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Forums - Sales Discussion - Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - 25th Sept. - 1st Oct 2017

RolStoppable said:

You still have a lot of doubt regarding the Switch. By now it should be easy to see that Switch is better positioned than the 3DS when it comes to hardware image and software lineup. The 3DS will finish with over 70m units lifetime, so throwing out a number like 50m and wondering if Switch can get much further than that comes across as you not wanting to see the Switch being more successful than that.

Still, it's an improvement over two months ago when you used 40m instead of 50m.

Regarding hardware image, I agree with you but as for software lineup I think their both similar so far ... 

FWIW, I always thought there was a good chance for the Switch to reach 50M units and was only certain that it will go above 40M units ... (may my uncertainty meter always tick) 

Switch looks good for now but Nintendo didn't change their initial forecast from the last quarter so they're still expecting to ship ~13M units at the end of this fiscal year which is behind what the 3DS achieved in a similar timeframe ... (there are good reasons why I think up of the numbers as is) 

We'll have to see how the holidays will play out along with the spike in demand during that time to see how long it will affect the supply or MSRP and next year's lineup to truly know if the Switch is 'better positioned' than the 3DS ... (it will be interesting to see if they'll make any changes to their forecast in their Q3 report to get an idea of Nintendo's own current confidence)



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killeryoshis said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

Not really. 2D Mario was a fad...

 

FE Switch will probably be mid or late 2018n

Those "fads" are what cause Nintendo to make 3D Mario more like 2D mario. Those "fads" had 2D mario outselling 3D Mario always. If Nintendo can make an ambitious 3D Mario that is a huge system seller then Nintendo can make an ambitious 2D Mario to become an even bigger system seller. The easy reason being is that Peak 2D Mario will always obliterate Peak 3D Mario. However we will have to wait and see what Nintendo does with 2D Mario first. 

No they weren't. Nintendo make 3D Mario more like 2D Mario because they had to showcase a 3D Mario game that worked and played well on a handheld. They mostly made 3D World for the pun and lack of creativity. Super Mario Land ---> Super Mario World , Super Mario 3D Land ---> Super Mario 3D World

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/3ds.html

All the recent 2D Mario's sold pretty "meh". New Super Mario Bros. U sold 5.7 Million. Super Mario 3D World sold 5.65 mil. No matter how much you want to say "it's cause it's like 2D Mario!" that was pretty unprecedented for a 2D Mario game compared to a 3D one. The only reason New Bros U even outsold World is because it was out since the system launched. These are official Nintendo numbers, by the way. Super Mario 3D Land sold 11.33 mil. New Super Mario Bros. 2 sold 11.44 mil. The gap is not only getting smaller, but will probably start skewing to 3D Mario. Mario Maker sold 3.9 mil. 

Keep in mind pretty much none of those except *maaaaaaaaybe* New Super Mario Bros 2, were even system sellers, and even that is debatable. It required big 3D titles to push hardware. 2D Mario just sells software, it's more like a game series you release because it's easy money. Not because it sells units. 



SuperNova said:

While it's true that the Splatoon Team is an offshoot of the Animal crossing team, almost none of the Splatoon Team ever worked on Animal crossing, they were recruited from all over Nintendo to build a new Team. The main Animal Crossing Team was free to develop something else in the meantime.

Ever since Nintendo restuctured their software departments in 2015, every major Team works on two big games + one small game concurrently. (The only exeption being Team Zelda, who usually work on a console Zelda and a handheld Zelda concurrently with smaller handheld offshoots a la Triforce Heroes inbetween.)

The big games in this case have been Splatoon and Splatoon 2 in quick succession, while the small games have been the dreadful animal crossing party game and Happy Home Designer. That means they are due for the next big game soon.

The Team that is really awol is EAD 4, aka the pikmin Team. Their last release was Mario Maker in 2015...

Sorry for the double posting but this guy posted this right after I posted the last thing. Anyway back on topic.

Yeah that makes a lot of sense.  IDK how big the Animal Crossing team is so I am still wary of saying Animal Crossing is confirmed for 2018.  Splatoon 1 and 2 were probably made quickly because it was using the same engine and the foundation was already set. Also they are going to be updating Splatoon 2 for a year or so straining resources a bit more. If it comes out in 2018 it will be in the Holidays that is for sure or early 2019. 



