You're only estimating 10 million actually sold this year? Or are you using that as a placeholder because its Nintendo's own estimate? I'm thinking around 12 million.

OT: I agree with Rol on 2021.

Well, this is a bit misleading. Go by weeks instead of months. 3DS launched in the final week of March so its first two months (March + April) were the same number of weeks as Switch's first month alone (since it launched the first week of March). When I said "a comparable amount of time," I was technically referencing 7 months of NPD results because 3DS through September was 27 weeks while Switch through August is 26. It's more fair than comparing 3DS at 22 weeks to Switch at 26.

Also, August was the month of the 3DS's price cut so its sales were a bit inflated. 3DS's weekly average in September was a bit lower than the Switch's weekly average in July (and probably August, though we don't know for sure).

Believe in 12.5m

Looking at nowinstock, it seems that supply has matched demand in all countries but Japan. So, we need numbers over the next few months to see how well the Switch is selling.

I'd have to see how much sales pick up in its second year before I'd personally be comfortable making an estimation. I definitely think it will outsell the 3DS though and it won't even be close.

Four to five years, minimum.