Quantcast
How many major exclusives does the Switch need to gain out each year to maintain popularity?

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - How many major exclusives does the Switch need to gain out each year to maintain popularity?

How many major exclusives will the Switch need per year?

1 11 4.33%
 
2 30 11.81%
 
3 88 34.65%
 
4 125 49.21%
 
Total:254

Since i've had my Switch, I've been having a blast. I havent even really been looking at my other platforms as Sonys major titles will be releasing next year and Xbox...well..you know (anyway).  As for Nintendo, I can see them only needing three major titles from first party per year to seal the deal for popularity as a console. Their third party exclusives will only be icing on the cake. Moreso than the other brands, Nintendo thrives and simply survives on first party (which has given third party a hard time). It seems that times are changing for the better on  both ends as far as expectations from all parties invovled this generation. I expect more flexibility and with the prospect of a wider audience comes greater financial expectation. Luckily for Nintendo the cost of making exclusives for them is less than the competition.  Take Super Mario Rabbids as an example. This is a great idea that i'm sure was a cost effective venture. As It stands right now if Nintendo continues to get great third party reception and they accept their invitation, I only expect they need three major exclusives per year to play ball with the competition. If they falter...well...then thats subject to change. Lets not forget that Nintendo has to bring a lot of Wii titles that people missed out on oer to the E Shop. There are great propositions all around for Nintendo this gen (ok maybe not all around...forget online gaming until they fix it)



Around the Network

Depends on what you mean by "major". Yoshi and Kirby sell about as well as Forza, but the perception is that those are more so back catalog titles that you buy in addition with your console, rather than console sellers like Forza was(though it is decreasing). Perception is actually pretty interesting. It's easy to say that the PS3 won over the Xbox 360 as far as exclusives go, but Microsoft's 2nd, 3rd, and 4th biggest franchises were competitive with Sony's biggest franchises on the PS3. Just trying to bring up an interesting point, not trying to start shit.

I think it will need two major games per year. Major as in, 6+ million. Stuff like Yoshi, Kirby, that's icing on the cake. Let's not forget that console sellers can be exclusive to certain regions. I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo tried super hard to push Metroid Prime 4, to the point that it becomes a major console seller in America and certain parts of Europe. But that's just wishful thinking on my part ...



How many major exclusives does the Switch need to gain out each year to maintain popularity?

"Define Major"

The amount of titles you need to maintain popularity changes depending on how major the game is. A Wii sports style hit is worth like 3 major games combined.

Anyway I will take a wild shot in the dark here. I say 3-4 titles. Two in the 1st half. 1 in the summer/Fall and 1 on the Holidays.

Nintendo releases around 7 titles a year on all platforms. So before it will look like they did not make many titles but that wasn't the case. With the Switch being their only console we will see all seven games come on one system. So getting 3 major titles a year might be lowballing it.



Tag:I'm not bias towards Nintendo. You just think that way (Admin note - it's "biased".  Not "bias")
(killeryoshis note - Who put that there ?)
Switch is 9th generation. Everyone else is playing on last gen systems!

Biggest pikmin fan on VGchartz I won from a voting poll
I am not a nerd. I am enthusiast.  EN-THU-SI-AST!
Do Not Click here or else I will call on the eye of shinning justice on you. 

Two ~flagships per year with smaller/more niche games to supplement is good for any of the big 3. The Switch absolutely has that for their launch year with BotW and Odyssey but I wonder if they can maintain momentum throughout the years. They've been known to have major drought years in the past but maybe with all their studios and contracts consolidating onto one console that will be less of an issue.



killeryoshis said:
How many major exclusives does the Switch need to gain out each year to maintain popularity?

"Define Major"

The amount of titles you need to maintain popularity changes depending on how major the game is. A Wii sports style hit is worth like 3 major games combined.

Anyway I will take a wild shot in the dark here. I say 3-4 titles. Two in the 1st half. 1 in the summer/Fall and 1 on the Holidays.

Nintendo releases around 7 titles a year on all platforms. So before it will look like they did not make many titles but that wasn't the case. With the Switch being their only console we will see all seven games come on one system. So getting 3 major titles a year might be lowballing it.

Two in the first half, in the summer and one in the fall is a great idea! Theres less risk for the fourth quarter. Lets hope they heavy hitter is the strong enough of them all though like this year with Mario.



