What even prevents Metroid from achieving the same ? 

wombat123 said:

I'll even repeat what you said with your Mario Party argument later as another argument for MP4 chances of success: the reason Metroid Prime 3 didn't sell as well as the original is because the demographics of the Wii didn't allow it to and that's the reason why MP4 will sell well: because the Switch's demographics or games so far encourages more of these core types games.

As for Mario Party, I'll admit that I was focusing on 3DS numbers and didn't even think of any other platforms.  My main argument though was that I believed that the Switch's form factor would allow a Mario Party game to flourish.  I don't think it's going to sell 10m but I believe it'll outsell the 3DS versions.

Demographics aren't the reason for MP3's decline, it's a reason for MP8's success though ... (How did demographics not affect Zelda, Smash Bros and Animal Crossing in a megative manner ?) 

Peach_buggy said:

Failed? Really. I jus tgave up because it was like arguing with a brick wall and i said i'd wait for some concrete numbers before returning to prove your point wrong. A bit like i will be here IF a decent Mario Party pulls decent numbers. Although obviously that will take a little longer.

Really man ? Did you not read my post before responding ? We have the numbers to show Mario Party's decline, you just choose to deny it ... 

Shaunodon said:

I wonder if he even realises he's doing this.

I wonder if you even understand what the definition of 'demographics' mean ... 

Actually i did check the Mario Party numbers and yes i was surprised. I had assumed it was Mario Party 8 that had sold 8.9m,  when it was in fact Mario Party on DS. The fact that Mario party sells just as well on handhelds is actually detrimental to your argument though in that case. Seeing  how Switch can be both it will appeal to both console and handheld-based MP purchasers. I'm actually quite interested in following sales trends for franchises and upon investigation,  Mario Party sales seem to be almost exclusively tied to the userbase. The more sales a console gets, the more sales MP gets. So this makes me even more confident Mario Party can return to the 5m+ sales, big hitter threshold, as looking at the Switches sales trajectory, it seems much closer to the Wii than the 3ds. All this is immaterial though if the series is still crap. 10 was pretty bad tbh. (Can't comment on the 3ds titles though, as i don't own any. Definitely picking up the top 100 though!)