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killeryoshis said:
 
Miyamotoo said:

You dont know that. They said they aiming to release Pokemon next year. Last Animal Crossing game is released long time ago, there were definitely more than enuf time to prepare new Animal Crossing for 2018. year. I definitely expecting at least one of those two games to be released in 2018. and I think higher chances are for Animal Crossing.

I am not sure about 2D Mario beacuse we already have 2D games for next year, also I am definatly sure we will not get new NSMB game, maybe new kind of 2D Mario or Mario Maker DX/2.

2018 is the earliest the Pokemon game can come.   Also Nintendo has the game as 2018 or later. However between every new generation of Pokemon there is usually 3 years in between. If it comes out in 2018 it will scream "rushed". Sun and Moon came out in 2016 so 2019 seems just right. You got to remember that they are also adjusting to new hardware.  Again the Animal Crossing team just got done making Splatoon 2. So if Animal Crossing is being released next year than it is  mostly a new team. Which could be possible but I think it is less likely.

 

Here is what we know so far for 2018.
Kirby
Fire Emblem
Yoshi

We should expect 
A Mario game
Retro's game

Nintendo usually releases around 8 games a year. There are probably 3 titles that we have no idea what it could be. Animal Crossing could be one of those titles but I don't think it is likely.

 

Pokemon is 2018. or 2019. game, Pokemon Company said they aiming to release it next year. No it want, we actualy had infos that Pokemon for Switch is in development for quite time now. Animal Crossing team (Nintendo EAD) can easily work on multiple projects in same time, also most of Splatoon team is new staff, not to mentione that Splatoon 2 is not big project because they reused lotsa things from Splatoon 1. New Animal Crossing is most likely for quiet time in development. You can bet that we are getting Animal Crossing or Pokemon next year, they are small chanches that we will get even both games next year.

You forgeting that 3DS and Switch development teams are now merged and that all focus is on Switch now (true is that 3DS still getting some small projects, spin offs and ports, but all bigger projects are for Switch), so when you say that Nintendo usually releasing around 8 games a year that don't mean nothing for "new Nintendo" and Switch. What we can expect are folowing games: Smash Bros 4DX/5, Animal Crossing or Pokemon (defiantly one of them, smaller chanches for both of them), Retros game, Next Level Games game, Pikmin 4, some new IP/s, more Wii/WiiU ports, some 3rd party exlusive/s...



RolStoppable said:
fatslob-:O said:

Regarding hardware image, I agree with you but as for software lineup I think their both similar so far ... 

FWIW, I always thought there was a good chance for the Switch to reach 50M units and was only certain that it will go above 40M units ... (may my uncertainty meter always tick) 

Switch looks good for now but Nintendo didn't change their initial forecast from the last quarter so they're still expecting to ship ~13M units at the end of this fiscal year which is behind what the 3DS achieved in a similar timeframe ... (there are good reasons why I think up of the numbers as is) 

We'll have to see how the holidays will play out along with the spike in demand during that time to see how long it will affect the supply or MSRP and next year's lineup to truly know if the Switch is 'better positioned' than the 3DS ... (it will be interesting to see if they'll make any changes to their forecast in their Q3 report to get an idea of Nintendo's own current confidence)

It's rare that projections get adjusted after a single quarter of sales, so you shouldn't reach too much into the lack of an upwards adjustment. Right now there's no good reason to doubt that Switch can ship the projected 10m units and it won't require a price cut to do so. You look at plain sales numbers for the 3DS, but you forget to account for its price cut after six months. Even if Switch ends up below the 3DS's LTD after 13 months, Switch will still be in the better position.

Whether or not an adjustment to Nintendo's forecast happens isn't a matter of confidence, but rather the availability of all necessary components to produce more than 10m Switch units.

