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Forums - Sales Discussion - Credit Suisse Lifts Nintendo Rating to Outperform, Predicts 130 Million Switch Units Sold by 2022

 

Do you think this will happen?

Yes 112 29.17%
 
No 189 49.22%
 
Not sure 60 15.63%
 
I will not make a prediction 23 5.99%
 
Total:384
SKMBlake said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

Not really? Predicting software sales will always be less consequential than hardware sales. 

Yeah but predicting a Mario Kart game would have its sales vanished after its first year for a Nintendo console is by every mean, a bad prediction. 

Yea but considering every other prediction I had for the Switch was more or less reasonable for the time period, I don't really see the point in using such hyperbole. I'm not a Nintendo hater or anything so it just feels unnecessary. 

I can only guess what I was thinking at the time, but I probably was under the mindset that if 8 Deluxe didn't sell as well as it is doing now (which there wasn't really much indication that it would), it might get replaced by a sequel instead of cannabilizing it. Again, that's not a good prediction at all, and i'm not even sure if that was my prediction at the time, but it's a lot better than just thinking a Mario Kart game wouldn't have legs, which is something I'm 99.99% sure I would have never thought. So that's my only explanation. 

Edit: Now that I think about it, it's very likely that's why I said that, because I was under the impression that Mario Kart 8 being such an old game meant we had to get a 9 eventually, and that the Mario Kart team wouldn't be underutilized on Switch. Oh how I feel bad about never getting that game on Switch, one of the biggest gaping holes in it's library even if 8 Deluxe satisfies me. 



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Paul said:

I can see vgchartz regaining it's old glory through the next few years if this is true. All the old nintendo fan boys will come out of hiding to savour the salty tears of fanboy meltdowns.

I was in hiding for 5 years after the wii u debacle.

I also stayed away from VGChartz in the eighth generation of consoles, lol. I used the site a lot in the heyday of the DS and Wii, but in the next generation I only read a few things related to the 3DS, since the Wii U didn't interest me. Switch brought me and several Nintendo fans back, and I must admit that it's quite fun to see the releases and, of course, the spectacular sales of our beloved hybrid console.



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TruckOSaurus said:
Ka-pi96 said:

If it says "by" then it doesn't include 2022 full stop.

If you say you're going to be at work by 9am, it means you'll get there before 9am not at 9:30am. Likewise if you say "by 2022" then that means if it's 2022 then it will already be done, not that it will be done part way through 2022.

It would only include 2022 if it was "by the end of 2022", but it's not, so it doesn't.

It looks like that was an error on the part of the OP though, since the original source uses different wording.

The original title from the article is "Nintendo Lifted to Outperform by Credit Suisse" and the text itself says "Credit Suisse now forecasts Nintendo to sell 130 million Switch consoles through to 2022, up from 70 million, as it says the device sells like a handheld console rather than a traditional console."

So the "by 2022" was added by the OP, so the prediction was most likely for March 2017 to end of 2022.

In my defense, I probably copied the thread title from somewhere else but it has been so long I do not remember. 

Also, funny how this so close to being true! Everyone thought this was crazy back in the day. The sky is the limit! PS2 and DS are going down! 



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It's encouraging to see some analysts that actually know what they are doing.  This is a great prediction and shows they did their homework.  More people should be listening to these analysts and ignoring basically all of the others, lol.  Good job!



RolStoppable said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

It's encouraging to see some analysts that actually know what they are doing.  This is a great prediction and shows they did their homework.  More people should be listening to these analysts and ignoring basically all of the others, lol.  Good job!

