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Forums - Sales Discussion - Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - 25th Sept. - 1st Oct 2017

irstupid said:

Why do you care so much about Nintendo upping their forecast? Upping a forecast doesn't really help a company out versus the risk. A company meets their forecast and the stock sits even. A company beats their forecast and stock rises slightly. A company doesn't meet their forecast, even if by just a dollar, stock plumets.

THere really isnt' much of a benefit to raising forecast. Sure when they announce the increase, stock will go up slightly, but not enough to warrent the extra risk of not meeting forecast.

The information is interesting pertaining to the performance comparison between the Switch and 3DS ... 



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RolStoppable said:

2. Ah yes, I remember now. You called it worrisome that Switch won't be below $200 anytime soon, I said that the Switch doesn't need to be below $200 anytime soon. The 3DS has no advantage here.

What if the Switch stays at $250 and above for the rest of it's life ? Will you discount 3DS's pricing then ? 

RolStoppable said:

3. Profit and licensing fees have nothing to do with this. There have been reported shortages of compenents that Switch uses, so it's not a given that Nintendo can increase production to a level that makes Switch beat the 3DS in shipments through the first 13 months. The demand to beat the 3DS is certainly there. We'll learn soon enough if and by how much Nintendo increases their forecast.

That information was months ago, in fact it's probably outdated ... 

The fact that Nvidia Shield is retailing for $200 means that the component shortages is exaggerated. The most rumored component shortage relating to the Switch was NAND flash memory if I remember correctly ? Shield came with 16GB of flash memory at $200 so just what does it take to secure the extra 16GB of capacity when similar technology is used for Switch game cartridges also ? 

But, yeah I guess we'll see soon enough if Nintendo raises their forecast and by how much too ...

RolStoppable said:

While it's rare that such an adjustment happens after the first quarter of a given fiscal year, it's common to happen after the second. The reasons being that an adjustment after the first quarter would look bad for a company's ability to make forecasts, and the summer period is the slowest for video game sales, so an increase in projections could easily turn out to be jumping the gun. That in turn could necessitate a downward adjustment later on and that's neither good for companies or shareholders.

A company isn't even required to give earnings forecasts, it's extremely hard to skew the perception of the stockmarket with a large and publicly traded company such as Nintendo with their own forecasts ... 

Shareholders are prone to react continuously either way so adjustments are frequently abound since companies rarely *just* meet their targets ... 



Kerotan said:
Jranation said:
Animal Crossing should be set for 2018. They're probably just timing it for the Smartphone release. Since it could have a PoGo effect.

Im hoping for Pokemon to be in 2018 too. Especially if they have been working for it since Sun and Moon. Then yeah theres Smash Deluxe. Will bring the hype for sure!

Can't see a brand new pokemon on Switch before 2019

Since how bad UsUm looks like. They should have enough time. But if were going for a logical thinking than a wishful one then you are right xD 



Pocky Lover Boy! 

50./00. [XB1] Forza Motorsport 7 # (Microsoft Game Studios) {2017.10.03} (¥6.900

So Forza charted #50 on mediacreate. First time I've seen an Xbox title chart in ages. Is this thread worthy?



RolStoppable said:
Kerotan said:
50./00. [XB1] Forza Motorsport 7 # (Microsoft Game Studios) {2017.10.03} (¥6.900

So Forza charted #50 on mediacreate. First time I've seen an Xbox title chart in ages. Is this thread worthy?

Yes.

You can do it.  You haven't made many recently and I've made too many. 



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RolStoppable said:
Kerotan said:

You can do it.  You haven't made many recently and I've made too many. 

You really want that thread to be made?

I don't "really" want it to be made but the fifa only sold 1% on Switch thread was very popular.  Forza sales in Japan thread would probably do similar. 



RolStoppable said:
fatslob-:O said:

1. What if the Switch stays at $250 and above for the rest of it's life ? Will you discount 3DS's pricing then ? 

2. That information was months ago, in fact it's probably outdated ... 

The fact that Nvidia Shield is retailing for $200 means that the component shortages is exaggerated. The most rumored component shortage relating to the Switch was NAND flash memory if I remember correctly ? Shield came with 16GB of flash memory at $200 so just what does it take to secure the extra 16GB of capacity when similar technology is used for Switch game cartridges also ? 

But, yeah I guess we'll see soon enough if Nintendo raises their forecast and by how much too ...

3. A company isn't even required to give earnings forecasts, it's extremely hard to skew the perception of the stockmarket with a large and publicly traded company such as Nintendo with their own forecasts ... 

Shareholders are prone to react continuously either way so adjustments are frequently abound since companies rarely *just* meet their targets ... 

1, Yes, because in that scenario the Switch is going to beast so hard throughout its life that it will leave the 3DS in the dust anyway.

2. I don't see how Nvidia Shield is supposed to be proof for anything. That thing sells in such low quantities that it shouldn't even be brought up in the first place. If there are no component shortages, then Nintendo's forecast will increase at the end of this month because the demand for Switch is certainly there. If there's no increase, then investors will ask why and we'll get confirmation from Nintendo that component shortages are indeed a very real thing.

3. It reflects poorly on a company when they can't meet their forecasts. There aren't many instances where a console manufacturer made an adjustment after the first quarter of a fiscal year, so the lack of an upwards adjustment isn't indicative of anything.