AngryLittleAlchemist said:

No they weren't. Nintendo make 3D Mario more like 2D Mario because they had to showcase a 3D Mario game that worked and played well on a handheld. They mostly made 3D World for the pun and lack of creativity. Super Mario Land ---> Super Mario World , Super Mario 3D Land ---> Super Mario 3D World

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/3ds.html

All the recent 2D Mario's sold pretty "meh". New Super Mario Bros. U sold 5.7 Million. Super Mario 3D World sold 5.65 mil. No matter how much you want to say "it's cause it's like 2D Mario!" that was pretty unprecedented for a 2D Mario game compared to a 3D one. The only reason New Bros U even outsold World is because it was out since the system launched. These are official Nintendo numbers, by the way. Super Mario 3D Land sold 11.33 mil. New Super Mario Bros. 2 sold 11.44 mil. The gap is not only getting smaller, but will probably start skewing to 3D Mario. Mario Maker sold 3.9 mil. 

Keep in mind pretty much none of those except *maaaaaaaaybe* New Super Mario Bros 2, were even system sellers, and even that is debatable. It required big 3D titles to push hardware. 2D Mario just sells software, it's more like a game series you release because it's easy money. Not because it sells units. 

This is the kind of attitude that Nintendo shouldn't hold. Fighting the market doesn't do a business any good.

The only reason why 2D Mario and 3D Mario ended up close in the eighth generation is because Nintendo put all ideas into 3D Mario along with higher production values while 2D Mario got recycled art, music and world themes. And despite Nintendo stacking all odds against 2D Mario, 2D Mario still didn't lose. killeryoshis is absolutely correct that a 2D Mario that is treated like a AAA title by Nintendo will obliterate a 3D Mario that gets the same treatment.

 

pretty much. in the wii/DS era both 2D and 3D mario got the same push and what ended up on top? NSMBwii DESTROYED galaxy, one of the most critically acclaimed games of all time.

while 3d world was pushed hard, NSMBU wasn't.



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AngryLittleAlchemist said:
killeryoshis said:

Those "fads" are what cause Nintendo to make 3D Mario more like 2D mario. Those "fads" had 2D mario outselling 3D Mario always. If Nintendo can make an ambitious 3D Mario that is a huge system seller then Nintendo can make an ambitious 2D Mario to become an even bigger system seller. The easy reason being is that Peak 2D Mario will always obliterate Peak 3D Mario. However we will have to wait and see what Nintendo does with 2D Mario first. 

No they weren't. Nintendo make 3D Mario more like 2D Mario because they had to showcase a 3D Mario game that worked and played well on a handheld. They mostly made 3D World for the pun and lack of creativity. Super Mario Land ---> Super Mario World , Super Mario 3D Land ---> Super Mario 3D World

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/3ds.html

All the recent 2D Mario's sold pretty "meh". New Super Mario Bros. U sold 5.7 Million. Super Mario 3D World sold 5.65 mil. No matter how much you want to say "it's cause it's like 2D Mario!" that was pretty unprecedented for a 2D Mario game compared to a 3D one. The only reason New Bros U even outsold World is because it was out since the system launched. These are official Nintendo numbers, by the way. Super Mario 3D Land sold 11.33 mil. New Super Mario Bros. 2 sold 11.44 mil. The gap is not only getting smaller, but will probably start skewing to 3D Mario. Mario Maker sold 3.9 mil. 

Keep in mind pretty much none of those except *maaaaaaaaybe* New Super Mario Bros 2, were even system sellers, and even that is debatable. It required big 3D titles to push hardware. 2D Mario just sells software, it's more like a game series you release because it's easy money. Not because it sells units. 

Sorry even Nintendo disagrees with your statement on why they made 3D mario more like 2D mario. Here is an entire article on that very subject.
If you do not want to read the whole thing here are some parts of the article.

Fast forward to late 2011, and Iwata’s opinion on Super Mario 64 would remain pretty much the same.

“Super Mario 64, which Koizumi-san was a part of the development team, was a game that was praised highly. But at the same time, it created a group of players that felt 3D games were too difficult for them,” said Satoru Iwata.  Later in the interview, Iwata adds the following, “Wandering all around provides a lot of freedom but carries with it the problem of not knowing where to go and getting lost.  In a 2D Super Mario game, you just keep going toward the right and the goal pole is sure to be there. You don’t have to worry about whether you should keep heading in a certain direction.”


“[Super Mario Sunshine] is an authentic sequel to Super Mario 64.  I regret this somewhat — not because of the quality of Super Mario Sunshine, but rather because this Mario game may not attract players who are returning to gaming after some time.” said Miyamoto.