Eh, his position isn't particularly strong. Direct quote from the analyst in the article:

"As Nintendo’s Switch is a unique game platform for use as either a console or handheld, there was initially some uncertainty over whether its sales cycle would more closely resemble that of a console or handheld. Although the Switch is currently categorized as more of a console, we expect it to sell like a handheld. Many users are in fact using the Switch as a portable according to a Famitsu survey of users. We previously projected a sales peak at about three years after launch (i.e., in FY3/19) on the assumption of a console-like sales cycle. Now that the Switch looks more likely to sell like a handheld, we update our sales forecast to reflect a longer sales cycle. We now expect the Switch to achieve peak sales about five years after launch (i.e., around FY3/20–21) like a typical handheld game device. We also raise our peak-year sales forecast from 25mn to 31mn units."

Sounds much more like a hunch than an actually grounded prediction, especially because of the sentence I highlighted. The typical handheld does not peak about five years after launch. It's clear that he expected Switch sales to be similar to the DS sales curve, but the actual reasoning in this quote is next to non-existent.

With the data we have today where we know that consumers have the choice between hybrid and handheld SKU, with the hybrid being the far more popular choice everywhere in the world, the reasoning of Credit Suisse doesn't hold up. This is more of a case where someone got it right for the wrong reason, but granted, back then they were going against the grain and it takes guts to do that when you are in the business of giving financial guidance, because you are putting your reputation on the line.

A few points:

1) The number prediction is more important than the precise wording.  English is not their first language, because they are a Swiss group, so we have to somewhat guess what the precise meaning of their wording is.  At the same time I haven't seen any other group making predictions in 2017 that are looking to be this accurate.  They could have said, instead, that it would sell like a handheld device and total 66m by 2022.  In that case they'd be basing it off 3DS sales and still be majorly lowballing.  The accuracy of the numbers is what matters.  Scientifically speaking, you don't prove something by being right, but you do disprove something by being wrong.  So, while we can't be sure that they had the right reasoning, we can be sure that all other analyst groups had the wrong reasoning.  This is the only group that has a possibility of using the right reasoning.  Given how rare a good Switch prediction from an analyst group is, they desire major credit for this prediction.


2) The typical handheld actually does peak during its fifth fiscal year.  It should be clear from the context they are talking about fiscal years.  (FY3/20-21 means the third quarter of the 20-21 fiscal year).  Here is the fiscal year that each Nintendo and Sony handheld peaked.

Gameboy 13
GBA 4
DS 5
3DS 3
PSP 5
PS Vita 2

The median of these numbers is 4.5.  The mean is 5.3.  The word typical implies median, but they could have also meant mean and the translation was imprecise.  Either way, both of these numbers round to 5.  It is especially understandable why they'd round the median up to 5, since Switch's first FY lasted less than a month.  And of course the peak sales quarter during any year is going to be the holiday quarter.


3) The hybrid vs. handheld dichotomy is not how anyone would have framed their reasoning in 2017.  Instead they would have based their prediction on past data.  Which data do they focus on?  Home or handheld?  If a person want to play games both at home and on the go, before the Switch, then what kind of device would they buy?

Say a person living in 2008 wanted to buy one device and they wanted to play games both at home and on the go.  Would they buy a Wii or DS?  They would buy a DS.  The Wii can't play games on the go.  The DS can play games both at home and on the go.  Sure you can't hook the DS up to a TV.  That makes Switch a better product than the DS.  That also makes hybrid Switch a better product than Switch Lite.  But a person can still play games on the DS at home if they want.  Therefore, the Switch and the DS perform the same basic function, but the Switch does it much better.  Both devices enable a person to play games anywhere.  But at home a person with a Switch gets a performance fairly similar to a PS4, and is much more convenient for local multiplayer.  The DS's performance never got anywhere close to a Wii or PS3, and you have to buy multiple devices for local multiplayer.  So they both do the same job, but the hybrid Switch does it much better. 

At any rate, the hybrid Switch performs the same function as a handheld.  You can play it anywhere.  That is why it makes sense to say it will sell like a handheld.  Clearly, they were bullish on the Switch even before they made this prediction.  They revised the peak year up from 25m to 31m.  They were trying to conclude if Switch would be a Wii-like success or a DS-like success and eventually concluded it would be a DS-like success.

