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September NPD 2017 prediction thread (yes, here we go again)

Forums - Sales Discussion - September NPD 2017 prediction thread (yes, here we go again)

Which console will sell more

Switch 168 57.73%
 
PlayStation 4 115 39.52%
 
Xbox one 8 2.75%
 
Total:291
Farsala said:
Yeah, a lot of you are predicting a pretty bad September, possibly the worst in recent years. Remember it is 5 weeks.

Thx for the reminder, will up my prediction then

Opdated numbers and added the 3DS and the SNES classic:

Switch: 325k

PS4: 285k

Xbox ONE: 195k

3DS: 155k

SNES: 340k



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My first prediction! I'll probably be extremely wrong lol.
Looking at how high the switch rose on amazon after the restock suggests that demand is still really high, and while it's obviously not representative of nationwide stock levels, I think there will be More of a correlation than others think, as switch production is supposedly increasing around this month (However - few notable releases for switch, and more for PS4). With that in mind:

Switch: 300k

PS4: 295k

XB1: 160k

3ds: 150k

SNES: 310k



Bet with flashfire926: I think switch will win November NPD, and he thinks xbox one will win (if ps4 is victorious, it's a draw). Loser has to state that they lost in the signature for some time.

Farsala said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

In the case of the Switch it all depend on Nintendo stock, doesn't really mean much if September is a better month than August/July. Though recently we saw some new big shipments so... i may change my prediction.

For PS4, August sales are around 191,000 units estimated. Destiny 2 so far is looking like a big drop compared to the first one, and i honestly don't see people buying PS4 for it, Destiny fanbase already has a PS4. Same can be said for FIFA, NBA, and literally everthing in this month. There is a Destiny bundle, which is very expensive tho and he didn't do very well on Amazon, so i don't expect very good performance for that bundle. Imo, PS4 is definitively gonna have a smaller increase MOM compared to last year, while she can still be up YOY, it won't be by a huge margin, after all, last year we saw a price drop and Slim release. I honestly only expect a 15/20% increase in weekly sales, not much more than that.

Same for XB1. Nothing which can have a big impact this month, Destiny, FIFA, NBA ecc all games with a fanbase on XB1 who already have the console, there is no pricedrop or new bundles, so the MOM increase should not be very big. Just look at June for example, even June usually is a big increase over May. yet XB1 only saw boost from 109,000 to 153,000, i think Agust > September should be a similar scenario, or barely better at best.

I might be a bit optimistic for PS4 this year since its been up YoY so many months. But last year had nothing going by the same logic. The top games were sports games and old games. This year we at least have Destiny 2 instead of Taken king or collection of Destiny. And LE bundles tend to just add to sales rather then replace sales.

Edit: Oh and 160k August last year became 191k this year. If we use the same % increase then we get 340k for PS4, but even I am not that optimistic. XB1 will definitely be down because it had a lot going for it last year and this year there is the XB1X.

PS4 had the slim model launch and a price drop to $299 in September 2016.



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

Month is a strange one. Destiny 2 didn't seem to light the world on fire like the last one, anecdotally I noticed a lot of Switch stock in my local stores, and the Xbox probably actually had a decent week for Destiny since they dropped the Madden 18 bundle to $249 and offered Destiny (or any game, but really Destiny) for free along with it. I may add in numbers later, but right now I'm thinking Switch took the month, with PS4 having a decent month and Xbox One having a good boost over last month that is likely to crater even further in October with the price of the Madden bundle rising back to $279. 



The difference with the polls and the posts....



Pocky Lover Boy! 

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Swim 240k
PS4: 210K
XBOX: 90k



Welfare said:
Farsala said:

I might be a bit optimistic for PS4 this year since its been up YoY so many months. But last year had nothing going by the same logic. The top games were sports games and old games. This year we at least have Destiny 2 instead of Taken king or collection of Destiny. And LE bundles tend to just add to sales rather then replace sales.

Edit: Oh and 160k August last year became 191k this year. If we use the same % increase then we get 340k for PS4, but even I am not that optimistic. XB1 will definitely be down because it had a lot going for it last year and this year there is the XB1X.

PS4 had the slim model launch and a price drop to $299 in September 2016.

Did it help sales? IIRC the PS4 slim flopped. And even it it did help sales it was only available for half the month, which means the other half had mediocre August like sales. All the Septembers for PS4 with a new Destiny were superior to it.

Also this article makes it seem like the PS4 was already $299 or similar value. https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2016/09/ps4-slim-review-2/



Farsala said:
Welfare said:

PS4 had the slim model launch and a price drop to $299 in September 2016.

Did it help sales? IIRC the PS4 slim flopped. And even it it did help sales it was only available for half the month, which means the other half had mediocre August like sales. All the Septembers for PS4 with a new Destiny were superior to it.

Also this article makes it seem like the PS4 was already $299 or similar value. https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2016/09/ps4-slim-review-2/

PS4 dropped to $299 the week before the slim launch. 

The price drop/slim helped boost the weekly average over August by 42%. That's bigger than the 2015 boost, +36%.



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

Welfare said:
Farsala said:

Did it help sales? IIRC the PS4 slim flopped. And even it it did help sales it was only available for half the month, which means the other half had mediocre August like sales. All the Septembers for PS4 with a new Destiny were superior to it.

Also this article makes it seem like the PS4 was already $299 or similar value. https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2016/09/ps4-slim-review-2/

PS4 dropped to $299 the week before the slim launch. 

The price drop/slim helped boost the weekly average over August by 42%. That's bigger than the 2015 boost, +36%.

Because it sucked sales out of August, and the numbers were pathetic so a large % increase is not surprising. The actual sales increase was lesser. Lets take another look

2014 Aug+ Sept: 190k+538k= 728k

2015:  209k+ 354k = 563k

2016: 160k+ 285k = 445k

2017: 190k + ??? = ???

If we take weekly avg of August and compare to September, September 2016 was almost equal to August 2015.

2014:  47.5 to 107.6

2015: 52.25 to 70.8

2016: 40 to 57

2017: 47.5 to ???

Ignoring Destiny month, 2 years in a row the PS4 increased by 17k/ w.  Leading to 64.5 * 5= 322.5k. But I am not that optimistic and personally predicted 310k,  which would be quite the disappointing month. Anything less than that would be ridiculously bad imo, of course it could still happen with the Switch effect but so far it hasn't been true.



Farsala said:
Welfare said:

PS4 dropped to $299 the week before the slim launch. 

The price drop/slim helped boost the weekly average over August by 42%. That's bigger than the 2015 boost, +36%.

Because it sucked sales out of August, and the numbers were pathetic so a large % increase is not surprising. The actual sales increase was lesser. Lets take another look

2014 Aug+ Sept: 190k+538k= 728k

2015:  209k+ 354k = 563k

2016: 160k+ 285k = 445k

2017: 190k + ??? = ???

If we take weekly avg of August and compare to September, September 2016 was almost equal to August 2015.

2014:  47.5 to 107.6

2015: 52.25 to 70.8

2016: 40 to 57

2017: 47.5 to ???

Ignoring Destiny month, 2 years in a row the PS4 increased by 17k/ w.  Leading to 64.5 * 5= 322.5k. But I am not that optimistic and personally predicted 310k,  which would be quite the disappointing month. Anything less than that would be ridiculously bad imo, of course it could still happen with the Switch effect but so far it hasn't been true.

No sales were sucked out of August since the slim and price drop were both announced the same week in September.



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287