Miyamoto continued, “One thing that has hurt the Mario games…Taking them into 3D, while it has expanded the worlds, has shrunk the user base.  By going into 3D, the games have become more complicated.  Before that, the Mario games were the type of thing that anybody could pick up and play very easily.  By going into the 3D world, we have limited who that game is accessible to.  After Super Mario 64, making a game that those 3D Mario fans can enjoy further requires shrinking the audience even more because you need to go more in depth.  What we did with Mario Sunshine to make it more accessible is that we tried to create it so that you could control the camera any way that you wanted it.  That was how we started development on the game.”

Koichi Hayashida would explain in an Iwata Asks, “I think there is a missing link between 2D and 3D Super Mario. To go back in the history of Super Mario, I feel like there is a chasm between Super Mario World and Super Mario 64.  I wanted to make something that would bridge that gulf, and what did that was the goal pole.”  He further added,  “…we started to think about “how we can establish the game world” as we apply the original 2D Super Mario rules for 3D.  In other words, we tried to imagine how we should make the courses.”

“I analyzed Miyamoto-san’s way of making games and tried to make Super Mario 3D Land the way he made 2D games,” said Hayashida.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Also I wouldn't call the NSMB entries for the Wii U and 3DS as evidence for selling "meh" sales.  The 3DS game had questionable quality and was more of an expansion pack to the last game. Also The Wii U and 3DS 2D mario games released months from each other. 

Also saying 2D Mario is not a system seller? Are you kidding me? NSMBWiiU was a launch title that  helped cause the Wii U to sell 25% of it lifetime sales in its first four and a half months.  It was probably the only thing that kept the Wii U from bombing at launch. Here is another one but for the Wii.  In 2009 the Wii sales were down 40% between March and Spetember. However suddenly in the Holiday of 2009 when NSMBWii came out the Wii broke RECORDS in places like the U.S. But obviously the 2D Mario games were not system sellers. Also 1st quarter sales for 2010 were higher than 1st quarter sales in 2009. Now here the last one for the DS. In early 2006 the PSP was outselling the DS in America. However when NSMB and Brain Age 2 came out the sales went up 354% YOY. 

Also look at the sales data. No 3D Mario game has outsold any of the NES or SNES ones. 



Tag:I'm not bias towards Nintendo. You just think that way (Admin note - it's "biased".  Not "bias")
(killeryoshis note - Who put that there ?)
Switch is 9th generation. Everyone else is playing on last gen systems! UPDATE: This is no longer true

Biggest pikmin fan on VGchartz I won from a voting poll
I am not a nerd. I am enthusiast.  EN-THU-SI-AST!
Do Not Click here or else I will call on the eye of shinning justice on you. 

RolStoppable said:

Sounds like bad times ahead for Japanese third party developers. And who's to blame for all of it? Sony.

Can't deny that this is part of the truth. 

TheWPCTraveler said:
ryuzaki57 said: KT obviously made a bad deal handing over nearly all its games to Switch (ruining Nights of Azure 2 in the process) in exchange of 60K. Let's hope Atelier doesn't suffer from this alliance like NoA2 did.

The italicised part bugs me even more, because - if anything - the Vita held the other two versions back more than the Switch version held back the PS4 one. Unless you want to insinuate, of course, that they didn't just throw the Vita version (upscaled, of course) over and called it a day.

NoA2's problem isn't a technical one. Blue Reflection is the evidence of that, because while there's still a Vita version, Blue Reflection PS4 is Gust's most beautiful game to date. So Vita doesn't hold back anything and neither does Switch. It's a matter of TIME by which the developer can make the best of any version. What happened to NoA2? Gust got a phone call from KT saying they had to make a Switch version from scratch, hence reducing the time to optimize any of the 3, with the result of a PS4 version considerably inferior to Blue Reflection, a compressed story full of holes and sidequests close to nothingness. So Switch is the culprit!



