Quantcast
September NPD 2017 prediction thread (yes, here we go again)

Forums - Sales Discussion - September NPD 2017 prediction thread (yes, here we go again)

Which console will sell more

Switch 168 57.73%
 
PlayStation 4 115 39.52%
 
Xbox one 8 2.75%
 
Total:291
poklane said:
Random_Matt said:
PS4 + Fifa = win.

If anything it's Destiny 2 giving PS4 the win.

Yeah, forgot about that game.



Around the Network
Slarvax said:

You could add the Splatoon 2 Switch Bundle there, though it's exclusive to Walmart.

I can see a virtual tie between PS4 and Switch, but PS4 winning in the end.

PS4 - 280k

NSW - 270k

XBO - 160k

Bonus: SNES - 250k

September is a 5 week month, so I'll increase my numbers.

PS4 - 340k

NSW - 330k

XBO - 200k

SNES - same 250k



Bet with bluedawgs: I say Switch will outsell PS4 in 2018, he says PS4 will outsell Switch. He's now permabanned, but the bet will remain in my sig.

NNID: Slarvax - Steam: Slarvax - Friend Code:  SW 7885-0552-5988

Yeah, a lot of you are predicting a pretty bad September, possibly the worst in recent years. Remember it is 5 weeks.



DroidKnight said:
PS4--245,000
Switch--243,000
Xbox One--143,000

5 week month.  Oops.     Revised #'s  (PS4 300,000,  Switch  298,000,  Xbox 182,000)



...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.

Farsala said:
Yeah, a lot of you are predicting a pretty bad September, possibly the worst in recent years. Remember it is 5 weeks.

In the case of the Switch it all depend on Nintendo stock, doesn't really mean much if September is a better month than August/July. Though recently we saw some new big shipments so... i may change my prediction.

For PS4, August sales are around 191,000 units estimated. Destiny 2 so far is looking like a big drop compared to the first one, and i honestly don't see people buying PS4 for it, Destiny fanbase already has a PS4. Same can be said for FIFA, NBA, and literally everthing in this month. There is a Destiny bundle, which is very expensive tho and he didn't do very well on Amazon, so i don't expect very good performance for that bundle. Imo, PS4 is definitively gonna have a smaller increase MOM compared to last year, while she can still be up YOY, it won't be by a huge margin, after all, last year we saw a price drop and Slim release. I honestly only expect a 15/20% increase in weekly sales, not much more than that.

Same for XB1. Nothing which can have a big impact this month, Destiny, FIFA, NBA ecc all games with a fanbase on XB1 who already have the console, there is no pricedrop or new bundles, so the MOM increase should not be very big. Just look at June for example, even June usually is a big increase over May. yet XB1 only saw boost from 109,000 to 153,000, i think Agust > September should be a similar scenario, or barely better at best.



2020 predictions: NSW 21m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m
(PS5 and XSX predictions will most likely change after we know enough about them)

Around the Network
Random_Matt said:
PS4 + Fifa = win.

Fifa isn't very big in America.



PS4: 270k
Switch: 250k
XBO: 150k

Amazon probably isn't representative for September due to lack of PS4 Slim stock later in the month (apparently, the Uncharted 4 bundle was discontinued, leaving others to pick up the slack). Destiny 2 may give the PS4 a slight boost in weekly average sales vs. August.

Of course, if the PS4 is really hard to find everywhere in general, then it may have a rough time.



Maybe you should mention in the OP that this is a 5-week month.

[PS4] 310k
[NSW] 275k
[XB1] 200k

Switch has been pretty consistent in July and August. I just went with 55k/week. PS4 I tried to find a balance keeping it up YOY but not as high as previous years. XB1 I figured slightly better than previous months. It sold 30k/week in August so I made it 40k.



PS4 -310k
Switch - 300k
SNES - 220k
XBO - 170k
3DS - 150k



Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387

Ryng_Tolu said:
Farsala said:
Yeah, a lot of you are predicting a pretty bad September, possibly the worst in recent years. Remember it is 5 weeks.

In the case of the Switch it all depend on Nintendo stock, doesn't really mean much if September is a better month than August/July. Though recently we saw some new big shipments so... i may change my prediction.

For PS4, August sales are around 191,000 units estimated. Destiny 2 so far is looking like a big drop compared to the first one, and i honestly don't see people buying PS4 for it, Destiny fanbase already has a PS4. Same can be said for FIFA, NBA, and literally everthing in this month. There is a Destiny bundle, which is very expensive tho and he didn't do very well on Amazon, so i don't expect very good performance for that bundle. Imo, PS4 is definitively gonna have a smaller increase MOM compared to last year, while she can still be up YOY, it won't be by a huge margin, after all, last year we saw a price drop and Slim release. I honestly only expect a 15/20% increase in weekly sales, not much more than that.

Same for XB1. Nothing which can have a big impact this month, Destiny, FIFA, NBA ecc all games with a fanbase on XB1 who already have the console, there is no pricedrop or new bundles, so the MOM increase should not be very big. Just look at June for example, even June usually is a big increase over May. yet XB1 only saw boost from 109,000 to 153,000, i think Agust > September should be a similar scenario, or barely better at best.

I might be a bit optimistic for PS4 this year since its been up YoY so many months. But last year had nothing going by the same logic. The top games were sports games and old games. This year we at least have Destiny 2 instead of Taken king or collection of Destiny. And LE bundles tend to just add to sales rather then replace sales.

Edit: Oh and 160k August last year became 191k this year. If we use the same % increase then we get 340k for PS4, but even I am not that optimistic. XB1 will definitely be down because it had a lot going for it last year and this year there is the XB1X.