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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predict Lifetime Sales for All Current Consoles

 

Will 3DS or Switch sell more?

3DS 48 21.82%
 
Switch 132 60.00%
 
Tie (within 5 million) 25 11.36%
 
See results 15 6.82%
 
Total:220
StarDoor on 21 September 2017

We've had a lot of recent prediction threads for Switch, but why leave out the other consoles?

Everyone, please post your predictions of:

Nintendo 3DS
PlayStation 4
Xbox One
Nintendo Switch

Example of a prediction:

3DS: 74M
PS4: 123M
XOne: 55M
NS: 87M

Current results:

  Nintendo 3DS PlayStation 4 Xbox One Nintendo Switch
killeryoshis 75 110 55 110
Captain_Yuri 75 120 60 105
p0isonparadise 73.5 118.5 57 135
Mar1217 76 102 50 88
jason1637 72 127 58 80
AngryLittleAlchemist 74 108 53 88
Cerebralbore101 80 130 60 70
mZuzek 75 122 53 79
DialgaMarine 75 135 55 85
TheBraveGallade 78 105 38 100
mexicanparrot 75 125 45 150
GProgrammer 72 125 55 50
Manlytears 75 115 53 65
PAOerfulone 78 125 50 95
Slarvax 74 130 62 90
malistix1985 74 118 60 74
ThatDreamcastTho 70 90 40 40
ironmanDX 72.5 98.5 61 72
STARLEZZ 70 110 55 90
LipeJJ 75 102 53 90
xl-klaudkil   115 50 90
CGcarmineCG 83 135 50 100
Green098 78 115 55 85
atomicblue 71 99 49 122
Barkley 72 110 55 70
Ka-pi96 72 115 54 80
torok 74 130 60 90
derpysquirtle64 72 114 57 100
Pok87 77 120 48 85
Teeqoz 75 113 53 96
PEEPer0nni 77 123 52 84
Vinther1991 72 135 61 85
JSG87 69 105 45 100
Hiku 72 115 55  
JRPGfan 77 120 55 85
CleggaZ 75 100 55 70
Metroid33slayer 79 122 55 91
Platina 73 105 58 75
Qwark 75 115 55 80
Bofferbrauer2 78 112 46 118
Nemesis1993 69.5 125.5 52 83
Nymeria 72 112 62 92
Rafie 75 110 73 82
couchmonkey 75 110 55 100
kljesta64 75 109 70 90
Pachofilauri 70 100 60 75
Keybladewielder 75 115 55 85
DroidKnight 73 111 67 81
Alby_da_Wolf 76 115 65 110
Medisti 75 120 55 100
Tulipanzo 75 110 45 80
NobleTeam360 74 102 48 83
KBG29 75 200 70 120
Miyamotoo 75 110 55 100
thismeintiel 75 120 50 75
bluedawgs 75 140 45 85
         
MEAN 74.45 116.85 54.79 89.15
STDEV 2.68 15.44 6.91 18.38
MEDIAN 75 115 55 85
MAX 83 200 73 150
MIN 69 90 38 40


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killeryoshis on 21 September 2017

3DS: 75M
PS4: 110M
Xbox One: 55M
Nintendo Switch: 110M



Tag:I'm not bias towards Nintendo. You just think that way (Admin note - it's "biased".  Not "bias")
(killeryoshis note - Who put that there ?)
Switch is 9th generation. Everyone else is playing on last gen systems! UPDATE: This is no longer true

Biggest pikmin fan on VGchartz I won from a voting poll
I am not a nerd. I am enthusiast.  EN-THU-SI-AST!
Do Not Click here or else I will call on the eye of shinning justice on you. 

Jizz_Beard_thePirate on 21 September 2017

3DS: 75M
PS4: 120M
Xbox One: 60M
Nintendo Switch: 105M

Hard to tell for the switch really since it is still too early.



                  

PC Specs: CPU: 7800X3D || GPU: Strix 4090 || RAM: 32GB DDR5 6000 || Main SSD: WD 2TB SN850

p0isonparadise on 21 September 2017

Switch - 135.0 million
PS4 - 118.5 million
3DS - 73.5 million
XOne - 57.0 million



jason1637 on 21 September 2017

Nintendo 3DS: 72 million
PlayStation 4: 127 million
Xbox One: 58 million
Nintendo Switch: 80 million



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AngryLittleAlchemist on 21 September 2017

PS4 : 108 million

Switch : 88 million

3DS : 74 million

Xbox One : I know that we're not supposed to have two different estimates, but it's a bit unfair that we don't know if Xbox One started with 26 mil the beginning of this year, or 30 mil this year. So i'll just say this :

If it's at 26 mil in the beginning of this year, than 51 mil. If it started at 30 mil than 56 mil.



StarDoor on 21 September 2017
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

PS4 : 108 million

Switch : 88 million

3DS : 74 million

Xbox One : I know that we're not supposed to have two different estimates, but it's a bit unfair that we don't know if Xbox One started with 26 mil the beginning of this year, or 30 mil this year. So i'll just say this :

If it's at 26 mil in the beginning of this year, than 51 mil. If it started at 30 mil than 56 mil.

Doesn't VGChartz say that it started at 28 million at the beginning of this year?

Anyway, I'm just gonna put you down as 53.5 million.



AngryLittleAlchemist on 21 September 2017
StarDoor said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

PS4 : 108 million

Switch : 88 million

3DS : 74 million

Xbox One : I know that we're not supposed to have two different estimates, but it's a bit unfair that we don't know if Xbox One started with 26 mil the beginning of this year, or 30 mil this year. So i'll just say this :

If it's at 26 mil in the beginning of this year, than 51 mil. If it started at 30 mil than 56 mil.

Doesn't VGChartz say that it started at 28 million at the beginning of this year?

Anyway, I'm just gonna put you down as 53.5 million.

Superdata/Buisness Insider have it at 26. 



StarDoor on 21 September 2017
AngryLittleAlchemist said:
StarDoor said:

Doesn't VGChartz say that it started at 28 million at the beginning of this year?

Anyway, I'm just gonna put you down as 53.5 million.

Superdata/Buisness Insider have it at 26. 

Does anyone say it was at 30?



Cerebralbore101 on 21 September 2017

3DS: 75 Million
PS4: 110 Million
XB1: 50 Million
Switch: 50 Million

3DS still sells about five million a year and should have three more years of console production. I think the third year should slow down a ton, but that's easily another 10 million units by the time Nintendo finally pulls the plug.

PS4: It's at 62 million so far, and still sells around 100,000-200,000 units a week. The system still has five to six years before Sony finally stops production. Keep in mind that both the PS3 and PS2 were still being made years after their successors launched.

XB1: MS has given up but they still match 3DS sales. Over the next four years they should be able to stick to 5 million a year or so. I don't see the XB1 staying in production for as long as the other systems though. MS is retreating from the console market. XB1X is their last console model.

Switch: I think it will have a life cycle of five years (like most home-based Nintendo consoles), but unless there is a drastic hardware revision, it won't pass much beyond 50 million units. Keep in mind that Switch is popular with *gamers*, not the general public. There's a core audience of 25 million Nintendo fans most of who skipped the Wii U, and then there's about 25 million general gamers who will pick it up. IMO anything past 60 million Switches sold lifetime would be a miracle. But on the bright side, I think Switch will have a massive software attach rate, and will make Nintendo a ton of money.

The successor to the Switch will be the last man standing in a console apocalypse, where Sony/MS have left the market and every game is $80 on release with a digital only version, and $30 worth of DLC planned a month after release.