RolStoppable said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

No they weren't. Nintendo make 3D Mario more like 2D Mario because they had to showcase a 3D Mario game that worked and played well on a handheld. They mostly made 3D World for the pun and lack of creativity. Super Mario Land ---> Super Mario World , Super Mario 3D Land ---> Super Mario 3D World

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/3ds.html

All the recent 2D Mario's sold pretty "meh". New Super Mario Bros. U sold 5.7 Million. Super Mario 3D World sold 5.65 mil. No matter how much you want to say "it's cause it's like 2D Mario!" that was pretty unprecedented for a 2D Mario game compared to a 3D one. The only reason New Bros U even outsold World is because it was out since the system launched. These are official Nintendo numbers, by the way. Super Mario 3D Land sold 11.33 mil. New Super Mario Bros. 2 sold 11.44 mil. The gap is not only getting smaller, but will probably start skewing to 3D Mario. Mario Maker sold 3.9 mil. 

Keep in mind pretty much none of those except *maaaaaaaaybe* New Super Mario Bros 2, were even system sellers, and even that is debatable. It required big 3D titles to push hardware. 2D Mario just sells software, it's more like a game series you release because it's easy money. Not because it sells units. 

This is the kind of attitude that Nintendo shouldn't hold. Fighting the market doesn't do a business any good.

The only reason why 2D Mario and 3D Mario ended up close in the eighth generation is because Nintendo put all ideas into 3D Mario along with higher production values while 2D Mario got recycled art, music and world themes. And despite Nintendo stacking all odds against 2D Mario, 2D Mario still didn't lose. killeryoshis is absolutely correct that a 2D Mario that is treated like a AAA title by Nintendo will obliterate a 3D Mario that gets the same treatment.

2D Mario didn't lose because they were launch titles ... they pretty much *did* lose in the long term. I can't say I agree. While it would be great to see Nintendo put a lot of effort into a 2D Mario, assuring quality into a short lived series that was milked to death probably wouldn't make for a console seller. And even then it would probably come out around the holidays, obscuring any sense of whether it's the title selling the hardware or the holiday itself. The reality is a 2D Mario on Switch would probably sell 4, 5, maybe even 6-7 million, but I don't think it would be a huge system seller. It would probably sell systems by itself, maybe even a big amount, but not over a long stretch of time. It would be incredibly short lived, and then it would rely on the holiday to get it past. The general interest just isn't there. These are fun, little, quirky titles you buy along with a system. Not system sellers. You already have Kirby and Yoshi(both by the way should have more effort put into them, i'd rather see them improve than 2D Mario) for families as a backlog title, and maybe a new DKC for the hardcore gamers. None of those games will sell like 2D Mario, but it doesn't really have a place in the system already. Honestly, id be much better for like 2019.

We actually have already seen what Nintendo do when they want to make 2D Mario into an actual project with effort that may even have console sales appeal. It was called Mario Maker. I don't know how much they can improve on that game though, but hey,  I wouldn't be opposed it becoming the Minecraft of Switch!

killeryoshis said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

No they weren't. Nintendo make 3D Mario more like 2D Mario because they had to showcase a 3D Mario game that worked and played well on a handheld. They mostly made 3D World for the pun and lack of creativity. Super Mario Land ---> Super Mario World , Super Mario 3D Land ---> Super Mario 3D World

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/3ds.html

All the recent 2D Mario's sold pretty "meh". New Super Mario Bros. U sold 5.7 Million. Super Mario 3D World sold 5.65 mil. No matter how much you want to say "it's cause it's like 2D Mario!" that was pretty unprecedented for a 2D Mario game compared to a 3D one. The only reason New Bros U even outsold World is because it was out since the system launched. These are official Nintendo numbers, by the way. Super Mario 3D Land sold 11.33 mil. New Super Mario Bros. 2 sold 11.44 mil. The gap is not only getting smaller, but will probably start skewing to 3D Mario. Mario Maker sold 3.9 mil. 

Keep in mind pretty much none of those except *maaaaaaaaybe* New Super Mario Bros 2, were even system sellers, and even that is debatable. It required big 3D titles to push hardware. 2D Mario just sells software, it's more like a game series you release because it's easy money. Not because it sells units. 

Sorry even Nintendo disagrees with your statement on why they made 3D mario more like 2D mario. Here is an entire article on that very subject.
If you do not want to read the whole thing here are some parts of the article.

Fast forward to late 2011, and Iwata’s opinion on Super Mario 64 would remain pretty much the same.