Around the Network
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

Depends on what you mean by "major". Yoshi and Kirby sell about as well as Forza, but the perception is that those are more so back catalog titles that you buy in addition with your console, rather than console sellers like Forza was(though it is decreasing). Perception is actually pretty interesting. It's easy to say that the PS3 won over the Xbox 360 as far as exclusives go, but Microsoft's 2nd, 3rd, and 4th biggest franchises were competitive with Sony's biggest franchises on the PS3. Just trying to bring up an interesting point, not trying to start shit.

I think it will need two major games per year. Major as in, 6+ million. Stuff like Yoshi, Kirby, that's icing on the cake. Let's not forget that console sellers can be exclusive to certain regions. I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo tried super hard to push Metroid Prime 4, to the point that it becomes a major console seller in America and certain parts of Europe. But that's just wishful thinking on my part ...

Microsoft had four major franchises to play with last gen. Now they only have three and Fable will not have the power it once had. Fable was an aimless franchise and it didnt need sales to make Lionhead to fall apart, but rather bad leadership and a lack of a testament to the greatness Molyneux sold. Their market share is smaller so less people will buy their exclusives. This is why they've had such trouble with single player games this gen. Sony took back the gamers they originally had on the PS2 before they jumped ship to the 360 because Microsoft assured them third party would be there. 

P.S.

Phil Spencer also conceded that Nintendo makes the best first party in the business. He also admitted that single player games sell better on their platform. It all depends on how you rear your market based on your offerings, you see. Nintendo could easily make a great Kid Icarus, Donkey Kong, Metroid Fire Emblem or even a Kirby game. They have so much to work with. They also haven't launched a new Super Smash bros hasn't had a major release in three years, so I could see that being announced eiher next year to be launched either the same year or the year after. There is a lot to work with when it comes to Nintendo even though Sony is building a heap of great titles themselves (now that they've hit their stride).



2 is good for "major" exclusives. That's essentially what we're getting this year with Zelda and Mario. There should be an additional 4-6 or so "notable" exclusives as well, i.e. Splatoon 2, Arms, Mario+Rabbids, Fire Emblem Warriors, Xenoblade 2. Toss in a couple HD remakes/enhanced ports like MK8D and Pokken DX. So in other words, they set the perfect blueprint this year for exclusives. If they can follow that through 2020, this system could end up a 100m lt seller. Though I have a feeling Animal Crossing will be the sole major exclusive for 2018, since I think Pokemon is going to end up a 2019 release. Unless we end up getting a 2d Mario next year, though I hope not honestly. Btw, I'm defining "major" by sales potential. So I wouldn't consider something like Prime 4 to be a major exclusive. 



Definitely less than they needed in 1st year, I think around 3 "major" exclusives.



More than this year for sure. I didn't used my Switch very often after Zelda Botw. A little after the Splatoon 2 release, that's all. At the moment it's under some cm of dust waiting for Xenoblade chrnonicles 2. Really hope to see more major RPG. Xeno 2 will be the first major (J)RPG to release on the console...
I think 5 to 6 could be ok including second and third party exclusives. Next year 3 are just confirmed(?) Pokémon, Metroid Prime 4 and Main Fire emblem title (I didn't count Yoshi and Kirby as major release).
Unfortunately Switch can't count on third party as PS4 and X1 cause Sony and Microsoft console are on the market since 2013 and the majority of players play third party games on them (due to the fact that are powerful than Switch, got a larger user base for online games, better controller etc... Joycons suck) so they need to gain popularity by more (important) exclusive titles.



I think 3 is the right guess, for instance next year we'll see the release of Fire Emblem for Switch, that will likely be one of the best selling entries ever in the series given how much anticipation the fans have for a Home Console FE game and how popular the series has become on handhelds in the last few years, in addition to that I expect to see Pokémon by the end of the year, giving us 2 major exclusives, that would feel kinda empty for someone who doesn't enjoy one of the two series but if you add to that say Super Mario Maker 2 the three of them guarantee to appeal to almost anyone with at least one title for 2018 PLUS the side games like Yoshi, Kirby and Travis Strikes again.

Perhaps 2018 might only need 2 major exclusives given I expect Odyssey to go sold out in the Holidays and X2 coming out so late in the year that many people will be buying them in early 2018