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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - When will the Switch outsell 3DS (lifetime)?

 

When will the Switch ousell the 3DS (lifetime numbers)?

2020, because it will do 240M lifetime. 21 10.50%
 
2021 44 22.00%
 
2022 36 18.00%
 
2023 14 7.00%
 
2024 7 3.50%
 
2025 2 1.00%
 
2026 1 0.50%
 
2027 1 0.50%
 
2028, Nintendo won't quit. Matter of honor. 4 2.00%
 
Never, 3DS is king. Sorry, Switch. 70 35.00%
 
Total:200

Well, I actually had the idea after seeing CosmicSex thread about PS4 outselling the 3DS. It is an interesting topic, but most consider it basically a given at this point. So I decided to try a more difficult question so we can look back in a few years and see who got it closer. When will the Switch outsell 3DS lifetime? Will it manage to do it?

I added a poll with different years (if someone want to try to predict the exact quarter, just post it on the thread). I will not be using fiscal quarters, so Q4 is the last 3 months of the year instead of being the first 3 of the next calendar year.

I will start with 2020, since that's waaay earlier than it could actually make it. Just to situate everyone, most seem to agree that PS4 will do it in Q4, so it took 4 full years to do so. Mind that 3DS will be a few million units ahead of current numbers when Switch starts to approach it.

My personal prediction is Q4 2022, around 5 years to do so. I guessing that Switch will have a slightly slower pace than PS4 and, while cheaper models will move a lot of units, it will suffer increased competition from the next gen after 2019 or 2020. So, what's your take, VGC members?

 



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Q4 2022 is my guess, 3DS will probably finish at like 74m by the end of next year, I can see Switch selling for just as long or even longer than the 3DS has mind you.



Very end of Q1 - very start of Q2 2023.



"Just for comparison Uncharted 4 was 20x bigger than Splatoon 2. This shows the huge difference between Sony's first-party games and Nintendo's first-party games."

Never, Nintendo will support and sell the 3DS until they go bankrupt.
In 2025 the New New Super 3DS will come out.



I think it's more of a question of "if" rather than "when". We have to see what 2018 and onwards look like to make a more accurate guess anyway.



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I'll go with early 2023 myself, putting into account the extra 3DS sales that could occur during those years.



I honestly don't think it will.



If Switch coninues to deliver on it's promise and the momentum keeps up, I'm thinking late 2021 to early 2022.

The 3DS is still getting good support, but it'll probably start to taper off in 2018. It will probably reach 75m or just short of it, the current Switch sales trends give reason to be optimistic about it's life time, so I'm thinking it will beat the 3ds within 5 years.



I'm still not buying completely that the Switch is the next Wii in terms of sales... it's definitely selling great and will be a success, but there's some potential bumps in it's future. One that worries me a little is that the hardware gap will continue to grow, though a midgen refresh for the Switch may help with that.

Otherwise, the 3DS is still selling, bringing out new models and designs, and continue to announce more games for it. It also still serves as their lower entry cost handheld, so they probably won't drop it in the immediate future.

With that in mind, and considering that it took four years for the hugely successful PS4 to get into the 60's (millions), I think it might catch it some time in 2022. I'd love to see it overtake the 3ds sooner tho, as it'd be great if the Switch continued to be a gigantic success.



RolStoppable said:
Johnw1104 said:

I'm still not buying completely that the Switch is the next Wii in terms of sales... it's definitely selling great and will be a success, but there's some potential bumps in it's future. One that worries me a little is that the hardware gap will continue to grow, though a midgen refresh for the Switch may help with that.

Otherwise, the 3DS is still selling, bringing out new models and designs, and continue to announce more games for it. It also still serves as their lower entry cost handheld, so they probably won't drop it in the immediate future.

With that in mind, and considering that it took four years for the hugely successful PS4 to get into the 60's (millions), I think it might catch it some time in 2022. I'd love to see it overtake the 3ds sooner tho, as it'd be great if the Switch continued to be a gigantic success.

"I am worried about Switch sales in the long term due to processing power."

"3DS is still going strong in 2017 with less than GameCube processing power and a 240p screen."

Those are two very different markets. The attraction of the more expensive option is that it can play console quality games and (hopefully) continue to receive 3rd party ports of contemporary AAA titles. There are no such expectations for the 3DS, with its library being tailor made specifically for the 3DS itself.