“Super Mario 64, which Koizumi-san was a part of the development team, was a game that was praised highly. But at the same time, it created a group of players that felt 3D games were too difficult for them,” said Satoru Iwata.  Later in the interview, Iwata adds the following, “Wandering all around provides a lot of freedom but carries with it the problem of not knowing where to go and getting lost.  In a 2D Super Mario game, you just keep going toward the right and the goal pole is sure to be there. You don’t have to worry about whether you should keep heading in a certain direction.”


“[Super Mario Sunshine] is an authentic sequel to Super Mario 64.  I regret this somewhat — not because of the quality of Super Mario Sunshine, but rather because this Mario game may not attract players who are returning to gaming after some time.” said Miyamoto.

Miyamoto continued, “One thing that has hurt the Mario games…Taking them into 3D, while it has expanded the worlds, has shrunk the user base.  By going into 3D, the games have become more complicated.  Before that, the Mario games were the type of thing that anybody could pick up and play very easily.  By going into the 3D world, we have limited who that game is accessible to.  After Super Mario 64, making a game that those 3D Mario fans can enjoy further requires shrinking the audience even more because you need to go more in depth.  What we did with Mario Sunshine to make it more accessible is that we tried to create it so that you could control the camera any way that you wanted it.  That was how we started development on the game.”

Koichi Hayashida would explain in an Iwata Asks, “I think there is a missing link between 2D and 3D Super Mario. To go back in the history of Super Mario, I feel like there is a chasm between Super Mario World and Super Mario 64.  I wanted to make something that would bridge that gulf, and what did that was the goal pole.”  He further added,  “…we started to think about “how we can establish the game world” as we apply the original 2D Super Mario rules for 3D.  In other words, we tried to imagine how we should make the courses.”

“I analyzed Miyamoto-san’s way of making games and tried to make Super Mario 3D Land the way he made 2D games,” said Hayashida.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Also I wouldn't call the NSMB entries for the Wii U and 3DS as evidence for selling "meh" sales.  The 3DS game had questionable quality and was more of an expansion pack to the last game. Also The Wii U and 3DS 2D mario games released months from each other. 

Also saying 2D Mario is not a system seller? Are you kidding me? NSMBWiiU was a launch title that  helped cause the Wii U to sell 25% of it lifetime sales in its first four and a half months.  It was probably the only thing that kept the Wii U from bombing at launch. Here is another one but for the Wii.  In 2009 the Wii sales were down 40% between March and Spetember. However suddenly in the Holiday of 2009 when NSMBWii came out the Wii broke RECORDS in places like the U.S. But obviously the 2D Mario games were not system sellers. Also 1st quarter sales for 2010 were higher than 1st quarter sales in 2009. Now here the last one for the DS. In early 2006 the PSP was outselling the DS in America. However when NSMB and Brain Age 2 came out the sales went up 354% YOY. 

Also look at the sales data. No 3D Mario game has outsold any of the NES or SNES ones. 

Well, that is interesting, although I kind of expected that because it seems like that's a very Japanese centric thing to do. I should have added an addendum in my last reply, but basically, I can't say that I didn't believe that already, because it seems like a lot of Japanese gamers are more into 2D games than 3D ones. 

The Wii U did not succeed in it's first few months because of fucking New Super Mario Bros U, are you kidding me? The Wii U suceeded, *barely*, because people put stock in it being a new Nintendo console. Literally all you heard from people who were considering a Wii U(assuming they knew the damned thing) was that they weren't going to get one because they weren't any Nintendo games.

Bringing up the Wii era? Are you serious? I'm not fucking retarded man. Everyone knows the Wii/DS era of 2D mario sold systems! But the Wii U era? Nah. Even the 3DS was boosted more by other titles than New Super Mario Bros(and you could argue the price cut was more so the determining factor). Don't come at me with arguments so poor they're almost condescending. Everyone knows Super Mario Bros was a big deal in the DS/Wii era. we're talking now. What you showed wasn't proof the game sold the Wii U. In retrospect everyone criticized the Wii U because it didn't have a big game like Zelda to sell it months on end. Even your use of statistics is terrible. It literally launched during a holiday season and beyond that the Wii U's sales were so poor that coming up with a 25% figure makes it seem a lot more potent than it really is, to almost misleading degrees. The Wii U sold alot because a new console almost always sells well on launch, especially during a holiday season.



