Credit Suisse Lifts Nintendo Rating to Outperform, Predicts 130 Million Switch Units Sold by 2022

Forums - Sales Discussion - Credit Suisse Lifts Nintendo Rating to Outperform, Predicts 130 Million Switch Units Sold by 2022

Do you think this will happen?

Yes 88 25.66%
No 179 52.19%
Not sure 53 15.45%
I will not make a prediction 23 6.71%
StarDoor said:
DialgaMarine said:
Interesting. Since it's already tracking behind PS4, what does that mean for PS4?

I don't see Switch doing DS numbers, simply because DS-level of success for a portable simply don't exist outside of Japan. Being a hybrid console, Switch's success is going to be determined on which crowd buys it more; I personally think the majority of Switch are buying it as a home console.

I'm still thinking around 80M, lifetime.

You do realize that, as of two fiscal quarters, PS4 tracks ahead of every console ever, including PS2 and Nintendo DS? That's hardly a metric for gauging how well Switch will sell versus PS4 in the long run. PS4 had the absolute strongest start of any console, but it never quite reached the heights of PS2 or even PS1 peak sales (22.5 and 21.6 million in a year, respectively,) let alone the peaks of DS or Wii (31.2 and 26.0 million).

I'm not saying that Switch will do DS numbers, but judging its long-term potential based on PS4's launch sales is absurd.

 Why are you talking in past tense, like PS4 is already over and done? It hasn't even finished it's fourth year on the market, and we still don't know if this will in fact be it's peak year; people are simply assuming that based off of past sales trends. It's still tracking ahead of PS2 in aligned Charts, so we will see how it does in the long run. I doubt it will stay ahead of PS2, but I still see it doing 130M+ in its lifetime. 

0331 Happiness is a belt-fed weapon

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RolStoppable said:
Paul said:
I can see vgchartz regaining it's old glory through the next few years if this is true. All the old nintendo fan boys will come out of hiding to savour the salty tears of fanboy meltdowns.

I was in hiding for 5 years after the wii u debacle.

Welcome back, Paul. I've seen a couple others of your recent posts. Good to see you back.

And yes, the next few years will be glorious.

I got no such welcome back :(

Is this prediction serious? He's basing it off Famitsu data? Japan looks to be by far the Switch's strongest territory (relatively speaking), but I really can't see it selling as well elsewhere as it does in Japan. Japan =/= world

Bet Shiken that COD would outsell Battlefield in 2018. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8749702

This is definitely most optimistic prediction we saw until now, and of course it's hardly achievable, on other hand Switch is still supply constrained and we still dont know for what Switch is capable, also I think that Switch will be family of systems similar like 3DS was, so it's not impossible of course.

In any case, this predictions are positive for Switch and Nintendo in case, because expectations for Switch are rising.

Well, why not ?

But I don't think data we have really allow to make such prediction.

The switch is a great device and its sales are extremely strong. But because of stock problems, it is tough to see its true potential (could be close but could be much better as well).

Switch will do great but will it be a juggernaut ? I won't hasard a guess right now.

If Nintendo is able to sort all stock issues this holiday (very unlikely) we will have a clearer idea.

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Switch won't hit 100m, never mind 130m.

LTD Sales Predictions: PS4 - 130m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 52m
2019 Sales : PS4 - 15m, Switch - 18.8m, XBO - 4.8m
2020 Sales: Switch - 22m (Peak Year)

that's hard to see... but maybe he knows more!!!


fedfed said:
that's hard to see... but maybe he knows more!!!

He knows as much as pachter!

Bet Shiken that COD would outsell Battlefield in 2018. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8749702

~15 million in ~9 months for 2017. Implies 20m pretty easily doable next year. Price cuts, more people than DS/Wii era, more people willing to buy multiple systems because it is portable. I'd go 125m by end of 2022, not by March 2022, but it's not crazy. Will beat Wii in Japan, has a good shot at beating Wii in the US without DS/X360 existing as successful platforms co-currently for most of its life. Also can't have its legs cut out from under it by both Microsoft & Sony - not expecting a portable/console hybrid from Microsoft AND Sony - ala Kinect & Move. Possible from Sony eventually, but they may not have the stomach after the PSP->Vita fall off. The Wii was a motion monopoly from 2006-2010 and then had two competitors after, so it fell off. Switch has maybe one competitor down the line. Switch is a blend of Wii/DS if you imagine PSP/Move/Kinect never existed.

People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

While it's extremely unlikely, it's not out of the question either. If Nintendo sold better in Europe and had more market penetration outside NA, Europe, and Japan I'd see it as likely.