This is as far back as Nintendo's forecasts go:
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/earnings/yearindex.html
Nintendo only ever made adjustments in the first quarter on 3 separate occasions. In the first 2 instances, the DS and Wii were selling way above expectations after March 2006 and after March 2007 respectively. The 3rd time was when the DS and Wii were both underperforming after March 2011. Immediate changes needed to be made to reflect the sales performance. But you are correct, it's rare for a company like Nintendo to revise their forecast in the first quarter under normal circumstances.

I think Nintendo are being a little more conservative this time around, because they were overly ambitious with their projections in the past. It doesn't instill confidence in your investors, when you're constantly slashing your forecast after making a bold projection. Ultimately, accurate projections are incredibly tough to make. More often than not, you're going to be way off the mark. Even the biggest analysts with all the data in the world have widely differing views on the Switch's first year performance.
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2017-03-03-analysts-cant-agree-on-switch-potential

 

Fiscal Year Q4 Report
(Initial Forecast)
Q1 Report
(1st Revision)
Q2 Report
(2nd Revision)
Q3 Report
(3rd Revision)
Q4 Report
(Actual Result)
FYE March 2005 GBA HW 10.20m
NDS HW 12.40m
GCN HW 2.80m
No Change GBA HW 11.00m (+0.80m)
NDS HW 12.00m (-0.40m)
GCN HW 2.40m (-0.40m)
No Change GBA HW 8.33m
NDS HW 11.46m
GCN HW 2.35m
FYE March 2006 GBA HW 2.50m
NDS HW 16.00m
WII HW 6.00m
NDS HW 17.00m (+1.00m) GBA HW 3.30m (+0.80m)
NDS HW 20.00m (+3.00m)
GBA HW 4.00m (+0.70m)
NDS HW 23.00m (+3.00m)
GBA HW 4.34m
NDS HW 23.56m
WII HW 5.84m
FYE March 2007 NDS HW 22.00m
WII HW 14.00m
NDS HW 26.00m (+4.00m)
WII HW 16.50m (+2.50m)
NDS HW 28.00m (+2.00m)
WII HW 17.50m (+1.00m)
NDS HW 29.50m (+1.50m)
WII HW 18.50m (+1.00m)
NDS HW 30.31m
WII HW 18.61m
FYE March 2008 NDS HW 28.00m
WII HW 25.00m
No Change NDS HW 30.50m (+2.50m)
WII HW 27.50m (+2.50m)
NDS HW 31.50m (+1.00m)
WII HW 26.50m (-1.00m)
NDS HW 31.18m
WII HW 25.95m
FYE March 2009 NDS HW 30.00m
WII HW 26.00m
No Change WII HW 20.00m (-6.00m) No Change NDS HW 27.11m
WII HW 20.53m
FYE March 2010 NDS HW 30.00m
WII HW 18.00m
No Change NDS HW 23.50m (-6.50m)
WII HW 17.50m (-0.50m)
NDS HW 22.50m (-1.00m)
WII HW 16.00m (-1.00m)
NDS HW 17.52m
WII HW 15.08m
FYE March 2011 NDS HW 11.00m
3DS HW 16.00m
WII HW 13.00m
NDS HW 9.00m (-2.00m)
WII HW 12.00m (-1.00m)
NDS HW 6.00m (-3.00m) NDS HW 5.50m (-0.50m)
3DS HW 14.00m (-2.00m)
WII HW 10.00m (-2.00m)
NDS HW 5.10m
3DS HW 13.53m
WII HW 9.84m
FYE March 2012 NDS HW 2.50m
3DS HW 18.50m
WII HW 10.50m
No Change 3DS HW 17.50m (-1.00m)
WII HW 5.00m (-5.50m)
WIU HW 5.50m
NDS HW 2.30m (-0.20m)
3DS HW 15.00m (-2.50m)
WII HW 4.00m (-1.00m)
WIU HW 4.00m (-1.50m)
NDS HW 2.35m
3DS HW 13.95m
WII HW 3.98m
WIU HW 3.45m
FYE March 2013 3DS HW 18.00m
WII HW 2.00m
WIU HW 9.00m
No Change No Change 3DS HW 13.50m (-4.50m)
WII HW 1.20m (-0.80m)
WIU HW 2.80m (-6.20m)
3DS HW 12.24m
WII HW 1.22m
WIU HW 2.72m
FYE March 2014 3DS HW 12.00m
WII HW 0.50m
WIU HW 3.60m
No Change
No Change
3DS HW 9.00m (-3.00m) 3DS HW 8.73m
WII HW 0.46m
WIU HW 3.38m
FYE March 2015 3DS HW 7.60m
WII HW 0.10m
WIU HW 3.40m
No Change No Change No Change 3DS HW 6.79m
WII HW 0.11m
WIU HW 3.26m
FYE March 2016 3DS HW 5.00m
WIU HW 0.80m
No Change 3DS HW 6.00m (+1.00m) 3DS HW 7.20m (+1.20m) 3DS HW 7.27m
WIU HW 0.76m
FYE March 2017 3DS HW 6.00m
SWI HW 10.00m
No Change      
FYE March 2018          


^New alt or what?



Pocky Lover Boy! 

good number on switch. hope there aren't long queues for people buying a nintendo switch.



Where is Kero and Rol fight?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."