Essentially, they were right on the money with this prediction, and the precision of the numbers shows it.  They were the only analyst group to be right about the level of Switch's success, and they were also more accurate than any individual on vgchartz.  I don't recall anyone here giving a precise number on Switch's sales for an exact and long time period like 6 years and being even remotely close.  In short, they are an actual reputable analyst group and they deserve credit.  They performed real analysis.  They are not a bunch of Michael Pachter's who have the title "analyst" while actually having a law degree, which is useless for data analysis.  When this specific of a prediction is this accurate, then it deserves credit, especially when most analysts are spewing garbage.



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RolStoppable said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

A few points:

1) The number prediction is more important than the precise wording.  English is not their first language, because they are a Swiss group, so we have to somewhat guess what the precise meaning of their wording is.  At the same time I haven't seen any other group making predictions in 2017 that are looking to be this accurate.  They could have said, instead, that it would sell like a handheld device and total 66m by 2022.  In that case they'd be basing it off 3DS sales and still be majorly lowballing.  The accuracy of the numbers is what matters.  Scientifically speaking, you don't prove something by being right, but you do disprove something by being wrong.  So, while we can't be sure that they had the right reasoning, we can be sure that all other analyst groups had the wrong reasoning.  This is the only group that has a possibility of using the right reasoning.  Given how rare a good Switch prediction from an analyst group is, they desire major credit for this prediction.


2) The typical handheld actually does peak during its fifth fiscal year.  It should be clear from the context they are talking about fiscal years.  (FY3/20-21 means the third quarter of the 20-21 fiscal year).  Here is the fiscal year that each Nintendo and Sony handheld peaked.

Gameboy 13
GBA 4
DS 5
3DS 3
PSP 5
PS Vita 2

The median of these numbers is 4.5.  The mean is 5.3.  The word typical implies median, but they could have also meant mean and the translation was imprecise.  Either way, both of these numbers round to 5.  It is especially understandable why they'd round the median up to 5, since Switch's first FY lasted less than a month.  And of course the peak sales quarter during any year is going to be the holiday quarter.


3) The hybrid vs. handheld dichotomy is not how anyone would have framed their reasoning in 2017.  Instead they would have based their prediction on past data.  Which data do they focus on?  Home or handheld?  If a person want to play games both at home and on the go, before the Switch, then what kind of device would they buy?

Say a person living in 2008 wanted to buy one device and they wanted to play games both at home and on the go.  Would they buy a Wii or DS?  They would buy a DS.  The Wii can't play games on the go.  The DS can play games both at home and on the go.  Sure you can't hook the DS up to a TV.  That makes Switch a better product than the DS.  That also makes hybrid Switch a better product than Switch Lite.  But a person can still play games on the DS at home if they want.  Therefore, the Switch and the DS perform the same basic function, but the Switch does it much better.  Both devices enable a person to play games anywhere.  But at home a person with a Switch gets a performance fairly similar to a PS4, and is much more convenient for local multiplayer.  The DS's performance never got anywhere close to a Wii or PS3, and you have to buy multiple devices for local multiplayer.  So they both do the same job, but the hybrid Switch does it much better. 

At any rate, the hybrid Switch performs the same function as a handheld.  You can play it anywhere.  That is why it makes sense to say it will sell like a handheld.  Clearly, they were bullish on the Switch even before they made this prediction.  They revised the peak year up from 25m to 31m.  They were trying to conclude if Switch would be a Wii-like success or a DS-like success and eventually concluded it would be a DS-like success.

Essentially, they were right on the money with this prediction, and the precision of the numbers shows it.  They were the only analyst group to be right about the level of Switch's success, and they were also more accurate than any individual on vgchartz.  I don't recall anyone here giving a precise number on Switch's sales for an exact and long time period like 6 years and being even remotely close.  In short, they are an actual reputable analyst group and they deserve credit.  They performed real analysis.  They are not a bunch of Michael Pachter's who have the title "analyst" while actually having a law degree, which is useless for data analysis.  When this specific of a prediction is this accurate, then it deserves credit, especially when most analysts are spewing garbage.