RolStoppable said:

It's rare that projections get adjusted after a single quarter of sales, so you shouldn't reach too much into the lack of an upwards adjustment. Right now there's no good reason to doubt that Switch can ship the projected 10m units and it won't require a price cut to do so. You look at plain sales numbers for the 3DS, but you forget to account for its price cut after six months. Even if Switch ends up below the 3DS's LTD after 13 months, Switch will still be in the better position.

Whether or not an adjustment to Nintendo's forecast happens isn't a matter of confidence, but rather the availability of all necessary components to produce more than 10m Switch units.

Actually, Nintendo has had 3 quarters of Switch sales so far with the report on their third one pending ... (their last forecast was from the Q1 report) 

Switch was released in Q1 (although it didn't have a full quarter) and was sold through Q2 with Q3, now going into Q4 ... 

I didn't forget about the price advantage that the 3DS had but now I see that I've changed your thinking in that you finally came around to acknowledge my point about 3DS's price advantage ...  

I don't doubt that the Switch will be able to ship 10M units at the end of this fiscal year (I very much expect it) however the possibility that the Switch could end up being behind 3DS means that the match up between the two systems are closer than you initially thought ... 



RolStoppable said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

2D Mario didn't lose because they were launch titles ... they pretty much *did* lose in the long term. I can't say I agree. While it would be great to see Nintendo put a lot of effort into a 2D Mario, assuring quality into a short lived series that was milked to death probably wouldn't make for a console seller. And even then it would probably come out around the holidays, obscuring any sense of whether it's the title selling the hardware or the holiday itself. The reality is a 2D Mario on Switch would probably sell 4, 5, maybe even 6-7 million, but I don't think it would be a huge system seller. It would probably sell systems by itself, maybe even a big amount, but not over a long stretch of time. It would be incredibly short lived, and then it would rely on the holiday to get it past. The general interest just isn't there. These are fun, little, quirky titles you buy along with a system. Not system sellers. You already have Kirby and Yoshi(both by the way should have more effort put into them, i'd rather see them improve than 2D Mario) for families as a backlog title, and maybe a new DKC for the hardcore gamers. None of those games will sell like 2D Mario, but it doesn't really have a place in the system already. Honestly, id be much better for like 2019.

We actually have already seen what Nintendo do when they want to make 2D Mario into an actual project with effort that may even have console sales appeal. It was called Mario Maker. I don't know how much they can improve on that game though, but hey,  I wouldn't be opposed it becoming the Minecraft of Switch!

(...)

Well, that is interesting, although I kind of expected that because it seems like that's a very Japanese centric thing to do. I should have added an addendum in my last reply, but basically, I can't say that I didn't believe that already, because it seems like a lot of Japanese gamers are more into 2D games than 3D ones. 

The Wii U did not succeed in it's first few months because of fucking New Super Mario Bros U, are you kidding me? The Wii U suceeded, *barely*, because people put stock in it being a new Nintendo console. Literally all you heard from people who were considering a Wii U(assuming they knew the damned thing) was that they weren't going to get one because they weren't any Nintendo games.

Bringing up the Wii era? Are you serious? I'm not fucking retarded man. Everyone knows the Wii/DS era of 2D mario sold systems! But the Wii U era? Nah. Even the 3DS was boosted more by other titles than New Super Mario Bros(and you could argue the price cut was more so the determining factor). Don't come at me with arguments so poor they're almost condescending. Everyone knows Super Mario Bros was a big deal in the DS/Wii era. we're talking now. What you showed wasn't proof the game sold the Wii U. In retrospect everyone criticized the Wii U because it didn't have a big game like Zelda to sell it months on end. Even your use of statistics is terrible. It literally launched during a holiday season and beyond that the Wii U's sales were so poor that coming up with a 25% figure makes it seem a lot more potent than it really is, to almost misleading degrees. The Wii U sold alot because a new console almost always sells well on launch, especially during a holiday season.

What did 2D Mario do to you?

Nothing I just don't think it will be a system seller. Well, maybe for a month. I don't think it will do much of anything though. It will be the kind of back of your mind thing. Like buying Resogun on PS4 or something. 

I will admit it would be kind of cool if Mario Maker became Nintendo's Minecraft, a huge system seller among kids. I don't expect that though.