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Make your call: how long until Switch exceeds "X1family".

Forums - Sales Discussion - Make your call: how long until Switch exceeds "X1family".

How long util Switch exceeds "X1 family" in sales.

2 years!!! Switch for the... 177 27.79%
 
3 years, strong sales. be... 202 31.71%
 
4 years. It's hard, but ... 134 21.04%
 
5 years, or more. X1 sale... 49 7.69%
 
Never. Ya can't beat &q... 75 11.77%
 
Total:637

Probably 4 years but it really will not be that big of a deal because by then the switch will have become a fully fledged hand held device replacing the 3ds and because of it underpowered specs Nintendo will have had to release another home console by that stage - just to keep from being too behind in the specs department.



Xbox 360 and Xbox One

Gamertag:  GamertagOz70

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UltimateGamer1982 said:

According to Microsoft, those were only for the super limited Scorpio edition. Of course it would sell out quickly if only a small number were being produced. But without numbers, that statement doesn't hold much weight. The regular edition X isn't available for preorder yet. 

I am aware. But it does set a thing called a "Precedent".

Besides, most consoles typically sell super well on their launch, even consoles that ended up being some of the biggest flops like the Wii U.. Which means it will have an effect over this Holiday Period, just like the Playstation 4 Pro did after it's initial release.

The important question is... Will Microsoft be able to carry that momentum like Nintendo with the Switch? Over the long term, most people would stamp that with a big fat "no".



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

 

VGC number : Late 2020.

Real number : First half 2020.



Pemalite said:
caffeinade said:

Aside from being a halo product, I don't expect much in the way of direct sales with the XxX.

I disagree.
I expect a sudden jump in sales with the Xbox One X, but then after the early adoption period (I.E After this holiday period) sales will taper off.
There is always a big rush towards new hardware as soon as it's released. - Heck... It even happened with the WiiU and that was a colossal failure.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2012/nov/19/wii-u-launch-us-problems

And considering the Xbox One X pre-orders sold out... Well. I expect the Xbox platform to do well over *this* holiday period and the games might carry it next year, but then crash and burn in 2019.

https://www.gamespot.com/articles/xbox-one-x-pre-order-sales-outpace-any-previous-xb/1100-6452864/


caffeinade said:

I think we could see the Switch, or a version of it at the price of about $200 before the end of 2020.
That would be a large driver in sales especially combined with Pokemon, natural celebrity endorsement, and enhanced visibility.
The Switch is finally the console that could potentially break into the mainstream in a good way for the industry (ie, not like the Wii, or as a media hub like the PS2).
The weakest part of the visual design is how it looks in the dock, everything else (like a big vent at the top) can and should be nullified by a Switch revision.

Anyway the numbers are wild guesses that I came up with on the spot.

I am hoping for a Switch hardware revision to lure me into the ecosystem. I'm not happy with the hardware as it is right now, but Nintendo could very quickly and easily change my mind for the better.

Don't get me wrong, I don't expect the XxX to flop, it will very likely sell over a million units.
I predict that it will sell around 2 - 4 million lifetime alone.

I think it will have more of an effect on the Xbox One S than what will be seen be measuring the sales of the XxX directly.
It is not a mass (10's of millions) market device, but will be used to market the lower rung option.

That is how I feel anyway.



Whenever Pokemon Switch comes out.




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Azzanation said:
Nintendo have used 2 of there big cards already with Mario and Zelda this year. Pokemon and Metroid 4 become there next hand however we forget X1 still has Halo 6 and Sea of Thieves as there next big line up. So the way its going i see 4 years if MS next hand doesnt do well which i daubt will be the case. So expect big numbers from X1 next year.

Did you just compared Pokemon to Sea of Thieves when it comes to selling systems? Wow...

Did you forget Microsoft already played the Halo Card with Halo 5?

Im sorry, but did you really compared Pokemon to Sea of Thieves?!

IMO the Xbox One family will remain at No. 3 (Or No. 4 if we are counting the 3DS), so obviously how long will depend on how fast the gap will grow month after month.



Probably 4 years, perhaps 3 if they can make it keep strong sells and provide HW to the market.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

The switch is still having stock issue, and has a ton more games to come.
While XB1 seems to be releasing less and less games while concentrating on putting those games on PC.

Two seems a bit too early. Three is possible. But 4 seems like a given. Which is fairly hilarious since the X1 has a (almost) 4 year advantage. Almost poetic.



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I never like to project that far forward... it's possible that the Scorpio will give that brand some life.

Still, it seems like the Switch could surpass it as early as late 2019, though I'd imagine 2020 is more likely. Personally, I hope it doesn't and that both sell really well. I miss the days when all three were chuggging along simultaneously :p



The correct answer is "never".

Within the next 3 years, Microsoft will release the next generation XBox. It will be backwards compatible with the XBox One, so technically, I would still consider that part of the X1 family. The next gen release will cause a spike in sales, putting it above Switch numbers.

Second, the poll specifically said Switch, and not Switch family. Within 3 years, Nintendo will release a Switch XL or Switch Lite (some sort of hardware revision). The original Switch model sales will drop, and never pass the sales of the X1 family.

Third, the sales numbers required for this to happen need the Switch to sell Wii-like numbers. I don't see that as being likely at the current price point, but it is possible Nintendo will get more aggressive with price to gain market share.

Lastly, I think that mobile games will continue to erode handheld sales, so the Switch will not follow the standard sales curve. I think it may peak in its 2nd year before slowing down (instead of 3rd or 4th year as is the case with typical consoles).