1. First off, do you have trouble to determine what I mean when I post on this site?

The reason why it's important to be right for the right reason(s) is that it greatly increases the likelihood to be right again. Sure, all other analysts were wrong and that's why they shouldn't be trusted with their future Nintendo predictions, but I wouldn't trust Credit Suisse much more despite them giving out a much better number.

2. 'Typical' refers to something that occurs for a clear majority of time. At best you get a 3 out of 6 off your list, so calling that the typical peak year is a stretch already.

By the way, the '3' in FY3/20 refers to the month of March, i.e. the fiscal year ending March 2020.

3. I'd give more credit to their prediction if there was something in there that showed an indisputable understanding of the console market. In the future I definitely won't say that Credit Suisse's latest prediction is gold because they were in the right ballpark with a number before.

You are referring to the mode.  The words "typical" and "average" are synonyms.  Either word can refer to the mean, median or mode.  It depends on the context.  I am used to people saying "typical" to refer to median, but after doing a search I found that "typical" is used for all of these words often enough.

Anyway, after re-reading the quote I realized they are in fact referring to the median.  When they say FY3/20-21 they are saying sales might peak during the 4th or 5th year, which means they are using the median of 4.5.  It's more clear if you look at the original report.
https://research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&sourceid=em&document_id=1079801171&serialid=pwMYHIAoM%2bOiN6Sn2aeLEC%2fYdZsjMzeiXCJVhZTPgCQ%3d

I looked over the first few pages.  It's an interesting read.  The biggest mistake I can find is that they consider DS+3DS to be one family of systems with a really long sales curve.  In the end that is not going to throw their prediction off until they get to years 7+.  

I definitely give them credit for figuring out that it will sell like a handheld and a very successful one at that.  Most predictions I saw, either from analysts or from old posts on here, assume Switch is a home console and then conclude it will sell like the Wii U.  These analysts not only figured that Switch would attract the handheld market, but it would be a very successful handheld at that.  They definitely aren't perfect, but I have to give credit where credit is due.  Most people in 2017 were no where close to being right.



AngryLittleAlchemist said:
Slarvax said:

I think this will be possibly if Nintendo accomplishes some things first. Obviously, fix the supply issues as soon as possible; but also release the Switch in most of the major markets (South America and China to be specific) and embrace them, and get some price parity across the world (like why is the Switch so expensive in Europe? And you bet it'll also be that expensive in China and South America).

Edit: they're showing interest in China with the MOBA game from Tencent, hopefully they keep going that way.

And they'd have .... hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaveeeeeeeeee to make a 2nd Zelda and a new Mario Kart. I think i'm the only one predicting that 8 Deluxe will taper off pretty quickly after 2017

Oof! This was bad even 4 years ago.

Reminds me of Polygon saying MK8 would only sell 1.2 million or whatever.



Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

monocle_layton said:

Remember all the people saying it would be Wii U 2.0? It was apparently too clunky, undesired, terribly advertised, and too expensive.

Good times.

and then Breath of the Wild and Mario Oddessey happened.

2 of the best games I have ever played. And then it just pilled on. Got some good ports, then 3rd party games... ya.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

I'm quite sceptical about NS selling 130M by 2022, but I'm also quite sure it will sell more than 130M lifetime, unless Ninty kills it early.



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Remember when Credit Suisse "optimistically" predicted 49M over 5 years back in april 2017?

"We believe the Nintendo Switch is strongly positioned as a hybrid home console/handheld device, and thus expect uptake of 49mn units over five years, on par with the Super Nintendo Entertainment System (SNES)"

Now they are predicting pretty much the same amount of sales in just two years!

Source: https://plus.credit-suisse.com/rpc4/ravDocView?docid=_XA5f2AA-WEp4nY